The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 14
Betting NFL games can be a blast. Whether you take the time to analyze each line and cash in big, or you do it for the fun — share your bets with friends and tilt with one another in a group chat. Either way, having another layer of interest in your weekly football-watching is great. A lot of times, whether you like or not, you’re not alone, either.
And that’s where numberFire’s oddsFire tool comes in. oddsFire breaks down the differences in betting odds, lines, and totals across a number of sportsbooks, but it also shows us what percentage of total bets and money is being laid on any line at FanDuel Sportsbook. Using oddsFire, you can then decide if you would like to align yourself with the betting public — and enjoy the sweat together — or go against the grain to capitalize on an over-hyped situation.
In this weekly article, we’re here to dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public’s heavy investment.
This week features only three divisional games, and one of them takes place in the NFC North between the 9-3 Green Bay Packers and 5-7 Detroit Lions. Accordingly, our models have the Pack ranked fifth overall or 25 whole spots ahead of the home Lions. While Aaron Rodgers and company rate first offensively, Detroit’s defense is dead last overall and against the pass. Is 7.5 points enough?
Per Killer Sports, going back to 2016 the Packers have gone just 3-6 against the spread when facing the Lions. They covered a 6.5-point spread earlier in the year, but before that, they failed to cover in six straight meetings — four straight-up losses in that span. However, Green Bay was missing Rodgers for a couple of those meetings, and this year is totally different. Behind second-year coach Matt LaFleur, the Pack is 8-4 against the spread and 5-1 when favored by at least six points.
Meanwhile, a disappointing Detroit club is 4-7-1 against the spread and have lost by an average of six points — a number that rises to 8.6 in their five home games. 90% of bets and 87% of the money is on Green Bay, and rightfully so in this spot.
This seems to be the year of ‘believe it or nots’, and that applies directly to this Washington Football Team. At only 5-7, and behind their third quarterback (one who once thought he may never play again), they find themselves in the lead in the lowly NFC East. They are fresh off defeating an undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers squad, and because of that, they are getting a lot of love as road underdogs to the 6-6 San Francisco 49ers.
At this time, Ron Rivera’s team has drawn 86% of bets and 95% of the money being laid on the moneyline this week. The spread has stayed pat at 3.5-points in the Niners’ favor, while the moneyline has moved from Washington +163 at the open to +142 here. At other books, though, the odds are +145 and as high as +155.
Washington has a mere five wins to their ledger this season, yet they have three wins in their nine games listed as underdogs. And of those three two have been on the road when getting 2.5 and 6.5 points, respectively. No one can blame you for siding with the feel-good Football Team in Week 14, but the Niners are favored for a reason, and the value has washed up a bit on the visitors. Trend carefully.
This matchup is of teams that have left a lot to be desired in 2020. Acquisitions and development have been overshadowed by injuries and underwhelming seasons from top players. Nevertheless, these two teams offer offensive firepower, particularly in their passing games. While the Atlanta Falcons check-in 15th in offensive pass efficiency the Los Angeles Chargers, led by rookie Justin Herbert, are 16th in passing.
Thanks to their high-volume, high-efficiency passing game, Atlanta and L.A. put up a respectable 25.9 and 23.1 points per game. If you were to look at their most recent games, though, you would see a combined 16 points between them, so there is a chance for a dud despite what the public thinks. And what they expect is a game in which they go for at least 49 points between, as shown by 93% of bets and 97% of the money being placed on the over here.
The data follows suit. This season, the Falcons have had 5 of 12 hit the over and 2 of 5 when the total is set south of 50. As for the Chargers, their games have surpassed the oddsmakers’ number 7 of 12 times and in 5 of 9 with a sub-50 over/under. Only one of their last six games have come up short. Everything checks out for this one to be a reasonably high-scoring game. Just don’t expect a 60-point shootout.