NFL DFS Week 1: Barrel Aged Wisdom
You've probably come looking for 2Ton's #HotSizzleTaeks for week 1, but even 2000 lbs of wrath and sizzle can't stand up to Irma's onslaught. If he manages to find an old Tandy in the backroom of a public library in some other state he may well return in following weeks. GOD SPEED 2TON!
Know what's overrated though? Hot takes. Being the only guy out on a life raft of sadness in the middle of the lake of self-aggrandizement is a great way to drown. If you're playing cash games, LIKE YOU SHOULD BE, there's no good reason to fade the chalk other than wanting to brag about your great “sleeper” to people who don't care about your fantasy team. Sleepers, by definition, are simply a play that was bad enough that no sharp player was interested in. Enjoy luckboxing your way to the cash line once every couple months friend.
I am an old man. At nearly 37 I've essentially lived half my life already. I'm half way to male life expectancy and I'm at peace with that. IT'S ALL DOWNHILL FROM HERE! I've worked a lot of jobs in a lot of different industries and like a fine wine or bourbon, have soaked up a lot of wisdom along the way. I'm here to offer you my #BarrelAgedWisdom instead of hot takes.
There are two important rules for DFS in my book:
- Use the consensus top projected plays.
- Allow your opponents to make the mistakes.
What amazing good fortune for you that we've got all kinds of glorious tools for the 2017 NFL season including Red Zone data, Targets, Snap Counts, and a plethora of Historical Production stats. All this, and more, goes into developing the weekly projections available to you to make the good plays clear, and the plays that you should mock your friends over even more clear. There's your #HotSizzleTaeks for NFL DFS week 1. #HotSizzleTaeks are overrated.
If making money on the backs of reliable players is too boring for you, then please scoop all my H2Hs in the lobby. My kids will thank you for the new Pokemon 3DS games you'll afford them.
Russell Wilson, SEA vs GB
Russ appears to be back to full health from his injury plagued 2016 and is ready to give defences fits again trying to defend his dual threat attack. I always like using QBs with some running ability in cash games as it helps to build in a solid floor to their production. Green Bay is a generous matchup for any opposing QB (28th vs the position in 2016) and the high scoring expected by Vegas totals only adds to his appeal. Let everyone else pay up for drunk Tom Selleck in Green Bay.
Carson Wentz, PHI vs WAS
Carson Wentz does not appear to be good. At this price though, he only really has to be not bad. Priced around $5K he was good for 15+ DK points in 9 of 14 weeks which are pretty good odds that he'll get to the 3x value you're shooting for. That's the kind of data you can expect access to with our Historical Production tools. Wentz has shown very little upside as a passer though, so he's likely ill advised as a GPP play. The low price might tempt you, but cheap QBs are almost always fool's gold in tournaments because they lack the ceiling to win large field contests.
Andy Dalton, CIN vs BAL
The Red Rocket has a plethora of deadly weapons at his disposal. A healthy A.J. Green accompanied by post-hype sophomore Tyler Boyd, Brandon LaFell, and TE Tyler Eifert make for a pretty tough to handle receiving corps for even a great secondary. Even better for Dalton truthers is the matchup with the sub-par secondary of the Baltimore Ravens who were 19th vs WRs and 28th vs TEs last season. Our projections model expects about 37 pass attempts this week in a succulent matchup which makes him a solid volume play as well. A lot of the talk in Cincy has been around the trio of RBs in their stable, but Andy Dalton will be a quality play in week 1.
LeSean McCoy, BUF vs NYJ
In 2016, cash games became the monotonous task of plugging in Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson and then trying to find enough $3K plays to fill out your lineup. Certainly Bell and Johnson will regularly accrue a lot of interest again in 2017, but LeSean McCoy may wind up just as regular a play in cash games this season given the total dearth of talent around him in Buffalo this season. What are they going to do, let Tyrod wobble mid-range passes for Jordan Mathews to drop all season? It's not like Percy Harvin – I mean Zay Jones – can do it all on his own either. McCoy will have a ton of volume this season in an offence that is likely to feature him in both the running and passing game for as long as he can stay healthy. Enjoy week 1.
Todd Gurley, STL vs IND
Todd Gurley was a massive disappointment of Cloverfield proportions in 2016. It appeared that he should be able to meet value each week on volume alone, but nearly everyone underestimated just how bad Jared Goff and the Rams offence could really be as he exceeded 3x value only three times all season. This is a new season free from the demoralizing shackles of mediocrity that Jeff Fisher held on the team, so here's to hoping an increased role in the passing game and another season for Goff to learn how to play QB works out in his favour.
Carlos Hyde, SFG vs CAR
The 49ers are in general bereft of talent on offence, but thankfully, their pricing is in agreement with this assessment. The Panthers are not a matchup for RBs that you'd like to attack, but if you're looking or a cheap RB or Flex beggars can't be choosers. Hyde projects for nearly 19 total touches in the DR model for this contest, so he should have decent volume to work with. I'm by some work of sorcery he manages to score a TD you're off to the races.
Michael Thomas, NO vs MIN
Michael Thomas projects as the top scoring WR on the slate in Week 1.
That's not a typo.
With the trade of Brandon Cooks to NE, all those targets have to go somewhere and they can't ALL go to Ted Ginn Jr. folks. Michael Thomas showed the talent that made him a top draft pick in 2016 and he looks to be the top receiver in the highest volume projected passing offence in week 1 of 2017. You're welcome to try to do the math yourself if you'd like, or you can just use the promo code “NFL17” when you buy our Premium Season Pass and let us do it for you.
Ted Ginn Jr., NO vs MIN
See the above positive affirmations for Michael Thomas and cut your expectations by half. Voila! You have Ted Ginn Jr..
Chris Hogan, NE vs KC
This idea that Chris Hogan will simply step into Julian Edelman's injury vacated role in the Patriots offence are silly. Hogan is a different player with a different skill set, despite that fact that the eye test says they are gritty, scrappy, possession receivers that are more quick than fast. All this being said, Hogan should see a few more targets due to Julian's departure and as such becomes a good value if you are playing the long sweat slate starting on the Thursday night kickoff.
Greg Olsen, CAR vs SFG
This probably isn't a week that I want to pay up at TE with some of the value options available, but if you're dead set on spending a bunch of money of a part-time blocker, Greg Olsen is a solid pick. The 2016 season was just about a worst case scenario for Carolina but a week 1 matchup with the forlorn 49ers should remedy a lot of their disappointment. The Niners were the second best matchup in the NFL for opposing TEs in 2016 and as such make Greg a great call.
Zach Ertz, PHI vs WAS
As I mentioned with Carson Wentz earlier, the Eagles are all cheap like borscht this week in a matchup where thy project for nearly 41 pass attempts. Ertz should certainly see a solid share of those coming his way once Alshon Jeffery exits with an injury midway through the first quarter. The price is low, the volume is high, and the talent is at least acceptable. It's a good combination for a value TE.
Coby Fleener, NO vs MIN
The Saints receivers are all under priced compared to their opportunities to accrue points and so it's not surprising to see yet another one of them pop up here. Coby Fleener isn't exciting. Andrew Luck narrative street is there for him to drive down anymore in Indy and the truth is he's kind of mediocre at best, but sub $3K you don't need even mediocre to reach value.
Buffalo Bills vs NYJ
The Bills get to face the most talent deprived offence in the NFL. This may be a battle for the first overall draft pick in 2018 even though one of these team will wind up tied for first in the AFC East after week one. SAD!
Indianapolis Colts vs LAR
The Colts defence is really cheap and the Rams offence has yet to prove they aren't really bad. I'd be sure not to put Gurley and the Colts in the same lineup, but both of them have reasons to draw your interest. The Rams were the most desirable matchup for opposing DSTs in 2016 so having a really cheap option to face them with to kick off 2017 is pretty, pretty, good.
SWEET STACKS OF SYRUPY GOODNESS
Our very own Drewby wrote a brilliant piece last week looking at positional correlation and stacking strategies for GPPs. If you're playing large field tournaments this week, these are some of my favourite stacks for your consideration ranked in order of deliciousness.
Buttermilk Pancakes with Maple Syrup
Seattle – Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham
Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams
Aunt Jemima Flapjacks with Butter Flavoured Syrup
New Orleans – Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr.
Jimmy Dean Microwavable Pancake Substitute
Buffalo – Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Buffalo DST
NFL season has returned and we now get to look forward to the most wonderful time of the year for sports fans with the CFL in full swing, NFL rolling, MLB heading into the playoffs and the NBA and NHL just on the horizon. Happy Fall time friends! May all your kids be back in school and all your lineups crush the cash line. Good luck in all your contests!
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