The 3 Most Popular NFL Bets for Week 6
Betting NFL games can be a blast. Whether you take the time to analyze each line and cash in big, or you do it for the fun — share your bets with friends and tilt with one another in a group chat. Either way, having another layer of interest in your weekly football-watching is great. A lot of times, whether you like or not, you’re not alone, either.
And that’s where numberFire’s oddsFire tool comes in. oddsFire breaks down the differences in betting odds, lines, and totals across a number of sportsbooks, but it also shows us what percentage of total bets and money is being laid on any line at FanDuel Sportsbook. Using oddsFire, you can then decide if you would like to align yourself with the betting public — and enjoy the sweat together — or go against the grain to capitalize on an over-hyped situation.
In this weekly article, we’re here to dive into the three lines (one spread, one moneyline, one over/under) getting the most love, with the goal of deciding whether the numbers support or contradict the public’s heavy investment.
Overall, Tampa Bay and Green Bay check in fifth and sixth in our power rankings, respectively, and bring in records of 3-2 and 4-0 to this point. So you can understand the minimal spread, even if it might surprise you that the road Pack are the ones favored.
The public is not as surprised or deterred. Despite opening at -1.5, the Packers have received 91% of the bets and 85% of the money laid on their side of the spread. After all, they’re 4-0 against the spread through four games, averaging a margin of 12.8 points per game (8.0 on the road), according to data via Killer Sports. On the other end, the Bucs are 2-2-1 against the line this year, winning by 5.4 points per game with an average line of 3.3 in their favor. They are 2-0 straight-up at home, yet they did push against the Los Angeles Chargers.
When it comes to Brady-versus-Rodgers, there isn’t much to the tale of the tape. Somehow, they have only met twice before and have split those matchups (one in 2014 and the other in 2018). If anything, Rodgers’ recent play bodes well for his squad over Brady’s. His 0.52 Passing Net Expected Points per drop back ranks first among qualified passers while Brady’s 0.16 places him 11th. By that measure, siding with Rodgers and company seems like the preferred play in Week 6.
The theme between the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers is overachievement. Although Chicago had higher expectations with the combination of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles, not one sane person would admit that they had Chicago starting 4-1 through five weeks. And though many analysts and fans were high on Matt Rhule’s new-look Panthers, who would have thought they’d be 3-2 with wins over the Chargers, Cardinals and Falcons. Heck, they only lost to the Oakland Raiders by four in their opener.
Either way you go here, you are betting on an underdog that has surpassed projections to this point. As for the majority, they’re in on Foles and the Bears. The 1.5-point underdogs are drawing 90% of bets and 74% of the cash at FanDuel Sportsbook. They’ve gotten so much love that they’ve been bet down from +122 at the open to as low as +100 at another book, though there is a little sharp money hinting at the home team.
Carolina doesn’t have a strong record to work from, as Teddy Bridgewater and his host of playmakers have yet to be favored in any game, with a solid 1-1 record in their two home games. Chicago, however, is a cool 3-1 as the underdog and 2-0 when listed as road ‘dogs to date. And further, teams are 8-4 in the dozen games they have been ‘dogs of three points or fewer this season. Maybe 2020 — if anything positive — is the year of the winning underdog.
Yes, we have ourselves a battle of the birds, but these birds couldn’t be any more different. Led by our unchallenged top-ranked defense, the Baltimore Ravens are 4-1 and sit atop our overall power rankings through five games. But the thing is, Lamar Jackson hasn’t even been at his best, and the offense has yet to fully click through the air. By our math, they are 4th in rushing but 19th in passing, putting them back at 15th overall.
As for Philadelphia, they are off to a lousy 1-3-1 start and rate only better than Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and both New York squads. Injuries have taken a toll across the board, and while Carson Wentz has shouldered a ton of blame as a result of issues at both wideout and offensive line, the defense is just 27th overall and 29th against the pass.
These two are going in totally different directions, so the 7.5-point spread (in the Ravens’ favor) should bring some fear to all those hoping and betting on a high-scoring affair (90% of bets and 96% of money).
Only one of Baltimore’s five games have surpassed its set total, though three of Philly’s five have done the opposite. So far this year, in the 22 games with a spread of at least a touchdown, as well as a total lower than 50, the under has hit 50% of the time compared to the over’s 41%. And going back to all of last year, the under’s hit rate moves to 52% in a 91-game sample. Side with the under here in a potential blowout.