NFL DFS Experiment: Puzzle-Piecing Paradigms Week 4
Last week was a no good, really bad week. Don’t believe me? Look for yourself.
This week though, things got turned around.
As always, if you’re unfamiliar with what I’m doing here, please don’t hesitate to look back to the introductory piece!
Week Four (week five of NFL season)
Changes in criteria have been bolded:
- Colin Drew – Pairing of two pass catchers with a quarterback. (The big change to Colin’s criteria was the removal of the cap on the quarterback price)
- Mike Leone – wide receivers ranging from $6,800-$7,400 with expectations of low-mid ownership (Once again Mike provided me with a list of wide receivers, but they all fell in this range. I left this bolded because the salary was tweaked a bit, but this really doesn’t stray far from where he has been all season)
- Drew Dinkmeyer – running backs priced at $5,000 or below with an average of two receptions per game.
- DFSalbatross – tight end less than $4,000 from high implied total game (I deemed “high implied total game” as one of the top 25% of totals)
- ME! Logan Hitchcock – WR in Flex less than $5,000 (I went back to this trend after deciding that only four weeks of RZ data wasn’t enough to entirely base decisions on. Silly me)
Reminder on Tracking:
Tracking the success of these trends is somewhat unfair - especially since they tie to each other and restrict the player pool at each position (particularly if a trend affects more than one player on the roster) but, I’m going to track them anyway. Using a made up statistic called APPA (average points per player affected).
For example, Colin Drew’s trend affects three players on each team. By totaling their points and finding the average, I can see how large a footprint his trend left on a team on average.
Here are the totals from this week:
|QB + 2 Pass Catcher Pair||19.11|
|<$5,000 RBs with > 2 catch avg.||18.21|
|WRs between $6,800-$7,400||23.58|
|TE < $4,000||9.13|
|WR in Flex <$5,000||18.51|
TRUE EFFECT = APPA – (3*(AVG. SALARY OF THOSE AFFECTED)/1,000 + 6)
|QB + 2 Pass Catcher Pair||-5.61|
|<$5,000 RBs with > 2 catch avg.||-1.94|
|WRs between $6,500-$7,600||-3.58|
|TE < $4,000***||-6.11|
|RB/WR with 25% > RZOpp***||0.48|
That was a successful week for each and every trend on the list! You’ll notice below how the teams actually fared in tournaments, but I’m pleased with the results of each individual trend here.
A few big movements that need to be pointed out:
- Mike Leone IS A BALLER. I’m putting together a spreadsheet to be able to easily track the entire season’s worth of data but Mike has had a rough go in a few weeks, essentially being a home run or a strikeout. This week was a long home run. Once again he took advantage of this price range of wide receivers, exploiting opportunities and volumes for heavily used number two wide receivers or even number ones, without the price tag correspondence.
- The switch back to the WR <$5,000 in Flex was a big time move for me. Sammie Coates led the way, but Cameron Meredith got some big shots in too and you’ll see that by “True Effect” (salary neutralization and comparison to WHAT WE WANT) this was the only trend with a true net positive outcome. Keep in mind though, that the threshold for True Effect is a point total for what we expect to come close to winning GPPs, so even small negative numbers are great.
- It might overlooked for now, but when I get the spreadsheet available you will all see how steadily consistent Drew Dinkmeyer’s trend has been. Running back has been heaven for value and there are still enough pass catching running backs below $5,000 that are easily exploited.
- It was a common theme to pay down at TE this week, but don’t get all over DFSalbatross about consecutive bad weeks.
|Week||High Score||Low Score||Avg. Score||Cash Line||Weekly ROI||Total ROI|
*Week one of this experiment is actually week two of the NFL season.
BOOM SHAKALAKA AGAIN! You can tell based on the cash line that this week was a high scoring week around the industry, but the experiment produced impressive results nonetheless. We broke the 200 point barrier, carved out a weekly high ROI and brought the yearly ROI out of the negatives! THESE GUYS ARE MAKING ME RICH (not really, but kind of?, no?, oh. ).
WEEKLY PROJECTIONS | DST PROJECTIONS | K PROJECTIONS | TARGETS | CARRIES | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
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