NFL Draft Betting Odds: Cornerback Props and Odds
The 2020 NFL Draft class has a solid crop of cornerbacks, as is typically the case in any draft class, as at least three cornerbacks have been taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2010 (only two went in the first round in 2009). Sites are offering a limited number of bets for the position specifically but at least there are more bets available at cornerback than the other secondary position (safety). At DraftKings Sportsbook, the over/under for a number of cornerbacks being selected in the first round is set at 4.5 and there are multiple other player-specific bets at the position being offered as well. Most of the other bets are centered around Jeffrey Okudah but there are bets in which some of the other cornerback talents come into play. If betting the cornerback position, it is best to have a strong opinion on the Okudah landing spot or a strong opinion on the number of first-round cornerbacks in general.
NFL Draft Odds to Be the First and Second Cornerback Drafted
Odds to be the first cornerback drafted:
Jeffrey Okudah (-3335 DK)
C.J. Henderson (+700 DK)
Kristian Fulton (+2500 DK)
Odds to be second cornerback draft:
C.J. Henderson (-715 DK)
Jeffrey Okudah (+1000 DK)
Kristian Fulton (+1200 DK)
A.J. Terrell (+2000 DK)
The likelihood of the first two cornerbacks off the board to be Okudah/Henderson 1-2 is so solidified that FanDuel has chosen to not even offer these bets. According to Grinding the Mocks, which compiles the results of thousands of mock drafts, the expected draft positions (EDPs) of Okudah and Henderson are 4.4 and 14.5 respectively. By comparison, Fulton features an EDP of 24.6, so there is almost exactly a 10.0 pick expected difference between Henderson and the next player at the position. If taking one of these bets, the odds on Henderson are much more favorable, but it would still take a bet of $71.50 to return a $10 profit. In all likelihood, there are more favorable bets to attack in the NFL Draft, albeit Henderson as the second cornerback off the board is a gigantic favorite to hit.
Number of Cornerbacks Drafted in the First Round
DraftKings has set the over/under of cornerbacks selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft at 4.5 with juice to the over. When looking at historical data, the cornerback position is year-to-year one of the most consistent in terms of a number of players selected in the first 32 picks. Over the course of the past 10 drafts, between 3-5 cornerbacks have been selected in the first round on each and every occasion:
2010 – 5
2011 – 3
2012 – 5
2013 – 4
2014 – 5
2015 – 5
2016 – 5
2017 – 5
2018 – 3
2019 – 3
Average during sample: 4.3
Although the past two years have each seen exactly three cornerbacks taken in the round, this year’s crop seems to be more plentiful according to the mocks. Five separate cornerbacks feature EDPs of 30.3 or lower but the final three players are cutting it close in terms of the first round.
Cumulatively, Jeff Gladney, Trevon Diggs and A.J. Terrell have been drafted as players 29, 31 and 32 according to average EDPs amongst all players, which means the under hits if two of these players are booted from the first round because teams instead decide to take a quarterback, Zach Baun, Jalen Reagor, Grant Delpit or a running back (RB). Essentially, there are multiple possible paths for both the under and over hitting, and it should be a rocky road either way. Betting this over/under with a high degree of confidence is virtually impossible, but if a few teams at the end decide to go receiver and/or safety over a corner, the under pays slightly better.
Sporadic Other Cornerback Bets
DraftKings specifically is offering props for draft spots on multiple of the projected first round corners:
Jeffrey Okudah Over (-134)/Under (+110) Pick 4.5
C.J. Henderson Over (+135)/Under (-167) Pick 15.5
Kristian Fulton Over (-134) /Under (+110) Pick 24.5
Assuming the industry mocks are at all trustworthy, Okudah makes a ton of sense for the Lions at pick number three overall especially considering they just lost Darius Slay (PHI) to the Eagles. With a glaring hole at the cornerback position, Okudah’s likeliest draft spot is number three, but that, of course, is only if they choose to keep the pick. Still, the likelihood of them keeping the pick outweighs the odds of the pick being traded, so the -134 line seems light (and there appears to be nice value in taking the under).
Henderson’s EDP over 1,849 analyzed drafts sits at 14.5 and the over/under on him is 15.5. The line is almost right on the money but the under is properly-favored.
As for Fulton, his EDP over 1,915 analyzed drafts sits at 24.2, so his odds should be closer to a toss-up than they are being priced. Common knowledge would suggest the under is the proper bet here with it both paying better and being the likeliest scenario in industry mocks.
DraftKings is also offering player to be drafted first odds between the likes of:
Jeff Gladney (-121) vs. Jaylon Johnson (+100)
…and they are offering odds for Jeffrey Okudah to be either the first or second defensive player selected in the draft:
Jeffrey Okudah as First Defensive Player off Board: +800 (DK)
Jeffrey Okudah as Second Defensive Player off Board: -182 (DK)
Chase Young is almost assuredly going to be the first defensive player selected at second overall so betting Okudah to be that guy is close to throwing away money. As for being the second defensive player selected, it is between Okudah and Isaiah Simmons, although there is a potential for Simmons to fall if the Giants trade down so a team can select at QB at pick number four. Okudah is the overwhelming favorite to be the second defensive player selected but -182 is a virtually appropriate price.