Daily Fantasy Football Week 11 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS
Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 11 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? Lance Kendricks. Dead to me. It was another week of hot fiya value plays + the DR projections crushing it yet again, but still not getting the top plays down pat. Rodgers crushed for us last week, but Mike Evans was a massive disappointment, while both DJ and Le'Veon likely carried teams to a big win. The Eagles are probably the most frustrating team to deal with DFS wise, as they just don't understand what we degens go through trying to figure out their RB situation. Screw them! The Rams decided to finally start Jared Goff, the Packers picked up their future franchise RB in Christine Michael, and the Bears lost Alshon Jeffery for the next 4 games. There's going to be even more value plays to choose from this week, and as always, I will use both my infinite wisdom and the DailyRoto projections to make smart, informed picks. Well, I use a dartboard too, but that's beside the point. Save us Le'Veon!
WEEK 11 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – With TNF having two of the best QB plays of the week, our options are a little limited this week if paying up at QB. There's Big Ben vs Cleveland, ranked 30th worst against opposing QBs, but Ben just hasn't looked the same since returning from injury. Steele's could also simply rely on Le'Veon and win via rush attack. Mariota has been lighting it up lately, and he'll get a still paltry Colts pass defense that's giving up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, but I'm liking the other QB in that matchup. Andrew Luck may be facing the tougher defense in comparison, but with the return of both Dwayne Allen and Donte Moncrief, Luck's been playing like an All Pro QB. The Titans pass defense has been crumbling over the last couple weeks, giving up 371 passing/3 total TDs to Aaron Rodgers last week. It's brought down their pass defense DVOA ranking all the way to 26th worst. Luck at home has seen an uptick in pace, no huddle percentage, and offensive snaps as compared to their road games. The Colts clearly feel much more comfortable at home, and it's shown with Luck's stats at home, with two of his three 300+ passing yards games in the dome. With an implied team total of 27.5 points, I feel comfortable rostering Luck as my expensive QB over Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. Let's stay lucky!
Value Play – Bear with me here. Just....take a deep breath and relax. Are you relaxed yet? Because the QB value play is definitely a doozy. It's....Blake Bortles! PLEASE DON'T HURT ME! He's facing a veritable disaster of a pass defense in the Detroit Lions, and still will be near the league worst even with Darius Slay slated to come back this week. Bortles may be....well, Bortles-like, but he's still a stat-padding machine and somehow seems to stay relevant in DFS. He threw for 265 yards and 2 TDs/1 pick against the Texans on 49 pass attempts. In fact, over the last 4 games, Bortles has attempted an astonishing 187 passes! That's an average of well over 40+ pass attempts per game! Obviously, they're all not going to be perfect, accurate passes on the merits of dissecting the opposing defenses and hitting the right read or the open guy, but the volume's clearly there. The Jaguars are still pretty pass happy despite the new OC change, and that trend will continue against a Lions pass defense that's ranked dead last DVOA despite having a bye week. They're giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and that's a big reason why Bortles is projected as a great value on the DR Big Board. Put your big boy pants on and roster Borty, taking a shot every time his pass hits incomplete near his intended WR's feet.
BOLD CALL – It's strange to put Russell Wilson here as a BOLD CALL but Bortles as a value play. That's just the NFL for you, as Bortles gets a dream matchup + has the volume to succeed, while Wilson faces a tough challenge against the Eagles' ferocious pass rush but burnable secondary. Wilson and the Seahawks have adopted a much more pass happy script over the past month, even opting to use their rookie RB C.J. Prosise over former Seahawks and ex-starter Christine Michael, as Prosise is more of a receiving back that gives Wilson another target in the pass game. Wilson torched the Pats on SNF, lighting them up for 348 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He's clearly back from the ankle injury he suffered versus the Dolphins, and due to his terrible OL (ranked dead last in run blocking), Wilson has ramped up his pass attempts. It's been a winning gameplan, as evidenced by their win over the AFC stalwart Patriots. The Eagles may be giving up the 3rd fewest offensive plays in the NFL, but that's mostly due to their grinding run offense with their 3 headed monster at RB. Seattle's defense is very stingy against the run (ranked 2nd best DVOA), so it's likely the Eagles will have to pass it much more against Seattle. The Seahawks D may be imposing, but it's still surprisingly giving up 70+ plays over the past month and currently rank at 5th most snaps given up, leading to a sneakily good fantasy matchup for Wilson (provided his OL holds up in pass protection). The Eagles are only giving up the 6th fewest points to QBs, but with their boundary cornerbacks starting to slip in the grades, it's a low owned percentage play with some good upside behind it. Even Ciara can't mess with Wilson.
Top Play – The DR team absolutely loves Le'Veon Bell this week, projecting him at their highest projected points so far this season, with an absurd 30.68 points![sociallocker]He's facing a Browns defense that's almost dead last in both run and pass defense, getting absolutely manhandled by opposing RBs with the 2nd most fantasy points given up. The Browns D is also surrendering the 4th most offensive snaps per game, while also coming in at the same ranking for the 4th fastest pace. That combination means a smorgasbord of opportunities for Le'Veon Bell, both through the ground and the air. Bell inhaled 10 targets against the Cowboys, spitting out a 9/77/1 receiving line! That alone made paid off his price, but adding 57 rushing yards and a TD was what made Bell a DFS god. He'll likely out-shine those numbers against the Browns, and while his DK price is really, really scary, his floor and upside is equally tantalizing as well. More cowbell!
Value Play – It's about that time I bring up that Isaiah Crowell guy again. The last time he graced the picks article, he had a very solid day with a rushing TD to boot. Now he'll face the Steelers D that's giving up the 3rd most points to running backs. There's also Hue Jackson's coachspeak, claiming that he wants to go back to running more and making Crowell the focal point of the offense. 'Memba when Crowell was a hunk early in the season, getting almost 400 yards rushing through 4 games? Oooooo, I 'memba. I do remember that guy. Another boost to Crowell's value at his depreciated price tag is his continued involvement in the passing game, getting 15 targets for 12 catches and 143 receiving. Sure, it might seem I've flipped the value plays with BOLD CALLS, but it's just one of those weeks where the value plays just make sense despite the negativity behind said players. It's also my continued belief in the DR team, as Crowell comes in as the 7th best value at RB on the Big Board. Of course, you could just pick Blount and watch him lay waste to a historically bad 49ers run defense. That works, too.
BOLD CALL – Spencer Ware will be the BOLD CALL this week, mostly due to his concussion issues. He left the game last week against the Panthers for a short time, getting cleared for his apparent head injury and playing on. He was just OK for the game, piling up 72 total yards on offense. The key here is he survived against a hard hitting Panthers front 7 and managed to still get some tough but positive yards. Ware will be facing the 16th ranked Bucs run defense DVOA that's giving up the 7th most points to opposing running backs, mostly due to getting shredded by receiving backs. That's certainly one of Ware's strengths, being able to turn in great receiving lines behind the weak-armed Alex Smith's constant check-downs. The Bucs D is still giving up plenty of snaps to opposing offenses with little to no improvement over the past month, and the Chiefs' offense is still one thing and one thing only – grind, grind, GRIND! With a seemingly healthy (for now) Ware and Alex Smith, it's not a bad matchup to try and fit in Ware for low ownership purposes, especially if Maclin is unable to play once again. That would free up more targets for Ware, or they all could go to Styreek Hill again. Either way, the human bowling ball should have a very solid fantasy day.
Top Play – Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown obviously come to mind as the top plays this week, with delicious matchups as they both face the worst and 2nd worst pass defenses against wide receivers, respectively. Beckham is turning in an All Pro season, sizzling in the past 4 games with some explosive games, including a 200+ 2 TD game against the Ravens. Antonio is Antonio, so it's hard for me to ignore both of them in favor of A.J. Green for the top play of the week. He'll be facing a Bills defense that's just completely lost its identity, benching both Ronald Darby and Nickell Robey-Coleman. Stephen Gilmore hasn't been great either, with a miserable 50.3 grade coming into Week 11. The Bills defense may not be giving up a ton of points to opposing WRs (13th fewest), but the sudden benchings and a 23rd DVOA pass defense has my DFS alarm going off. It's why I'm going to pound AJ Green into my lineups, taking advantage of a slumping and spiraling Bills defense that's starting to become dysfunctional behind an unwilling to change Rex Ryan, who continues to be stubborn and forces his defense into bad predicaments. Green's been probably the 2nd best receiver in the NFL (Beckham maybe as well), and he's still churning up Pro Bowl numbers, with a 7/68/1 on 11 targets performance against the Giants on MNF. That's against two of the top corners in the NFL in Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The Bills are absolutely dreadful at defending the deep ball, and that's been AJ Green's specialty thus far this season. Green usually has that monster day every other week or so, either giving a respectable 6/60-70 line with maybe a TD or absolutely going nuts – as evidenced by his games of 12/180/1, 10/173/1, and 8/169/1. It's a spot I absolutely love Green in, and he'll likely be overlooked in favor of the aforementioned WRs as well as Mike Evans if he hasn't pissed off everyone else with his game last week. I'm so Green with envy.
Value Play – With the injury to Desean Jackson's rotator cuff, Pierre Garcon's had to pick up the slack, and he indeed did pick it up with a solid 6/81 line on 10 targets. He led the team in targets, and even with Jackson returning to practice, Garcon still likely will draw the most targets again versus a Packers secondary that just continues to get carved week in and week out. The Packers defense made Marcus Mariota look like a Hall of Famer, even going 10/10 for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns at one point. Deplorable! Kirk Cousins is also a great value QB play, but we're mostly looking at the receivers as they have the most to gain against a defense that's giving up the 5th most fantasy points to the position. Many of you will likely flock to Cameron Meredith after the Jeffery's suspension news, but I will stay away from that bear trap, as he'll likely draw Janoris Jenkins in coverage. Jenkins' been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, with the least burn percentage and having one of the best grades thus far. Of course, there's also Jay Cutler to mess with all of the Bears' receivers, so thanks but no thanks. Not counting the TNF receivers, Garcon comes in as the 6th best value on the handy-dandy DR Big Board. Check please, Garcon!
BOLD CALL – Stefon Diggs has been nothing short of amazing and incredible over the last 3 weeks, with a ridiculous PPR stat line of 34/320/1 on 42 targets! He'll be facing his hardest test to date, with the 3rd ranked DVOA Arizona pass defense and drawing the shadow coverage of Patrick Peterson. Here's why I don't care about that matchup – Peterson typically struggles with smaller, quicker receivers who normally reside at the slot position. That about describes Diggs' skill-set, as he's very quick and fleet-footed, with 58% of his routes run at slot receiver. Peterson has only spent 11% of his coverage in the slot, so it's unlikely they decide to stick Peterson at nickel for the majority of the game. That opens up opportunities for Diggs to get in another tasty PPR performance as the Vikings, behind Pat Shurmur as the real OC, have clearly realized Diggs is a monster and deserves all the targets in the world. Bradford agrees, and will oblige to the Spam Diggs gameplan as to avoid getting his skull caved in by Chandler Jones and the Cards' impressive pass rushers. Could we see a 14 catch for 60 yards performance? Certainly! And is that such a bad thing? I mean, that's 20 points right there on DraftKings! I'm banking on the Vikings having to really utilize the quick passing game and stay heavy on the no huddle offense that has helped lessen the pressures given up by the 31st worst pass blocking offensive line. It's been one of their main keys at keeping Bradford alive and well, with Diggs essentially replacing their abysmal running game with quick hitters and the occasional reverse.
Top Play – With Gronk likely to miss his Week 11 game, all of the season long owners of Gronk have likely jumped off a cliff to their untimely deaths, as Gronk was going to break every single game TE record against the 49ers. Probably. Tyler Eifert would have made a nice play as the top play had the Bills not benched Robey-Coleman, who was the main culprit during the Graham/Gronk spam sandwich. Jordan Reed will be facing the Packers defense that's giving up the 7th most points to opposing TEs, but Reed is a little too risky to be the true top play despite the best matchup on paper. I'll go ahead and slide Delanie Walker into the top spot instead, as he's been coming up big over the last couple weeks, beasting against the Packers for 9/124/1 on 11 targets. The Colts vs Titans likely will be high scoring, and the Titans offense has been fairly even thus far with their trio of Mariota, DeMarco Murray, and Delanie Walker. Usually when one of those guys does well, the others benefit greatly. The Colts defense isn't very good against anything, so someone's gonna do swell. I'm banking on Walker getting the most targets once again, and putting on a clinic against the Colts' extremely slow linebackers as Walker tries to outdo Murray's day. The Colts are also 31st DVOA at defending the TE position, while giving up the 6th most points. It's gonna be a fun battle, yall!
Value Play – The Black Unicorn? Martysaurus? That guy who was on the Cowboys but was hardly ever used and got mad at the organization, then went to the Bears and blew up? Tom Brady's favorite new toy? Whatever you wanna call Martellus Bennett, the point here is he's clearly the best value at the TE position after Gronk's apparently chest/lung/rib/neck/??? injury seems likely to keep him out against the 49ers. Brady loves him some tight ends, and yes, he loves those deflated balls as well. So does Eric Reid. Bennett already has three 100+ yard games this season, and several were actually with Gronk active. The 49ers secondary is extremely banged up and their pass rushers likely will be out, as Aaron Lynch is still nursing an ankle injury. Basically everyone on the 49ers front are all either hurt, banged up and playing through the injury, or just aren't very good. Most of them aren't good actually, which would explain why they might end up being the worst rush defense of all time. Either way, Brady's going to find the Black Unicorn over and over, and you'd be a fool not to want a share of that action. With an implied team total of 32 (!) points, someone's gotta score, and it can't be all Blount. Can it? The 49ers' defense is still 1st in plays given up and somehow got even worse over the past month. All 'bout that action, boss!
BOLD CALL – The Ravens really hate scoring touchdowns, don't they? Justin Tucker has to be ecstatic to be a part of a football team that allows him to do his dances and hit 50 field goals a game. Dennis Pitta is the pick this week, and the reason why he's a BOLD CALL is because he hasn't cracked over 50 yards receiving since Week 5! He's been hauling in plenty of catches and usually is 2nd or 3rd in team targets, but the average depth of said targets are close to about the size of an army ant. For example, last week against the Browns, whose defense had just given up an 8/134/1 day to Jason Witten, Pitta was only able to secure 6 catches for a whopping 26 yards! That's....tiny. Pitta gets the 30th ranked DVOA tight end defense of the Cowboys, giving up the 11th most points to the position. That's all I got for Pitta Bread, as the targets are there, the matchup looks good on paper, and the Cowboys could end up not being able to run as effectively, giving the Ravens more plays than usual. It's all up to Joe Flacco's arm and his insistence on not letting Pitta get further than 1 yard down the field before corking a fastball his way. Maybe Jason Witten will give Pitta some encouraging words as a fellow slow tight end. One can only hope.
WEEK 11 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
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