Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Will the Eagles Maintain Their Dominance Over the Giants?
Thursday Night Football is back, but it’s not exactly a marquee matchup. It’s been a rough start for these two NFC East foes. Both the New York Giants (1-5) and the Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) need to pick up the pace a bit, and they can do so starting tonight. Strangely, the winner of tonight’s game will be tied for the division lead. Yes, football has been ugly in the NFC East.
Let’s dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.
Points Could Be Hard to Find
It may be really hard to find points in this contest. For the home Eagles, they will be without some key skill players, including Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and Miles Sanders. Carson Wentz and center Jason Kelce are the only two original starters healthy from training camp. Woof.
The Giants are not exactly scorching the earth with their offense, either, and missing superstar Saquon Barkley for the season certainly isn’t helping. If we look at our power rankings, these are two of the bottom-11 offenses in the NFL by our schedule-adjusted metrics. The Eagles have yet to crack 30 points on the year, and the Giants have scored more than 20 points only a singular time.
Despite all of those negatives, one bright spot is where these teams lie in terms of situation-neutral pace. The Eagles clock in third on the year (26.1 seconds per play), while the Giants aren’t too far behind (27.3 seconds).
Bets to Consider
Despite all of the injuries to Philly’s offense, people are backing the Eagles — 79% of bets on the spread and 74% of cash are coming in on Philadelphia
We definitely think the Eagles are going to win, giving them 65.4% win odds. We also like the under as we think there is a 55.4% chance of that hitting, but the spread looks to be a total toss-up.
One fun single-game parlay bet is pairing the Eagles and the points with wide receiver Travis Fulgham. His receiving yards prop (60.5) and his catches (4.5) seem absurdly low given the recent injuries. A week ago, Fulgham turned 10 targets into 6 catches for 75 yards and a score, and he exploded for 13 catches for 152 yards the week before — though Philly played from behind in both of those games.
Historical Betting Trends
— These teams were both poor against-the-spread (ATS) bets last year, with the Giants going 7-9 ATS and the Eagles rocking a 7-10 mark.
— New York has stunk as a road team recently as well as an underdog. In their last 13 games as ‘dogs, they are a whopping 0-13 straight up.
— A furious fourth quarter rally by Wentz last week allowed the Eagles to hit the over versus the Ravens, but fear not, the under has gone 8-2 in the Eagles’ last 10 games.
— From a safety perspective, peep the Eagles on the moneyline. Philly has won seven in a row against the Giants.