TNF: Patriots-Rams Player Props
It’s time for prime time props! The New England Patriots are five-point road dogs at the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have the third-most sacks in the league with 36 and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher yet this season. With the Patriots relying on the run game, that matchup does not bode well for New England. My props all revolve around the Rams because the Patriots’ offense is too unpredictable. I don’t like running backs by committee and don’t trust Cam Newton throwing the ball. Newton’s thrown for 69 and 84 yards in the last two weeks. I’m staying away.
Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+126)
Jared Goff has only thrown over 1.5 passing touchdowns once in the last five weeks. The Patriots allow the third least passing touchdowns in the league with 16. Only the Rams (14), Dolphins (14), and Colts (15) have allowed fewer touchdowns in the air this season. Cam Newton can hit this under 1.5 passing touchdowns prop as well; however, Newton’s prop is juiced to -245. I’d rather take the risk on Goff getting this prop at +126.
Cooper Kupp Over 21.5 Longest Reception (-102)
The Patriots have allowed at least two receivers in eight games to hit over this prop. With the Rams’ ability to throw deep to Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods, I am more confident placing this bet knowing the Patriots can allow both to hit this over. In fact, that tends to happen more than it doesn’t. As for just one player hitting this prop per game, the Patriots have allowed that to happen 10 times this season. Kupp’s longest reception of at least 21.5 yards has hit seven times. This includes four of Kupp’s last five games.
Josh Reynolds Over 2.5 Receptions (-180)
I know this prop is heavily juiced, but I’m just trying to give you winners. With both teams being running backs by committee in addition to a loaded Rams receiving corps, it’s a tough game to find value in props. Rams wide receiver Josh Reynolds has the third-most targets on the team with 61. The only two Rams receivers with more are Cooper Kupp (105) and Robert Woods (98). Reynolds has hit over 2.5 receptions in five out of the last six games.
Tyler Higbee Anytime Touchdown (+370)
The Patriots have struggled against tight ends of late. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews had seven receptions for 61 yards, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce racked up 70 yards on three receptions and Texans tight end Jordan Akins caught five balls for 83 yards. Higbee has the second-most touchdown receptions for the Rams with four. He’s just one trip to the end zone behind Robert Woods at five.