Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS
Are you ready for my Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 #HOTSIZZLETAEKS? It seems that Mr. Brady is still steamed at the NFL and took out his anger on the Bengals to the tune of 376 passing yards and 3 TDs. He'll get the Steelers next game, who are reeling after a tough loss to the Dolphins. They also lost their marquee QB Ben Roethlisberger to a torn meniscus. Of course, it's Big Ben so unless he got his leg amputated, he's probably back within the next couple weeks instead of a month or two. In other news, the 49ers are really bad and the Eagles hate Ryan Mathews. The Colts are shockingly inept at managing games, much like the Chargers have been for most of the season, and Brees at home is as close to a guaranteed +EV play as anyone in the NFL. Too bad he's on the road this week, so we will have to pick Ryan Tannehill in his stead. Yes, that's a joke. Calm down. Here's to hoping I can nail the elusive quadruple hit on all the Top Plays below. I can feel it in my bones this week.
WEEK 7 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
Top Play – If the Steelers were with Big Ben, I'd probably roster Brady in this spot, but that game will likely be a laugher with the Pats running more than usual. Sure, Brady and the Pats love running up the score and being assholes in general, but I don't see a 400 yard day. We'll pivot to Matt Ryan, coming off an impressive outing against the always tough Seattle defense. He put up eye-popping numbers in the 2nd half, proving that he's not a one trick pony and that the Falcons can scheme with the best of them. Ryan gets the 9th ranked DVOA Chargers pass defense, but that number's a little skewed. The Chargers had a healthy Jason Verrett shadowing opposing teams' #1 receivers, but a torn ACL ended his season a few weeks ago. Then they had a TNF game against Siemian, who was....well, not good. San Diego is currently giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and their run defense is ranked 21st DVOA. That's great news for Ryan's run offense, opening up their bread and butter play actions and bootlegs. Ryan dissected the Seattle secondary for 335 yards and 3 TDs, with 252 yards in the 2nd half alone! Both teams are in the top 10 at giving up plays to opposing defenses, with the Chargers coming in at 5th most and Falcons at 8th most. Sounds like a shootout to me. Chargers also love abandoning their run offense when they're behind, so there's little concern that the game script for SD might resemble the one from the Broncos game, where the Chargers sucked the soul out of the Broncos defense/TNF viewers with long, grinding drives. Crank up those Ryan/Julio stacks baby!
Value Play – Looking at the prices and matchups for most of the mid/low tier QBs, Week 7 will be a strong week for that particular group. You have Alex Smith in an enticing matchup once again, but they'll probably be run heavy in an effort to keep Brees on the bench. Dalton gets the Browns, but he's Dalton and looks like one of the kids in those Children Of The Corn movies. Tyrod Taylor should hit value at his low price against the Dolphins, who just lost arguably their best defensive player in Reshad Jones to IR. His upside is limited due to the team's preference in being run heavy and playing smart ball, so not the best value play. Kirk Cousins gets the 32nd ranked pass defense Detroit Lions, who just gave up 321 passing and 3 touchdowns to Case Keenum. KEENUM!!!! That also included allowing Keenum to complete 20 straight passes! The narrative that Cousins struggles on the road compared to away doesn't seem to be the case this year, as his 2 road games have seen Cousins faring quite well, including passing for 296 yards and 2 TDs against the Giants. There is a worry that the Skins may decide to run more and keep utilizing clock management in their favor against the explosive Lions offense, ranking the 9th slowest paced team in the NFL. The Skins also only average the 23rd most plays. So despite the Lions' inability to stop opposing QBs (most FP given up), so there is some inherent risk in rostering Cousins. The value and the matchup is just too good to pass up, and if Keenum can complete 20 straight with guys like Kenny Britt and Lance Kendricks, I am fine with a mere 250/3 TD performance from Cousins. If Reed can return this week, all the better.
BOLD CALL – Blake Bortles' season has been really disappointing after a promising 35 TD sophomore season. He's been wildly inconsistent and pretty much gets the majority of his points at the end of games during the 4th quarter. So while Bortles has a nice matchup against Oakland (currently giving up the 28th most FP to opposing QBs with a 28th ranked DVOA pass defense), he can still muck around and end up with a lackluster day. Still, I believe Bortles will show up against the Raiders and show them who's the boss, behind the heroics of his WR duo, the Allen's. The Jags are one of the least efficient running teams with a putrid run blocking OL and they're heavily dependent on their pass attack to gain any traction. DR seems to like Bortles a little bit. I mean, Bortles is gonna pass all over the place when they're down by 50 at halftime. Easy points.
Top Play – Let's keep picking on the poor Indy defense, having just given up yet another top 5 RB performance to Lamar Miller, yielding 178 total yards and 2 TDs. DeMarco Murray is the next man up to get his best performance of the season against the Colts, except Murray's actually been really, really good...[sociallocker] Miller was at a crossroads before the Indy game, and the performance likely carries him throughout the season, while Murray comes into the game with the 4th most rushing yards in the NFL. He's also 7th in rushing TDs, while piling up 24 catches for 172 yards and 2 TDs receiving. Good lord. I could list all the superlatives about how bad Indy's run D is, or how much their LBs get roasted trying to cover running backs out of the backfield. There's really no point, as Murray is as easy of a play as there is for Week 7. Bell lost his star QB, DJ plays Seattle but still could go off, and McCoy's hammy tightened up. Play the man and hop on aboard the Murr Train. Destination – every NFL team's endzones.
Value Play – With the Doug Martin injury news surfacing and knocking him out for this week, all signs point to a Jacquizz Rodgers monster game against the 49ers' 28th ranked run defense. It's a fairly obvious play, and for good reason, as the 49ers have gotten absolutely crushed by opposing RBs. LeSean McCoy got his revenge on Chip Kelly, rushing for 140 yards and 3 TDs. David Johnson ran for 157 yards and 2 TDs as well. Rodgers had 35 total touches against the Panthers and seemed to still have some juice in his legs. The Bucs just put Vincent Jackson on IR, which opens up more targets all around for the Bucs' receivers and could lead to even more Famous Jameis dumpoffs to Quizz. The 49ers are still giving up the 3rd most snaps per game, while the Bucs average the 2nd most snaps a game. SF has the fastest pace still, while the Bucs are surprisingly the 5th fastest in the NFL. That is a gorgeous recipe for a Buccaneers offensive explosion, even if it is a little bit of an obvious play. It's guaranteed touches versus a very bad run defense with a great game script for a fast paced, high offensive output game. What more could you ask for?
BOLD CALL – Remember when Isaiah Crowell was a thing? Ooooh, yeah I remember. He's fallen off a cliff after his early season start, putting up less than 50 total yards in the last 2 weeks. Still, he gets the 18th DVOA ranked run defense in the Bengals, giving up the 8th most FP to opposing running backs. It's a nice matchup for the Browns and Hue Jackson to scheme a successful game plan for Crowell. He's getting more touches than Duke Johnson, which is a good sign that the Browns haven't given up on Crowell. Pryor is battling some hammy issues but should be able to play, and with the Bengals' pass defense being a major problem all season, it's not exactly a top tier defense that the Browns will be facing. If Crowell is unable to get going somewhat this week, then it's a good idea to just completely forget he exists and put him on the back burner for the rest of the season. If he does go off, you can reward me with 90% of your DFS winnings. I'm a fair man.
Top Play – Tough week to choose from the elite WR options such as AJ Green vs. the Browns, Julio vs. Chargers, Evans without VJax against the surprisingly solid pass defense of the 49ers, and Odell against the Rams while coming off a 8/222/2 receiving line. That is such a great line that I am inclined to ride on the Odell bandwagon this week against the Rams. Obviously, Odell has to be healthy and ready to go (he didn't practice due to some abdominal stuff, but is expected to play), and when he does suit up he'll be facing the 18th worst pass defense DVOA that's giving up the 6th most FP to opposing receivers. Trumaine Johnson once again won't suit up, and there is still a chance that Robert Quinn won't as well, which would be a big win for Eli and his struggling LT. The Giants have the highest no-huddle snap percentage as well as the 2nd fastest pace in the NFL. The Rams defense just allowed 4 touchdown passes to Matt Stafford and rejuvenated the Golden Potater, giving up a 8/165/1 line to that guy. That's after Tate was almost pronounced fantasy dead for the season with only 134 receiving yards through 5 weeks! Now, this is a London game so if you aren't playing with that game available, I'd look at both Julio Jones and AJ Green, with a bigger emphasis on rostering Green. They both have nice matchups and get moved around like a chess piece. Green probably has the easier matchup. The Browns' secondary as a whole isn't very good, nor have they been graded well outside of Haden. Julio can destroy Craig Mager, the Chargers' worst defensive player in the secondary, but Casey Hayward has been one of the elite CBs in the NFL and likely will try to cover Julio as much as possible. Choose wisely!
Value Play – This pick was tough just because there weren't any must plays this week, with the TNF game having the most value plays in Meredith and Ty Montgomery. I've been getting drawn to both Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson, but since I already wrote about Captain Kirk, I'll go with Wallace. He saw 11 targets for a cool 4/97 day, showing that he's going to be Flacco's favorite target most games. Steve Smith is likely out again, so that target number should either stay the same or increase further, much like it did against the Redskins, with Wallace seeing 11 targets - the majority of those after Steve Smith hobbled off the field. The Jets somewhat held their own against the Cardinals' pass attack, but that was probably because the Cards didn't have to pass it. DJ ran all over the Jets to the tune of 111 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Even after that “good” pass defense performance, the Jets are still giving up the 2nd most FP to the WR position, along with the dead last DVOA pass defense. DEAD LAST!!!!! Another stat that should help boost Wallace's value and workload is the fact that surprisingly enough, Baltimore currently runs the most snaps per game at 70.8 snaps! Who woulda thunk that a Joe Flacco-led team would run the most plays? I can just feel it in my belly that Wallace is going to go OFF! Revis Island be damned, as that bum has a grade of 42.5! This is Wallace Island, where speed never dies. What is fast may never be slow.
BOLD CALL – I was going to put Brandon Marshall here, then came the news that the Jets (or rather Todd Bowles) actually don't believe in Fitzmagic after all. Now he's stuck with an even worse QB who doesn't even look his way. Yikes. I will now bless Torrey Smith with the BOLD CALL pick. He had a decent day last week against the Bills, pulling in 3 catches on 7 targets for 76 yards and a TD. He was also overthrown on a gimme TD pass that would have gone for 50+ yards. Still good signs that he's getting the downfield targets, even if he had to slow down on his TD catch. Kap is obviously still a work in progress, but he offers much more in terms of options for Torrey compared to Gabbert. The Bucs are 27th against WRs fantasy points wise, and have been gashed by deep pass attacks all year due to both their inexperienced safeties and height disadvantages. The 49ers are going to get plenty of opportunities to get their offense going and Torrey Smith has always been a favorite of Kap's. DO NOT SLEEP ON HIM!!!!
Top Play – GRONK SMASH!!!! He had a monster day against the Bengals and now has back to back 100+ yards games. He's back all right and he's ready for some more! There are only really 3 elite plays at TE (as far as I can see) matchup wise, with Delanie Walker getting the Colts and Travis Kelce against the always-picked-on Saints defense. Nothing beats the Brady/Gronk connex though, and the Steelers' injuries continue to pile on, as they lost several key starters on their defense against the Dolphins. Shazier is likely out once again, so there goes their best coverage LB. The Steelers have continued to get gashed for big chunks of yards against TEs - a trend that continued when the Dolphins' literal 3rd string TE touched them for a 53 yard gain, finishing the day with a 3/81 line (probably should have had a TD). Gronk projects as the highest scoring TE by a large margin. There aren't even any questions or concerns health-wise as he's not listed on the injury reports. This is Gronk we're talking about here, with 16 total targets for a monstrous 12/271/1 stat line. Whew. The Pats are heavy favorites against a Ben-less Steelers, and again, Brady is still pissed at the NFL. Bring out the Gronk Party Bus, cuz it's bout to get down and dirty in Pittsburgh!
Value Play – O'DOYLE RULES!!!! With Dwayne Allen hampered by an ankle injury, Jack Doyle now steps in as the starting TE. He'll probably hold down the spot for the rest of the season as he's clearly been the better player of the two TEs, and has been a cog for the Colts and Luck's redzone offense. Indy has thrown 7 passes in the RZ to their tight ends, with Doyle converting his 3 targets into two touchdowns. He's been Mr. Reliable for Luck on check downs and has even shown some wiggle on his catch-and-runs. He'll be a bargain basement value with TE1 upside against the Titans who are the middle of the road at covering TEs. It's really all about the opportunity and workload for Doyle, and I think this is the jumping off point for his season, as he proves he's a legit TE for Luck to spam. O'DOYLE RULES!!!!!!
BOLD CALL – Old man power! The greatest power walker of all time is now a BOLD CALL this season. Antonio Gates has struggled mightily to stay relevant as he tries to run away from Father Time. Well, more like shuffle away. Gates may be slow and running 2 yard routes, but he still has 7 redzone targets. These critical looks will continue to climb throughout the season as Rivers attempts to get Gates the TE record for most touchdowns. The Falcons have been mediocre against tight ends and they've been scored on by a TE in almost every game this season. The only teams that didn't throw a TD to their tight end were the Seahawks (Jimmy Graham still posted a 6/89 line) and the Broncos, who don't even have a TE. The Falcons have given up the second-most TD catches to TEs, rank 29th in FP given up, and are the 22nd rated DVOA against tight ends. The biggest worry for Gates is his snap count, having only played in 31 offensive snaps last week. That would be only 47% of the Chargers' total offensive snaps. The emergence of Hunter Henry has been a big reason for that, but he's still behind Gates in routes run. Even Travis Benjamin ran more routes than Henry on 22 fewer snaps. Gates will show the true power of his power walking skills and get that elusive 1 yard touchdown for a MASSIVE MASSIVE 2/6/1 day! MASSSSSSSIVE!!!
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
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