Daily Fantasy Football Week 15 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS
Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 15 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? The Saints depressed me so much that the game caused my laptop to crawl into an empty hole and douse itself in water Rip Sir Theodore Computre. It's French. I'll still be right here writing my silly predictions based on redundant statistics and throwing darts on the vaunted DailyRoto Big Board of Things On Fire And Spinny Thingamobs. It was a good 'un last week for that big board. As the values and optimals absolutely smashed. Hopefully my sexy Galaxy S7 phone can get the job done this week. As a result of the untimely death of Sir Theodore, this will be a different type of a rambling piece. Do not despair though; I shall do my best as the George Carlin of DailyRoto. It's in my blood after all. Let us begin!
WEEK 15 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top play - On a week where QBs such as Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers are all playing for important playoff spots, it's a bit strange to be looking at Kirk Cousins instead. The Redskins are also still battling for a playoff spot, led by a surprisingly powerful offense that Cousins has elevated over their last 5 games. All of Cousins receivers have been or close to top 10 in scoring this year, and now Cousins gets the 16th ranked DVOA Panthers pass defense that's still giving up the 10th most points to opposing QBs. With how consistent Captain Kirk has been and the lack of a secondary for the Panthers, the game feels like a shootout that Kirk can win in. With a full complement of weapons and surging confidence, I can't overlook Cousins as a great play despite the other elite QBs that are playing this week. Hail To The No Color Skins!
Value play – Listen, QB play has been significantly down over the past few weeks, where a mediocre score of 15 points from a QB wasn't actually bad in comparison. With that in mind, I'm going with some basic, rather elementary facts. The Raiders defense gives up big plays consistently. Rivers is still a top QB even if he fumbles 10x a game. The Chargers will be without their stud RB Melvin Gordon, putting the onus of the team's offense squarely on Rivers' arm. Oakland's defense is ranked near the bottom in every important fantasy category, and Rivers still has Tyrell Williams. It's a simple but effective bet on statistical facts and using history on Rivers' side for the value play. Just pray that the Chargers block Khalil Mack.
BOLD CALL – Drew Brees really hates us, huh? The dude had two great matchups for a huge fantasy day, then went ahead and posted back-to-back games without a touchdown pass. Thanks a lot you bum. Now he gets a rough matchup against the a top 5 Arizona defense that ranks 4th DVOA against the pass and giving up the 4th fewest points to QBs as well. However, watching Tanny the Fanny drive on the Cardinals and picking them apart with precision made me realize the defense badly needs the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu. Without him, the Cardinals got chewed up by quick passes and open routes by the slot receivers. They got gashed due to missed tackles that Mathieu normally would be in position to make. No one will be on Breesus Christ after his appalling performances, which must mean he's gonna throw for 500 yards, right? Or you could just lose with him for the third time in a row. I'm a masochist.
Top play – Every week's top RB play is always likely to come down between Le'Veon the God, DJ the Savior, or Zeke the Eater. Bell vs Cincy, DJ vs the Saints, and Zeke vs the Bucs on primetime? Hmm, some seriously tough choices...[sociallocker] Let's go ahead and let the DR Big Board decide my fate. It has decreed that the God shall be this week's top play, and if you were a premium sub last week, then you know whatever the Big Board decrees it is the absolute truth. Bell will be looking to improve on his fellow teammate at RB, Deangelo Williams, who started in place of Bell against the Bengals during Bell's suspension. The result of that game? 132 total yards and a touchdown on 36 touches for Williams. Sounds like a Bell line to me. What more can we say about Bell that everyone hasn't said? Trust the projections!
Value play – It appears to me that many will target Farrow due to Gordon's injury, chase the “49ers run defense is so bad” narrative with Tevin Coleman, or listen to the projections and go with Bilal Powell (assuming he starts). Can you figure out which way I'm leaning towards to? Yes! Powell received a backbreaking workload of 34 touches after Forte's injury. While Miami played spirited defense against DJ the Savior, it was an ugly game with wet balls everywhere. It rained, you pervs. The Dolphins' rush defense is still ranked low at 22nd DVOA. They should have Alonso back but the LB core is still lacking any real run stuffers, and the Jets already spam Powell on dump offs no matter who their QB is. Powell is essentially guarantees for a big workload against a below average run defense and the Jets have no reason not to go all out since their season's over. Miami wins by 50 but Powell gets 30 fantasy points. Everybody wins! Except the Jets.
BOLD CALL – Facing the best pass defense in the NFL, the Patriots may opt against using their typical game plan and instead take advantage of Denver's woeful 25th DVOA run defense. That's where LeGarrette Blount comes in, riding a 1k rushing season with a league leading 14 rushing touchdowns. Denver's giving up the 11th most points to the position, and the Pats are still committed to giving all the carries Blount can handle, as Blount galloped for 72 yards and a TD on 18 carries against an elite Ravens run defense. There's always the worry of the Pats phasing Blount out during the game at any moment's notice in favor of both Dion Lewis and James White. I don't think that will be the case against the Broncos, as the best way to neutralize their elite pass rushers and dominant secondary is to pound the rock until the defense submits to the Pats' will. May Blount bless us with a spectacular hurdle or two.
Top play – Much like Brees, Evans let all of us down when he couldn't get past an average Saints secondary last week. I still have faith in Moss Evans, and perhaps a primetime game against a non-divisional opponent was just what the doctor ordered. He'll get the 24th rated DVOA Cowboys pass defense that's giving up the 16th most points to the position. The key here is how the Bucs move around Evans, letting him take advantage of the lesser CB Anthony Brown instead of Brandon Carr, who's having a great season thus far with an excellent PFF coverage grade. Evans is still one of the heaviest targeted players in the NFL and I have a feeling Famous Jameis wants to get back on track with his star WR as they push for a playoff spot. It's Mossing Time!
Value play – Not many would consider Rishard Matthews as a key cog to their lineup construction, but make no mistake about it – Matthews could have a big day against a weak KC secondary. Sure, he only tallied one catch last week, but that was against the best pass defense and against two of the top-5 graded cornerbacks. Before that game, Matthews' previous 4 games had a purty statline of 21/352/4! The Chiefs are giving up the 5th most points to opposing receivers despite a lofty 8th pass defense ranking. Teams have picked on the opposing CB on the other side of Marcus Peters, and as luck would have it, that's where the majority of Matthews' routes are run. Matthews is a force in the redzone, which would explain his high TD output, and in a crucial spot for a playoff spot, you can bet the bank that Mariota is going to rely heavily on his TD machine. Rishard for MVP!
BOLD CALL –More of a homer call than a BOLD CALL, I'm going to place DeVante Parker here despite Tannehill's injury. Matt Moore is an aggressive QB who loves the deep ball and attacking 1-on-1 matchups. Tanny chose his moments to be aggressive, and it could pay off big for Parker in some games. The big play was inconsistent though, but once a gunslinger, always a gunslinger. Moore is going to love taking deep shots against a dead last ranked Jets pass defense that just seems they'd rather be at home watching TV than be on the field. Parker has some elite attributes that made him a first round pick, but the most important one is his ability to high point the ball and attack. Deep dart throw, but it's a great unsuspecting spot for a bonkers Parker day. Grab a share!
Top play – All right, at this point I'm tired and my thumbs hurt, so let's make these picks short and sweet. I mean, who cares about tight ends? We punt the position all the time! Let's put the hottest TE in the NFL as the top play for the week. That would be Zeus himself, Travis Kelce. He's strung together four straight games of 100 yards or more receiving yards. That is something you can't ignore, no matter the matchup. Smith loves the guy and so do I. Feed baby Gronk!
Value play – Ladarius Green was very quiet last week against the Bills, but so was the rest of the Steelers offense outside of the God. He's still sitting pretty at his price and gets a Cincy D that's 20th DVOA against tight ends while giving up the 4th most fantasy points to the position. It's totally possible that Bell dominates the touches yet once again and the Steelers simply ride his coattails into another win, but I doubt that happens in week 15. If it does, then all is lost, as no one will have an answer for stopping Bell the Fantasy God. All praise.
BOLD CALL – Zach Ertz has now seen 28 targets for 10/113 and 9/79/1 in the last two games. It's abundantly clear that Wentz has now taken a shine to Ertz, and that's why Ertz is the call this week. He'll be climbing an uphill battle against a stingy Baltimore defense that's third DVOA against TEs. Remember when Eifert was up against the same circumstances? Similar body type and athleticism to Eifert, Ertz could easily match Eifert's statline of 5/68/1 and maybe even more. All eyes on Ertz!
WEEK 15 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
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