HEATH MILLER QUITE CONSISTENT IN 2012
Over the past five seasons, when I spoke about consistent tight ends, Heath Miller was not a part of the conversation, ever! In 2012, that has been a different story. Miller is now tied for first with an 86 percent Quality Success Rate (QSR) and is tied for fourth in total points. Prior to this season, his highest QSR ever for a season was 56 percent. The new offensive scheme seems to fit Miller very consistently.
Each week this season, the Quality Games Review will be here to assist you. It should help you see who is performing above average to help your team win, along with those who may be hurting your chances. As the year goes on, consistency trends will start to show the players that are becoming dependable performers and who are one-week wonders.
The Quality Game Score is the awarding of a Quality Game to a player each week when they exceed the average points scored in your league for that position. The more Quality Games a player is awarded each year, the more consistent that player is and the more beneficial they are to your Fantasy team. The scoring method used will be a standard PPR format with four points for passing touchdowns and six for all others.
Quarterbacks - (Quality Game Factor – 18.27)
Quality Game Earners – Week 8
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Matthew Stafford’s marginal, yet consistent, performance over recent weeks led many experts (including myself) to bench him based on him going up against a tough Seattle pass defense. However, Stafford was not impressed by their paper status and smoked them for the top spot this week. Tom Brady showed London just how impressive the Patriots still were, while Peyton Manning outdueled Drew Brees this past week. Matt Ryan returned from his bye week and never missed a beat with another Quality Game this past week.
Josh Freeman continued his current hot streak with his third straight Quality Game and fourth out of his last five games. Alex Smith made his fourth appearance on the good list. This doesn’t sound that great until you realize that he’s tied with Michael Vick and ahead of Cam Newton. Andrew Luck earned his fifth Quality Game out of his last six games. Blaine Gabbert surprised some folks with his second Quality Game of the season. That doubles last year’s production.
Here is a group of those bad surprises; quarterbacks who didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. This week’s list has the most big-name quarterbacks I’ve seen in a number of years.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD - Quarterbacks
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Tom Brady remains as the sole perfect quarterback as Drew Brees slipped off the list this week. Aaron Rodgers’ miss this week leaves him at 63 percent QSR. That is not first round material folks! The interesting part of the above numbers is the top four quarterbacks in total points are almost 30+ points higher than fifth place. Yet, their consistency is well, inconsistent. Robert Griffin III is first in total points but he only has a 75 percent QSR. Not bad, but not great for the top points scorer.
On the inconsistent side, the biggest surprises are quarterbacks like Cam Newton (ranked 14th overall and 43 percent QSR) and Tony Romo (18th and 43 percent) and Philip Rivers (26th) at 29 percent QSR. These Fantasy players are driving many to drink.
Running Backs - (Quality Game Factor – 10.35)
Quality Game Earners – Week 8
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As bad as the Eagles are, LeSean McCoy just keeps consistently rolling along. Matt Forte earned his third straight Quality Game and appears to be healthy. Chris Johnson also earned his third straight and fourth in his last five games. Adrian Peterson keeps fighting off injury scares and keeps Fantasy owners consistently happy. Willis McGahee continues to impress with his fourth straight Quality Game. He was almost forgotten in the drafts this past August and now he’s one of the most consistent backs in the league and is ranked 10th in total points.
He did it! Shonn Greene had only earned three straight Quality Games once in the past three seasons. Now, you can say he’s done it twice! Vick Ballard, Alex Green, Jonathan Dwyer and Rashad Jennings all earned their second straight Quality Games this past week. Some may be available on the waiver wire, so may not. Doug Martin is consistently looking like the stud rookie back that many folks felt he would be. He destroyed the Vikings last Thursday night. Trent Richardson is another back who’s doing a great job for Fantasy owners who took the chance on him. He’s still a little inconsistent, as represented by his 63 percent QSR even though he’s fourth in total points.
Below is a list of some of the top running backs in football that did not earn a Quality Game this week. Alfred Morris has failed in back-to-back weeks. Don’t be surprised to see Shanahan make a change if this keeps up.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Running Backs
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There are still only five perfects. You have the Holy Trilogy (Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy) and Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray. Of course,Murray’s injury is holding him at the perfect mark for now. Peterson is the only remaining eight game perfect.
Marshawn Lynch has been everything that he was last season. A top consistent Fantasy back regardless who is playing quarterback for the Seahawks as shown by his 88 percent QSR.
Wide Receiver - (Quality Game Factor – 10.85)
Quality Game Earners – Week 8
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I can’t say that I expected Demaryius Thomas to be so consistent this season. He took the second spot this week and is now seventh in total points and has an 86 percent QSR (which ties him for third place with five others). The biggest surprise in those five at 86 percent is Miles Austin. Austin is only 18th in total points but has been very consistent this season and ended up fifth this week. Some regulars who are slowly regaining their consistency are Marques Colston, Mike Wallace and Brandon Marshall.
Randall Cobb and James Jones both earned their fifth straight Quality Games this past weekend. Looking for some consistent waiver wire potentials? These receivers have recently earned multiple Quality Games and could be waiting for you to pick them up: Chris Givens, Kendall Wright and Titus Young. The potential waiver wire receivers with back-to-back Quality Games are Nate Washington, Santana Moss, Cecil Shorts, Andre Roberts and Brandon LaFell.
Here is the list of top wide receivers that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. This list is almost as big and significant as the quarterbacks list this week. Calvin Johnson is grossly underperforming due to double teams.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Wide Receivers
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Reggie Wayne remains perfect while Percy Harvin places the second spot in total points and consistency. However, the top receiver in total points is slipping with his consistency. Victor Cruz had a horrible week and now only has a 75 percent QSR. I wouldn’t worry too much about it. Randall Cobb may be this year’s Victor Cruz. Cobb was a basic no-name and is now ranked 12 overall and has a 75 percent QSR for the season.
Larry Fitzgerald is now ranked 16th for the season and is only at a 50 percent QSR. In addition, as I mentioned earlier, the pain of Calvin Johnson hovering at a 57 percent QSR and a 19th place ranking has to be the worst disappointment.
Tight Ends - (Quality Game Factor – 9.40)
Quality Game Earners – Week 8
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Yep, there were only 10 tight ends who earned Quality Games. And many of them were no-names like John Phillips and Dwayne Allen. At least the Top Five this week were familiar names. However, that leaves seven teams in a twelve team league pulling their hair out about the inconsistency of their starting tight ends.
Dustin Keller earned his second straight Quality Game of the year and may be worth looking at even though he’s on a bye this week. Tony Moeaki may be worth a pickup as well.
Here are the top tight ends that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. Tony Gonzalez has let me down a little with his recent inconsistency. Don’t panic though. He’ll be fine. Antonio Gates on the other hand, spurs panic.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Tight Ends
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Rob Gronkowski is becoming a force again. His total points would rank fifth for wide receivers. His consistency is low for him at 75 percent but he’s earned three straight. He has a bye this past week but he looks ready to dominate the remainder of the season. Another tight end who is dominating as of late is Jason Witten. He’s third in total points and has a 71 percent QSR. As I mentioned, Antonio Gates has a 17 percent QSR. He’s not himself this year. If you can trade him, do it.
Start watching these Quality rankings to find your next gem on the waiver wire and then let me know how they work out in your drive towards the championship!
Week Nine – Quality Matchups
My Quality Game research has also shown that most Quality Games are earned during a Quality Matchup. This is a game where the player is either playing at home OR away versus a bottom ten defense. If you want more analysis to help with setting your lineup each week, check out the Xclusive Edge Package and you will see the Historical Consistency rankings each week.
So, let’s take a look at the schedule.
These teams have a bye this week:
New England,New YorkJets,San FranciscoandSt. Louis
This week’s home teams are:
Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New Orleans, New York Giants, Oakland, San Diego, Seattle, Tennessee and Washington
Teams that are playing away versus a bottom ten defense include:
As I mentioned above, the Fantasy players on these teams in these Quality Matchups have a much higher rate of performing above average in comparison to the other players at that position.
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