Daily Fantasy Football Week 16 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS
Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 16 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? I HAVE RETURNED! Sir Theodore Computre II has graced his presence in my household, and as a result I will be able to fully ramble on for Week 16. Just in time for Christmas, too! Last week saw some terrible top plays (I blame my phone) but got the rare quadruple value play hit. Acceptable. With X-Mas looming around the corner, I will focus on the Saturday games instead of the full NFL slate. That means no Le'Veon the God, Zeke the Eater, and especially no Trevor “I Seriously Hate My Parents, like HATE THEM” Siemian. You know what that means? We actually have to try and make real lineups this week, relying on the DailyRoto Big Board to guide us to victory. Do not despair and succumb under the pressure of actually looking at players' match-ups, as the friendly people of DailyRoto have your back! Well, myself not included. You didn't choose to read this for SnarkMeyer's snarky but sharky NFL advice, rather opting for a simple, but outrageously funny and somehow euphoric, read for each NFL week. You're welcome.
WEEK 16 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – The Big Board likes Drew Brees for the week, but I'm still gun-shy after what he did to my lineups prior the Cardinals game. I will instead choose good ol' Thomas Edward Patrick Brady against the hapless Jets, whose defense seems content to take the rest of the season off and just do nothing. They got absolutely carved up by Matt Moore, who hadn't played in 5 years. Five! The Jets pass defense still ranks dead last DVOA, with a 3rd rated run defense that I'm not entirely sold on as being a good run unit. The Patriots run the 8th most plays in the NFL, and according to PFF that number has risen to 2nd most over the past month with the 10th fastest pace as well. You guys do remember what Brady did to this Jets defense, right? You don't? Here are the numbers – 286 passing yards with 2 TDs and no picks on 50 pass attempts. Not bad, not amazing. Now Brady will get an even more depressed defense that's losing steam due to the ineffectiveness of their new QB in Bryce Petty, as they end up trailing early and often with no rest in sight. It's a nice cherry on top for Brady's Revenge Tour as he gets to beat up yet another AFC East bummy team for glorious stats. Just don't yell at my players, Thomas!
Value Play – I don't really like any of the lower priced QBs this week, as most of them are either QBs I don't trust (Matt Moore, Tyrod Taylor, and Blake Bortles) or gives me indigestion (Tom Savage, Matt Barkley, and Jared Goff). So why don't we just go ahead and pick some guys you wouldn't normally think about that aren't in the top end price range? Carr and his poor pinky gets the mediocre Colts pass defense that's giving up the 8th most points to the position while hoisting a lofty 27th DVOA pass defense rank. And then there's the forgotten man in Tennessee, Marcus Mariota. His price has dropped over the weeks, and part of that is due to his declining play. That doesn't mean you should ignore him against the Jags, even if their pass defense has been surprisingly solid with a 16th rank and giving up the 7th fewest points to opposing QBs. Bortles just threw for 92 passing yards last week, allowing Tom Freakin' Savage ample amount of plays to get his team back in the game. His final stat-line? 260 yards on 63% completion. No, he didn't throw for any touchdowns, but who cares? Tom Savage! You can go ahead and play those QBs I mentioned earlier, but I'll stick to the relevant guys who actually know what they're doing. Done and done!
BOLD CALL – Speaking of Bortles....nah. I learned my lesson on Borty-pants and he will never grace this article ever again. Ever! Now I did say Matt Barkley was one of the QBs who give me indigestion upon reading his name, but he does have a good match-up. The Redskins' pass defense has been abysmal as of late, giving up the 6th most points to opposing QBs and seeing their DVOA rank plummet to 24th worst. Barkley is coming off possibly his best game as a quarterback, throwing for 362 yards and 2 TDs/3 picks. The three interceptions aren't good, but it does prove Barkley can thrive against bad pass defenses. He's got Alshon Jeffery back and a red hot running back in Jordan Howard, so it's conceivable that Barkley does actually pay off at his basement price. I mean, you could do worse at QB within the same price range. You could roll the dice on Goff against the 49ers, or dive into the rabbit hole that is Bortles against the Titans. Good luck, you'll need it.
Top Play – Whoa, I actually have to give a real top play for once? No Bell, no Zeke, David Johnson against a difficult Seattle defense? Hmm. Guess I'll have to pick against my Dolphins yet once again...[sociallocker] Bilal Powell got 150+ total yards with relative ease against the Dolphins last Saturday, despite the Jets convulsing on both sides of the field and imploding into a multiple TD deficit. The Dolphins still pretty much stink at stopping the run, and their DC has even on record saying that's OK, as he prefers to limit big passing plays and focus on keeping things in front of his defense. Translation – I know their run defense sucks, leave me alone! LeSean McCoy has been one of the hottest RBs in the past month and I don't see that stopping anytime soon. He's the sole reason why the Bills are still technically alive in the playoff hunt, and McCoy was actually the recipient of multiple Taylor dump-offs prior the Browns game, snorting up back-to-back games of 7 targets for a combined 13/142 receiving stat-line! Miami still has no real coverage linebackers outside of Kiko Alonso, so a Powell-esque game may be in line for McCoy. As a Fins fan, I hope the Dolphins annihilate the Bills and blow them into smithereens, but still allow 200+ total yards to McCoy in a 40 point win. Greeeeeeeeeeedy!
Value Play – Why does the old man get no respect? Frank the Tank keeps on rumbling for another 1k rushing season and climbing the all time rushing leaderboard. Yet, Gore continues to be severely underpriced for the season, having now made the Value Play portion three times already. The guy just simply gets it done behind a mediocre offensive line and a surging Andrew Luck. The guy just stomped on the Vikings for 101 rushing yards! What more do you want?!? He'll be facing a Raiders run defense that's given up huge running lanes all season long, resulting in a 21st ranked run defense that's giving up the 8th most points to the position. While Gore hasn't scored a rushing touchdown in the last 5 weeks (has a receiving TD in the same time), the Oakland game presents a good opportunity for the Colts to use a more aggressive clock control approach in an effort to minimize their defensive snaps and keeping the high-powered Raiders offense off the field. That means more reliance on Gore's legs of steel that won't unravel despite Father Time's numerous attempts on his NFL life. Mr. Reliable strikes again!
BOLD CALL – I'm going with Carlos Hyde for the 1st time this season, as I believe the 49ers will actually try somewhat against the Rams. Their no-huddle percentage and overall pace has slowed down some over the past few weeks, presumably in an effort to chew up clock and prevent allowing 70-80+ plays to their opponents against an unfathomably bad run defense. Of course, that game plan hasn't worked out. The Rams aren't exactly what you would call offensive juggernauts so I doubt the 49ers fall into the same game plan they used against the Falcons and the Patriots. That means Hyde could be in line for a big workday despite going up against the 7th best DVOA Rams run defense. That strong run defense is still giving up the 15th most points to opposing running backs, and Hyde has still performed extremely well over the past month, regardless of what happens to the 49ers as a whole. He ran for 71 yards last week with a very nice 5.5 yards per carry average and ran for 193 yards just before that game in addition to a receiving touchdown! Against Chicago where the 49ers quite literally could not pass the ball (Kaepernick was 1/5 passing for 4 total yards!) and still toted the ball 20 times for 92 rushing yards. Point here is the 49ers still give Hyde as much as he can handle and should employ the usual league leading fastest pace while teetering between 1st and 2nd highest no-huddle percentage. Let's hope we get Mr. Hyde and not Dr. Jekyll.
Top Play – Do we go with the narrative street of “Julio Jones dropped 300 on the Panthers their last game! ROSTER HIM!!!” or do we look elsewhere? I am going to look elsewhere, as the CB Julio Jones absolutely murdered in that game is now a free agent (Bene Benwikere). I'm going to make a big, gutsy call as the top WR for the week, as many may be off him due to his bad performance last week. Tyrell Williams is my top play, facing a Browns defense that's been one of the easiest to run an offense on. QBs are absolutely having a ball against the Browns, picking apart their slow and average secondary for free yards and easy scores. The Browns are 31st DVOA against the pass and 32nd in run defense, meaning basically whatever a team decides to do on offense, it'll probably work. Tyrell has been one of Rivers' favorite targets over the season, and despite a horrific game full of drops against the Raiders, Tyrell still saw 9 targets in that game. Tyrell basically plays everywhere on the field, so his match-ups will all eventually lead to a favorable one against most of the Browns' bad cornerbacks, especially since their best CB in Jamar Taylor will probably be out. Give me all the Tramon Williams (47.4 coverage grade) and Joe Haden (52.6) against Tyrell!
Value Play – With the Texans naming Tom Savage as their starting QB going forward, DeAndre Hopkins suddenly looks like a legitimate top 10 WR play for the next two weeks. Why is that, you said? After the Brockness Monster was benched last week, Savage squirted out 14 targets (!) to Hopkins for the rest of the game, resulting in a 8/87 stat line that resulted in his 2nd highest receiving total all season! Sad! Although Hopkins will face a stingy Cincinnati pass defense that's giving up the 5th fewest points to wide receivers and Hopkins will be facing Adam Jones (78.9 grade) on the majority of his snaps, seeing those huge target numbers behind a QB that can actually chuck it past 10 yards puts Hopkins' floor and ceiling at a much higher number, no matter who he faces. With an even more hobbled Lamar Miller, the Texans may opt for a heavier passing game plan than usual. If we all go ahead and remember last year when Hopkins was simply unstoppable against anybody due to the exorbitant amount of targets Hopkins slurped up, you'll understand why he's one of the best values on the Big Board. Give me a 20 target game, Savage!
BOLD CALL – All units be on the look-out for Allen Robinson, who's been missing from the Jaguars' passing offense over the past month. Bueller? Bueller? Buallen? A-Rob's price has dropped into the “Are these guys serious? He's that low priced? Gosh, I still don't wanna use him though” territory, and I'm here to tell y'all that it's time. Yes, it's time to roster Allen Robinson. He'll be playing against Antwon Blake at times during the game, which could be the best match-up he's been waiting for all season. Sure, Blake's been graded out as an average corner, but he was by far one of the worst cornerbacks last year. Easily! Despite Marquis Lee's success as the new number 1 WR for Bortles to throw at their feet, Robinson still saw 8 targets last week. Yes, he converted those into 15 coma-inducing yards. Targets are still targets, damn it! Look at his price! Antwon Blake! Bortles! I DON'T KNOW WHAT I'M YELLING ABOUT!!!! I expect a tidy 2/12/1 stat-line, and so should you.
WEEK 16 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – Over his last 4 games, Kyle Rudolph has seen 10, 12, 8, and 10 targets. He's turned all those targets into an impressive 27/266/1 receiving line! He'll be the top play for the week as he faces a Packers defense that's quite lax against opposing tight ends, giving up the 12th most points despite a 7th DVOA ranking in TE coverage. The points given up is mostly due to their pass defense being unable to stop opposing offenses from driving into the redzone, as the tight ends clean up with touchdowns on those said drives. Rudolph has 19 redzone targets (6th most in NFL) and has converted those into 6 touchdowns. The Vikings have clearly relied on Rudolph over the past month and he's answered their call each time. Consistency is what we look for at TE, and Rudolph has Bradford's trust within an offensive game plan that's willing to involve Rudolph all over the field at any time. Time to raid and pillage the Packers, Rudy!
Value Play – I'm going into the Make Cameron Brate Again well once more, as he gets another chance to become the Brate Gatsby that the Big Board envisioned him to be. The Saints are bad against tight ends in both coverage and points given up, and it's quite literally the same script Brate had a few weeks ago, other than he'll be on the road this time around. Brate was still all right in that game with a 4/47 line, but the stat-line Brate pulled in last week (5/73/1) is what we were hoping for. Brate's still one of the most targeted TEs in the redzone and after last week's performance, Brate now has 7 redzone touchdowns, good for a 2nd place tie with several others. Impressive! Here's to hoping Brate actually read The Great Gatsby and didn't watch the movie. Ugh.
BOLD CALL – After a three game stretch that saw Eifert grab 4 touchdowns, a 1/9/0 clunker was quite disappointing for the surging Eifert. Now he's dealing with a potential back issue and at the time of this writing he may or may not play. I am banking on him playing regardless and he'll get a difficult match-up similar to the one he had against the Ravens. The Texans are currently the number 1 DVOA TE coverage defense, giving up the 4th fewest points to the position. A.J. Green is expected to come back as well, diminishing Eifert's target share. Still, it's not the first (or second) time that Eifert's had to battle a top 5 TE defense, and each time he's answered the call with big, fat stat-lines full of touchdown grabs. He always shows full effort no matter the match-up, and I respect that about his game. Eifert all the way!
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