NFL Draft Betting Odds: Player Drafted In The Top Five Overall Picks
Betting The Top Five NFL Draft Picks
While this NFL Draft is slated to be one of if not the wildest/most unpredictable draft in the history of the league, you’d be surprised at how much you already know.
For instance, we know Joe Burrow is going to be selected with the first pick in the draft. If you didn’t see that one coming, log off.
At this point, the Washington Redskins have all but said that Chase Young is their guy. He’s going to be the second player selected in this year’s draft.
We know that the Detroit Lions have a massive hole to fill in their secondary with the departure of Darius Slay. Enter cornerback Jeffrey Okudah, the likely third selection in the NFL draft.
Yes, Tua Tagovailoa has murky medicals. We can’t say for sure that the Miami Dolphins will select him at number five. It could be Justin Herbert getting the call instead. Heck, if Herbert isn’t the Dolphins’ guy, they very well could select an offensive lineman, receiver or a safety. After all, these are all big needs for this team. Keep in mind the Dolphins own three selections in the first round this year. Fins up!
And then there’s the New York football Giants and Dave Gettleman. Linebacker Isaiah Simmons is so talented that the Giants should draft him. They probably won’t as they continue to be linked to offensive linemen. They really do need an offensive tackle more than a linebacker at this point. Someone has to protect Daniel Jones’ blindside.
Before we move any further, here are the nominees on the sportsbooks for players drafted in the top five overall picks:
Joe Burrow ( N/A on DK / -200000 FD)
Chase Young (N/A on DK / -200000 FD)
Jeffrey Okudah (-200 DK / -400 FD)
Tua Tagovailoa (-150 DK / -126 FD)
Justin Herbert (-125 DK / -112 FD)
Jedrick Wills (-125 DK / -160 FD)
Isaiah Simmons (+225 DK / +115 FD)
Tristan Wirfs (+300 DK / +250 FD)
Derrick Brown (+400 DK / +340 FD)
Andrew Thomas (+400 DK / +550 FD)
Mekhi Becton (+700 DK / +550 FD)
C.J. Henderson (+1000 DK / N/A on FD)
Jordan Love (+2000 DK / +1600 FD)
Jerry Jeudy (+3300 DK / +1900 FD)
Javon Kinlaw (+3300 DK / N/A on FD)
CeeDee Lamb (+4000 DK / +2500 on FD)
Henry Ruggs (+5000 DK / +2500 on FD)
K’Lavon Chaisson (+10000 DK / N/A on FD)
You’re not making any real money betting Burrow and Young to be drafted in the top five. Their prices are very efficient.
Okudah at -200? That’s much better. He’s heavily linked to a Lions’ team that as I noted before is in dire need of a cornerback.
Isaiah Simmons at +225 is ultimately a strong bet all things considered. According to Grinding the Mocks, in 2,276 analyzed mocks, Simmons has an expected draft rank of five. If it’s a “best player available” pick, Simmons should be the pick.
After Simmons, things get interesting and fast. Leveraging data between betting markets and Grinding the Mocks, there seems to be a legitimate dissonance with offensive linemen. On one hand, Jedrick Wills (-125 DK / -160 FD) is favored by the betting markets to be selected in the top five. On the other hand, it’s Tristan Wirfs (+300 DK / +250 FD) who has the much better value tag to be selected in the top five and Grinding the Mocks has a higher draft position on Wirfs than Wills. According to Grinding the Mocks, in 2,157 analyzed, Wirfs’ expected draft position is seven. Wills has an expected draft position of nine in 1,730 analyzed mocks. According to PFF, Andrew Thomas and Tristan Wirfs are ranked ahead of Jedrick Wills in their prospect rankings. We can’t say for sure that Wirfs will be drafted ahead of Wills and IN the top five, but we can confidently say that he’s a better bet at his price tags when leveraging all of the data.
Want to double down? Tristan Wirfs is a +350 on DraftKings sportsbook to be the first offensive linemen drafted. Want to take it a step further? Wirfs is a +350 on FanDuel sportsbook to be the first draft pick by the New York Giants. These are all great price tags considering that Wirfs and Wills seem to be very similar prospects yet one is significantly pricier than the other.
ANOTHER BET THAT YOU SHOULD BE CONSIDERING:
C.J. Henderson (+125 DK / +130 FD) to be drafted in the top 10 overall picks. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a lot of needs, but you could argue that addressing their secondary is at the top of the priority list. According to Grinding the Mocks, in 1,975 analyzed mocks, Henderson’s expected draft position is 14. He has a realistic shot at the top 10.