ANDRE JOHNSON’S SEASON IS MARRED BY INCONSISTENCY
Andre Johnson’s huge Fantasy game this past weekend has many Fantasy owners excited about his 2012 season. However, Johnson’s season has been marred by inconsistency. While he’s ranked 10th in overall Fantasy points, he only has a 60 percent Quality Success Rate (QSR), which ties him for 27th place in consistency. This is not the consistency you want from your WR1. He’s only earned back-to-back Quality Games once all season.
Each week this season, the Quality Games Review will be here to assist you. It should help you see who is performing above average to help your team win, along with those who may be hurting your chances. As the year goes on, consistency trends will start to show the players that are becoming consistent performers and those who are one-week wonders.
The Quality Game Score is the awarding of a Quality Game to a player each week when they exceed the average points scored in your league for that position. The more Quality Games a player is awarded each year, the more consistent that player is, and the more beneficial they are to your Fantasy team. The scoring method used will be a standard PPR format, with four points for passing touchdowns and six for all others.
So, let’s begin the review…
Quarterbacks - (Quality Game Factor – 18.27)
Quality Game Earners – Week 11
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Matt Schaub has not been very consistent this season, apparent from his 40 percent QSR for the season. However, Schaub became only the 14th quarterback in NFL season to throw for 500+ yards in a game. Peyton Manning continued his masterful season so far, with his eighth straight Quality Game. Cam Newton and Tony Romo have both picked up their game from a consistency standpoint by earning their third and fourth straight Quality Games respectively.
Josh Freeman continued his current hot streak with his sixth straight Quality Game. Andrew Luck continues to be red hot. He is ranked seventh in total points and tied for third in consistency. Chad Henne came back from the “dead” and rejuvenated the Jaguars pass offense. He should be a starter this week. However, since the bye weeks are over, there may not be much need for him. Colin Kaepernick responded well to his debut versus the Bears, but Alex Smith should keep the starting job.
Here is a group of those bad surprises; quarterbacks who didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. Matt Ryan had an uncharacteristic horrible week. Matty Ice melted like Frosty in a green house.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD - Quarterbacks
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Tom Brady remains as the sole perfect quarterback. Drew Brees continues to hold the top spot in overall points. Robert Griffin III had a great week and earned back the No. 2 spot in overall points but he stills hovers at the 70 percent QSR range with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and others
Running Backs - (Quality Game Factor – 10.35)
Quality Game Earners – Week 11
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It wasn’t the best week for the Holy Trinity of Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy, but all three earned Quality Games and stayed perfect for the year. Jamaal Charles earned back-to-back Quality Games for the first time since Week 5. C.J. Spiller had the whole backfield to himself with Fred Jackson injured, and while he did earn a Quality Game, I believe greater things were expected of him. Fantasy owners are so fickle! Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both have proven themselves worthy as rookies to be listed in the Expected section.
Marcel Reece filled in nicely once again for Darren McFadden this past weekend, as he took the top spot overall. LaRod Stephens-Howling continues to perform well, even though he’s getting further away from Halloween. Keep expectations low. Bilal Powell earned most of his points from his two rushing touchdowns. As I mentioned before, the Saints backfield is a crapshoot; stay away from it until Darren Sproles comes back, and even then it may be inconsistent.
Below is a list of some of the top running backs in football that did not earn a Quality Game this week. Matt Forte had his second consecutive miss and Alfred Morris is tanking as expected.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Running Backs
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There are still only four perfects. The Quality Quartet continues to dominate the consistency rankings, especially when you consider that other than Marshawn Lynch’s 90 percent QSR, no other running back has earned eight Quality Games. Doug Martin takes over the top spot in total points and has an 80 percent QSR. Rookie of the year? Maybe!
Jamaal Charles has been a little more consistent recently, but he’s certainly my poster boy forhigh pointtotals and horrible consistency. Reggie Bush continues to fade as the season goes on.
Wide Receiver - (Quality Game Factor – 10.85)
Quality Game Earners – Week 11
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Do we expect Andre Johnson to be at the top of the Fantasy points? Absolutely! However, we also expect him to be on the weekly Quality Game earned list more than 60 percent of the time. He was a top five receiver pick in most leagues. And while he’s 10th for the season in total points, he needs to improve his consistency to earn his high draft pick. It’s good to see Calvin Johnson perform at a high level again; even though he’s playing through pain every week. A.J. Green is a guaranteed top three pick at wide receiver next season, maybe even No. 1.
Danny Amendola continues his consistent ways after returning from injury. TY Hilton scored another big day as well this past week, as did Danario Alexander. If you’re looking for some consistent waiver wire potentials, these receivers have recently earned multiple Quality Games and could be waiting for you to pick them up: Brandon Stokley, Danario Alexander, Cecil Shorts and Golden Tate.
Here is the list of top wide receivers that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. This list is huge again this week! Brandon Marshall had zero points at halftime, scored a touchdown and STILL didn’t earn a Quality Game!
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Wide Receivers
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Reggie Wayne continues to remain as the only perfect. However, breathing down his neck at a 90 percent QSR is the duo of A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas. Randall Cobb is this year’s Victor Cruz. He went practically undrafted, and yet he’s now ranked 11th in total points and tied for fifth in consistency with an 80 percent QSR.
Extreme disappointments include Larry Fitzgerald (21st in total points and 50 percent QSR) and Dwayne Bowe (27th in total points and 50 percent QSR).
Tight Ends - (Quality Game Factor – 9.40)
Quality Game Earners – Week 11
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Good news, Rob Gronkowski earned the top spot this past weekend. Bad news, he broke his fore arm and is out about six weeks. Vernon Davis is expected to be inconsistent, and he is. He had a great week this week, but he’s still at a 50 percent QSR for the season. Jason Witten earned his seventh straight Quality Game and is tied for first with eight Quality Games. Jimmy Graham and Owen Daniels just snuck in this week, but they still have the highest QSR at 89 percent for the year.
In case, you don’t know who Garrett Graham is, he’s the second tight end inHouston. He’s also probably not on anyone’s Fantasy roster other. He probably will get picked up in most leagues, but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. Marcedes Lewis was a fairly consistent tight end about three years ago, but this week he regained some luster and shined for the Jags,, and any Fantasy owner who had the guts to start him.
Here are the top tight ends that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. Tony Gonzalez went from awesome to bust this week as did most of the Falcons pass offense.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Tight Ends
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There are five tight ends with eight Quality Games, and yet, four of the top 10 in total points aren’t even over a 60 percent QSR, including No. 2 overall, Tony Gonzalez. See, I told you that tight ends weren’t very consistent.
There’s your Week 11 list of Quality Games earned. Start watching these Quality rankings to find your next gem on the waiver wire and then let me know how they work out in your drive towards the championship!
Week Twelve – Quality Matchups
My Quality Game research has also shown that most Quality Games are earned during a Quality Matchup. This is a game where the player is either playing at home OR away versus a bottom ten defense. If you want more analysis to help with setting your lineup each week, check out the Xclusive Edge Package and you will see the Historical Consistency rankings each week.
So, let’s take a look at the schedule.
This week’s home teams are:
Detroit, Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Miami, Tampa Bay, Chicago, San Diego, Arizona, New Orleans, New York Giants and Philadelphia
Teams that are playing away versus a bottom ten defense include:
San Francisco@New Orleans
As I mentioned above, the Fantasy players on the teams in these Quality Matchups have a much higher rate of performing above average in comparison to the other players at that position.
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