TNF: Week 13 Patriots-Rams Betting Preview, Picks, and Props
The theme to the Hollywood script for these two teams has to be redemption with brushings of a Cinderella comeback story.
The LA Rams came into 2020 off a disappointing season where they missed the playoffs just a year after going to the Super Bowl. Question marks arose about quarterback Jared Goff and head coach Sean McVay, and many picked them to finish last in their division.
In New England, the marriage between Bill Belichick and Tom Brady came to an end with the GOAT leaving the Patriots for sunny Tampa Bay. Coming from Carolina, Cam Newton came in to take the reins after a lost season with the Panthers, where he played in just two games in 2018. Few thought the Patriots would compete for a spot in the postseason.
Yet here we are with the Rams sitting atop the NFC West while the Patriots have won four of their past five to get right in the mix for an AFC Wild-Card berth.
New England is coming off an impressive 45-0 beatdown of the Chargers on the west coast. Now they have the rare chance to get two wins in the same stadium in four days. After deciding to stay out in California rather than make the cross-country trip back to New England just to again fly west a few days later for their meeting with the Rams, the Patriots will be back in SoFi Stadium to clash with LA’s other team. Avoiding the extra travel time should bring Belichick’s team in a little fresher on the short week. This will be the first time these two teams hook up since New England dropped the Rams in 2019’s Super Bowl. While much is different, many teams have stayed the same.
Los Angeles can still boast a formidable offense. The Rams have the number three ranked offense in the NFL, putting up over 395 yards per game. LA provides a balanced attack with top ten rankings in both passing and rushing. The numbers have paid off as the Rams can equal their 2019 win total with a victory on Thursday night.
Not so fast, says Cam Newton’s Patriots. Newton is amid a great comeback campaign leading New England’s rushing attack. The former Panther is third in rushing yards among quarterbacks with 435 yards on the ground this season. He’s also the top pivot in rushing touchdowns with 11 and is just two scores back of the overall league leader. League MVP Lamar Jackson is the only other QB with more rushing attempts. With much thanks to their signal-caller, New England has the NFL’s third-ranked rushing offense rumbling for 150.9 per week.
Aaron Donald and the Rams won’t make it easy for the Pats to move the ball on the ground. LA is giving up the third least rushing yards per game on just 3.9 yards per carry. Donald is better known for defending the pass where he’s second in the league with 11 sacks on the year. The two-time defensive player of the year is a huge reason the Rams also boast the league’s top pass defense allowing just 198 yards per game.
The Patriots are no slouch on the defensive end either. New England is giving up just over 21 points per game, seventh-best in the NFL. They also have been good at creating turnovers with 14 interceptions on the year. Only one other team has more picks than the Pats in 2020. Expect their pass defenders to look for the pick on Goff as the Rams QB is tied for fifth with ten interceptions.
The secondary can also hang their head high with the third-lowest completions allowed total in the NFL. New England comes in with the 12th overall ranked defense to counter the Rams attack.
Expect Belichick to come up with a grinding game plan to keep this one close and New England within striking distance. Both defenses are tough and offenses inconsistent, so a low-scoring slow-paced game would not be a surprise.
- Patriots cover +5 (-106)
- Patriots cover alternate spread +7.5 (-160)
- Under 44.5 total points scored (-110)
- Cam Newton rushing or receiving touchdown (+110)
- Jared Goff under 263.5 passing yards (-122)
- Damien Harris over 48.5 rushing yards (-110)
Quick Hit Trends
- Patriots are 5-1 against the spread in their past six Thursday games.
- Patriots are 1-6-1 against the spread in their past eight games following an ATS win.
- Rams are 6-1-1 against the spread in their past eight games in December.
- Under is 4-0 in Patriots past four games overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rams past five home games.