DraftKings Week 2 WOAT: Weekly Ownership and Trends
This will be a weekly series discussing DraftKings Weekly Ownership and Trends (WOAT) in Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments that we can use to better ourselves as DFS players. If pricing were perfectly efficient, some DFS players could beat GPPs on ownership alone. Vince Lombardi once said ownership isn't everything, it's the only thing.
Ownership projections were hot fire last week. The correlation values from our guys at Unsourced Fantasy Collective ranged from 0.83 (Fanduel DST) to a high of 0.96 (Fanduel Tight End). Every single value on Fanduel eclipsed 0.90 correlation to actuals. That is fancy math language for saying ownership absolutely crushed it. But on to our thoughts for DraftKings Week 2 ownership.
Our highest owned QBs on the slate were Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson all just above 10% on DraftKings with Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr joining them. Special shout out to Ben Roethlisberger who was slightly higher owned on Fanduel as well. Still, the story of this position is that the ownership is spread, so QB won't be something we discuss quite as frequently in the WOAT. Our strong preference is to pay for the QB you want in your stacks for tournaments and choose other spots to differentiate your lineups.
Todd Gurley checked in as the highest owned running back at a price discount on DraftKings where he clipped 30% in many formats, while he was more moderately owned on Fanduel. The lone swing in a miss on ownership projections likely came from people using more RBs in FLEX during week 1 and is worth noting that RB ownership will get more spread out on Fanduel. Notable ownerships up top included Leveon Bell at 25%, David Johnson at 23% and LeSean McCoy at 19%. These ownerships were slightly lower than what we saw last year where they often clipped 40%. The decline was driven by their more expensive prices, and will be an interesting trend to monitor. RB ownership certainly wasn't efficient in Week 1, but has been a position we have seen historically more fruitful.
Julio Jones lead the expensive crew in ownership percentage at 20.5% owned against the Bears. We talked last year about wide receiver being a good place to pivot, as Antonio Brown checked in at just 14% owned and delivered the GPP winning performance of the week. People consistently value matchup at wide receiver, leaving AJ Green/Julio at half the ownership, and a couple vacated studs in Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson. Other popular mid-range players included Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Larry Fitzgerald… and we surely will never forget Kendall Wright chalk week! Wide receiver continues to see compressed ownership where the chalk is least likely to deliver GPP winning performances.
The biggest thing to note here is the delta between Zach Ertz's ownership on Fanduel (17.8%) and DraftKings (41% !!!). Ertz was priced as tight end #6 on Fanduel which kept his ownership in check despite a ton of buzz in the tout industries. Softer pricing and PPR scoring on DraftKings catapulted Ertz up the ownership levels. This is a good reminder to use ownership projections that are site specific and not just lean on someone being “chalk” because there are nuances to the sites. Pricing is THE critical factor to where ownership goes.
What should we be look at for this week?
Popular Games to Target
The first thing that stands out this week is that there are a few game stacks that will jump out on paper. The most popular games to target this week kick off in New Orleans and Atlanta. The Patriots at Saints game will garner early ownership while the prime time Packers at Falcons game will bring the late night hammer. No GPP lead is safe going into Sunday night, so don't fall trap to the early screenshots! I think you know who those will come from. Some other high total teams that should see some action are the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Steelers, and Seattle Seahawks. I expect all of these to be a clear cut behind the games outlined above though.
Because of these spots featuring heavy passing attacks and the disappointment of David Johnson and Leveon Bell last week, it seems like a week where people will be paying up at Quarterback and wide receiver. Rodgers, Ryan, Brady and Brees carry premium price tags and the decision to pay up for them will also draw ownership onto their primary weapons. While our ownership projections aren't released yet, I expect that will draw traffic to the following:
- At wide-receiver WR Julio Jones and WR Jordy Nelson should be the top targets given their consistency and brand value, while WR Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks will still garner some ownership but to a lesser degree after disappointing opening nights. Meanwhile look for mid-range values like Randall Cobb and Chris Hogan soak up a little bit more.
- Tight ends from these games will also provide gamers some options as Rob Gronkowski should be a preferred high-end option, while those looking to save will lean on Coby Fleener who was not priced up after a strong Monday Night Football performance. I am curious where ownership projections land on Austin Hooper after a couple breakout plays last weekend.
- Cover boy Ty Montgomery offers the loan chalk running back from this set of games, given his heavy workload. He is deserving of the chalk selection and offers game flow proof safety. Meanwhile, Mike Gillislee could pick up some ownership but there is enough fear of the Patriots backfield situation to prevent too much chasing of his 3 TD performance.
If roster constructions go as I expect them to in the featured NFL games this week, it will do a couple of things for the rest of the games:
- Clear ownership on high-priced RBs like Leveon Bell, LeSean McCoy, and Ezekial Elliott
- Take ownership pressure off expensive wide-receivers like Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham and AJ Green in “tough matchups” for week 2
- Depress ownership on stacks with moderately high totals including Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Carolina and Seattle who all are projected above 24 points on the week
These are some of the situations to decipher this week. I will personally be spending some time on pivots at the wide-receiver and tight end positions once our projections are relased. For our thoughts be sure to check out our premium strategy article, projections and ownership projections from the Unsourced Fantasy Collective.
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