The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 13
Betting NFL games can be a blast. Whether you take the time to analyze each line and cash in big, or you do it for the fun — share your bets with friends and tilt with one another in a group chat. Either way, having another layer of interest in your weekly football-watching is great. A lot of times, whether you like or not, you’re not alone, either.
And that’s where numberFire’s oddsFire tool comes in. oddsFire breaks down the differences in betting odds, lines, and totals across a number of sportsbooks, but it also shows us what percentage of total bets and money is being laid on any line at FanDuel Sportsbook. Using oddsFire, you can then decide if you would like to align yourself with the betting public — and enjoy the sweat together — or go against the grain to capitalize on an over-hyped situation.
In this weekly article, we’re here to dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public’s heavy investment.
After Week 12, no one in their right mind can say that the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs are in the same league — even if they are in the same division. The Broncos are coming off of a game in which they had to start a receiver at quarterback, leading to a blowout loss — their third in four games — at the hands of the New Orleans Saints. Meanwhile, the Chiefs put an offensive onslaught on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, passing for 462 yards en route to their sixth straight win.
By our rankings, the Chiefs are 21 spots ahead of the Broncos, and they rank first in pass offense and third overall. They’re also 15th defensively, though Denver checks in at 6th behind a surprisingly good pass defense. But still, Patrick Mahomes and team are 6-5 against the spread and 3-2 when favored by double digits, according to Killer Sports. Going back to last year, that makes them 6-3 in such games, all of which have come on their home field.
The Broncos are split against the spread, but they are 0-2 when getting more than seven points as underdogs. Those 89% of people (91% of money) betting on the Chiefs to cover should feel good about it. They have been bet up from -13.5, and you’re not sacrificing much in terms of value. Taking the Chiefs with the points returns more than $95 for every $100 laid.
Eagles–Packers is expected to be the NFC version of Broncos-Chiefs, given an 8.5-point spread in the home team’s favor. The Pack were so highly favored that they opened at -439 on the moneyline before falling to where they are now with heavy bets in the opposite direction.
Speaking of opposites, Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz are on totally different sides of the NFL quarterback spectrum this year. While Rodgers is second among qualified starters with 0.37 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back (Mahomes is first), Wentz is all the way down at -0.12 Passing NEP per drop back where he joins the likes of Andy Dalton, Drew Lock and Jeff Driskel. As a result, their offenses sit 2nd and 28th, respectively, and their teams are 7th and 25th in our overall rankings.
But still, are the 86% of bets and 81% of money being put on the Packers justified? The betting trends answer in the affirmative. Green Bay is 6-2 as a favorite and a cool 3-0 in games they have been favored by at least seven. Betting on Rodgers in December at Lambeau doesn’t seem like a bad idea anyway.
There are a lot more games with sub-50 totals than we have become accustomed to so far in 2020. Some of those are being played in cold environments outdoors, but one that seems a little off is in a dome as the New Orleans Saints meet the Atlanta Falcons.
In the two teams’ last 11 meetings, going back to 2015, their average over/under is 52.5 with an actual average of 49.9 points between them. Only three of those have surpassed the over, but two have come in the confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. In that same venue, the over and under are knotted at three games apiece this season, and Atlanta and their opponents have averaged 52.2 points. The Saints and their opponents have averaged 49.2 in road games and 50.1 points per game overall — albeit with Drew Brees, not Taysom Hill, behind center.
For all the differences in play style, Hill has helped New Orleans to 24 (against Atlanta) and 31 points in their last two games. The under has hit in both, but look for Atlanta to carry momentum from a 43-point outburst a week ago. Don’t let yourself be talked off of siding with the public (83% of bets) and money (74%) backing a higher-scoring game than the experts think.