Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Recap Week 9: Marvelous Melvin
Need to get away from some of the election coverage? Step into my office. I kept things rather brief this week, but still dove in to my favorite section (Quarterback, Schmaurterback) and took a look in a similar fashion at the usage of defenses. Enjoy!
WEEKLY PROJECTIONS | DST PROJECTIONS | K PROJECTIONS | TARGETS | CARRIES | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
$1.4M Wildcat, $333 Entry, $250,000 to First Place
Team: Drew Brees, Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, Golden Tate, Michael Thomas, Travis Kelce, Frank Gore, Chiefs
$4M Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1,000,000 to First Place
Team: Marcus Mariota, Jay Ajayi, Latavius Murray, Cole Beasley, T.Y. Hilton, Jordy Nelson, Jason Witten, Melvin Gordon, Panthers
$1.2M Play Action, $3 Entry, $50,000 to First Place
Team: Aaron Rodgers, Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Golden Tate, Antonio Gate, Latavius Murray, Rams
$650K Monster, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First
Team: Drew Brees, Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, Mike Wallace, Antonio Gates, Justin Tucker, Kansas City Chiefs
$1.25M Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $200,000 to First
Team: Aaron Rodgers, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon, Davante Adams, Sterling Shepard, Jordy Nelson, Jason Witten, Justin Tucker, Kansas City Chiefs
$1M NFL Sling TV Rush, $5 Entry, $100,000 to First
Team: Marcus Mariota, Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Rishard Matthews, Odell Beckham Jr, Jordy Nelson, Jason Witten, Josh Lambo, Kansas City Chiefs
The goal of this section? To derive the weight a quarterback carries relative to other positions in a GPP lineup.
Vague, Unscientific Hypothesis: Due to the range of outcomes for quarterbacks being smaller than that of other skill positions, the quarterback position will be less important than other positions in GPP lineups. Thus we should see a greater range of quarterback plays as compared to skill players among the top-20 lineups.
- Quarterbacks Used: 4 – Marcus Mariota, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott
- Change from week six: THREE more quarterbacks
- High Ownership: 24.2% - Aaron Rodgers
- Low Ownership: 3.2% - Marcus Mariota
- Quarterbacks Used: 3 - Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady
- Change from week six: ONE more quarterback
- High Ownership: Aaron Rodgers (9.5%)
- Low Ownership: Derek Carr (5%)
Woo! Another week of data that appears similar to my original hypothesis. It's probably not scientifically professional to be rooting for your hypothesis to be true, but at this point, I'm hardly scientific (or professional). I'm certainly surprised that players like Colin Kaepernick didn't show up on the top-20 lineups at a place like DK where the pricing disparity between him and other quarterbacks was so large. However the usage of quarterbacks speaks volumes to the ability to win with anyone at the position, hence "Quarterback, Schmaurterback."
Now that we've essentially reached the halfway point, I'm going to get editor extraordinaire to build me a fancy graph for next week showing the side by side of this season versus last on DraftKings and FanDuel. We shouldn't draw too many conclusions until then.
Checking in on the National Defense
Last night was a crazy night in American history, one that will soon not be forgotten. Regardless of your political affiliations things are bound to change even in slight degrees, as is true of every changing of the guard in the Oval Office. This piece doesn’t particularly care about presidential elections though, only GPPs.
I thought I’d take a look in at some of the defense usage in both the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings and the Sunday Million on FanDuel. I’ve broken it down similar to the Quarterback, Schmaurterback section, focusing on the top-20 lineups in each.
- Number of defenses used: Seven - Panthers, Saints, Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, Chargers, Ravens.
- High Score: 14 (Chargers)
- Low Score: 9 (Rams and Saints)
- Difference in high and low score: five points
- Number of defenses used: Seven - Chiefs, Vikings, Ravens, Eagles, Dolphins, Panthers, Giants.
- High Score: 13 (Ravens, Dolphins)
- Low Score: 3 (Vikings)
- Difference in high and low score: ten points
I don’t have much to say on this topic just yet, other than that my initial assumptions is that the top-20 lineups would share the highest scoring defenses as it’s typically a swing position due to varying degrees of ownership. Perhaps this week was just an outlier? Seven out of 20 lineups had different defensive selections and while the difference in score wasn’t drastic on DraftKings, on FanDuel the difference between the high and low score in the top-20 was ten points, more than a full touchdown.
I might begin to track this situation a bit more closely to see if this week was an anomaly and as I collect more data I’ll be able to provide a bit more actionable analysis from it. As of now, it looks like defense, deschmense.
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