TNF: Chargers-Raiders Player Props
Welcome into Prime Time Props Week 15! Thursday Night Football features the Los Angeles Chargers on the road at the Vegas Raiders. Vegas is laying three points on the FanDuel SportsBook, with the total sitting at 53.5. In regards to line movements, there is reverse contrarian line movement on the spread. The spread moved against Vegas, going from -3.5 to -3 despite the Raiders getting 69% of bets. The total also signals sharp movement to the under as it dropped from 54 to 53.5 despite 70% of bets on the over. When games are fishy, we look to the props.
Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-164)
There is a lot of juice on this over, but it’s for a good reason. The Chargers have given up 26 passing touchdowns this season, the second-most in the NFL. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has nine games with over 1.5 passing touchdowns this season. In fact, last week against the Colts, I almost bet his under, but luckily stayed away. Indianapolis allows the third fewest passing touchdowns in the league with just 17. The team that allows the least amount of passing touchdowns is the Los Angeles Rams with 14. Carr threw two touchdowns last week in addition to running one in.
Justin Herbert Over 25.5 Pass Completions (-105)
Justin Herbert is -850 on the FanDuel SportsBook to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. It’s for good reason as Herbert averages the third-most passing yards per game with 288.9. Only Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson average more. Herbert also has the ninth-most passing touchdowns with 24. As for completions, Herbert has the third most completions in the league with 331. He has hit over 25.5 pass completions eight times, including four straight weeks. Vegas struggles against the pass allowing 256.1 passing yards per game (25th).
Austin Ekeler Over 102.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
Austin Ekeler spent almost two months on injured reserve with a left hamstring injury. Ekeler missed the first meeting between the Chargers and Raiders, where the Raiders won 31-26. In that game, Kalen Ballage was the Chargers leading rusher with 69 yards on the ground. Since Ekeler’s return, the four-year veteran is averaging 114 total yards per game. Including the games prior to his injury, Ekeler hit this prop four times in seven games.
Vegas allows an average of 128.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 25th. Vegas just allowed 150 rushing yards to Colts running back Jonathan Taylor last week and 104 rushing yards to Jets back Ty Johnson the game prior. With the Raiders’ defense falling in the bottom ten in rushing and receiving yards, I like taking the rushing and receiving yards prop with the Chargers’ most versatile player.