The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 15
Betting NFL games can be a blast. Whether you take the time to analyze each line and cash in big, or you do it for the fun — share your bets with friends and tilt with one another in a group chat. Either way, having another layer of interest in your weekly football-watching is great. A lot of times, whether you like or not, you’re not alone, either.
And that’s where numberFire’s oddsFire tool comes in. oddsFire breaks down the differences in betting odds, lines, and totals across a number of sportsbooks, but it also shows us what percentage of total bets and money is being laid on any line at FanDuel Sportsbook. Using oddsFire, you can then decide if you would like to align yourself with the betting public — and enjoy the sweat together — or go against the grain to capitalize on an over-hyped situation.
In this weekly article, we’re here to dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public’s heavy investment.
This week’s premier matchup pits the Kansas City Chiefs against the New Orleans Saints, with the visitors opening as 3.5-point favorites. They are up to -4 at another book, check-in at -158 on this week’s moneyline, and are drawing 90% of bets on the spread. They’re getting an even greater percentage (93%) of the money being lied on either side of that line.
But are the 12-win Chiefs that much better than the 10-win Saints — on the road nonetheless? Patrick Mahomes and company have won eight straight games including a come-from-behind win on the road a week ago. They have won all seven of their road games this year, doing so by an average of 9.4 points per game. According to Killer Sports, Kansas City has bested the spread in only three of those, which includes a 1-1 record when favored by less than a touchdown.
The Saints have been impressive on their home field this season and in those past. In 2020, they are 3-3 against the spread and 5-1 straight up, and going back to 2018 they are 11-14 against the spread. However, they have been underdogs in only two of those, both of which they won (by six points a game) and covered. The only question is whether Drew Brees or Taysom Hill is behind center for this one. Brees was recently designated to return from injured reserve, and if recent results are any indication he would give New Orleans a greater shot at covering.
Led by MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers are at the very top of the food chain when it comes to offenses. They rank first overall, and while they are second in passing they are seventh in rushing efficiency. Aaron Jones has surely done his part to make this the league’s most balanced offense. Could the Carolina Panthers possibly keep up?
The 4-9 Panthers are but 23rd in total defense and 25th against the pass. They’ve also surrendered 25.2 points per game in their six road games and 29.8 in their four losses away from Bank of America Stadium. As for the Packers they’ve won five of their six games at Lambeau behind 31.5 points, including 33.4 in their five victories. When favored by at least one score — as they are here (by 8.5) they are 3-0 in these games and 46-8 since Rodgers took over in 2008.
Though no other game is getting more than 81% of the moneyline bets, it makes total sense that the Packers are garnering 86% of the bets and 89% of the money. The numbers side with the betting public and to the tune of a $25 return on a $100 bet.
Not so surprisingly, this game is also getting a lot of love on the total. By efficiency, the two offenses are third and eighth according to our metrics. KC is second in scoring offense (31 points per game) while New Orleans is seventh at 28.3 points per contest. By averages alone they would blow past the over/under by 7.8 points thanks in par to the NFL’s 1st- and 11th-rated passing attacks.
For New Orleans, there have been some differences between the Saints under Brees and under Hill. With Brees at the helm the division leaders have averaged 30.5 points in the eight games he has played start to finish, whereas with Hill under center they have fallen to 24.3 a game even with two favorable matchups with the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, Mahomes has averaged 32.5 in the pair of contests that have taken place in the confines of a dome.
This season, Chiefs’ games have averaged 52.6 points per game and have beaten the set total in 5 of 13 games (2 pushes). On the road they’ve surpassed the over/under by 1.5 and up to 53.7 points per game. This year’s Saints have also seen the over win out four times in six home games, averaging 50.8 between them and their opponents. The total has remained level from the open, yet the over is drawing 94% of the bets and 92% of the money being bet on the number of total points. It’s probably best to follow the masses on this one.