NFL Draft Betting: Finding the Best Price Across the Industry
If placing a bet, just like buying any sort of good or service, it makes sense to shop around and find the right place. Just a quick glance at similar draft bets on DraftKings and FanDuel will lead to the realization that they are very rarely in perfect symmetry on prices. Therefore, this article will cover where to bet specific bets.
First Round Specials
Nearly across the board, the prices for first round specials are more enticing on DK. First round special best bets were covered in an article on SportsGrid so this article is more geared towards finding the best price on suggested bet values. Part of a bet’s strength is dictated by the pricing and the pricing is often stronger for first round specials on DK:
Total QBs Drafted in the First Round: Under 4.5 (-560 DK vs. -700 FD)
If attempting to win $100 on a QB wager, bettors would need to risk almost $150 less on DK comparatively to FD.
Total RBs Drafted in the First Round: Over 0.5 (-185 DK vs. -192 FD)
If attempting to win $100 off the over bet on RBs, the value is once again on DK, where a bettor would only need to bet $185 (compared to $192) for a $100 reward. The under is the side of this bet we prefer, especially since the line is an underdog, but it is priced at exactly +150 on each site.
Total WRs Drafted in the First Round: O/U is 5.5 on DK with over -200 vs. O/U of 6.5 on FD with under -260
According to market pricing, the expected number of wide receivers to be selected in the first round this year is six, which is a number that has only been reached once over the course of the last decade. If attempting to attack an under, it makes sense to make the bet on FD where you get the cushion of an additional receiver, even if you have to lay -260 instead of -200.
Total Offensive Linemen Drafted in the First Round: Under 6.5 (+127 DK vs. +128 FD)
Of all the first-round specials, this is one where the pricing/context is more favorable on FD, and it is only by the slightest of margins. If placing a $100 bet on under 6.5, you would win an additional dollar by placing the bet on FD.
Player Draft Specials
The over/under on Tua Tagovailoa has moved to pick 5.5 (started at 3.5) and the under is now the favorite. Whereas the under is listed as -155 on DK, it is only priced at -140 on FD.
If expecting the Dolphins to pony up and still select Tagovailoa at the fifth pick despite the health concerns, there is a serious difference in pricing across the two sites as well. On FD, the Dolphins are priced at -110 for Tagovailoa’s landing spot but the Dolphins are even money (+100) on DK. If not looking to pay juice on the bet, DK is once again the preferred spot to place a wager, and the same holds true for betting him to the Chargers (+210 on FD vs. +250 on DK).
Depending on expected landing spot for Tagovailoa, bettors may choose to place on a bet on the Justin Herbert landing spot as well. If expecting Tagovailoa to land with the Dolphins, the most logical landing spot for Herbert is with the Chargers, and the price for the Chargers is more profitable on DK (+200 vs. +140 on FD). However, if believing the Dolphins will pass on Tagovailoa for another QB, the Dolphins landing spot is more profitable for bettors on FD (+120 vs. +100 on DK).
The moral of this article is to research the price on your bets before placing them because there may be a superior price elsewhere and maximizing returns is one of the key factors to becoming profitable.