NFL DFS Week 6 WOAT: DraftKings Weekly Ownership and Trends
This will be a weekly series discussing DraftKings Weekly Ownership and Trends (WOAT) in Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments that we can use to better ourselves as DFS players. If pricing were perfectly efficient, some DFS players could beat GPPs on ownership alone. Vince Lombardi once said ownership isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.
Week 6 Look Back
Most weeks I spend many hours more on NFL DFS than I care to admit. However, last week I was busy with life and I probably put in hours more typical of the casual DFS player firing off Sunday lineups. I definitely wasn't as in tune with the pulse of what would be "chalk" and how lineup construction varied. That said, I think there was a clear lesson to be learned and that was getting a read on how lineup construction of one singular position can dictate where ownership goes as much as the actual value presented. Last week that position was running back where Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, and Lamar Miller were in great spots to perform and carried high $6k to $7k price tags. LeSean McCoy and Miller had massive days while Bell and Murray were serviceable - if not spectacular. Having one or two of these guys ended up being the optimal approach for both GPPs and cash games. But we're not here to talk about optimals. We're here to talk ownership!
The thing about these players being so popular was that they immediately drove the wide receiver market. The next batch of highest owned players included names like Cameron Meredith, Tavon Austin, Michael Thomas, Jalaen Strong and a group of $6k receivers like Randall Cobb and Jarvis Landry. Several of these cheap receivers delivered, but if you looked at the wide receiver position in a vacuum, maybe only Meredith would have cracked positional lists. In fact, none of them were in our Top 20 for raw projections. However, guys like Cameron Meredith in Golden Tate were popping into all of our optimal lineups if you just ran projections. Clearly the market had decided that there was a core group of running backs that were too good to fade and this dictated the rest of the lineup decisions and ownership. On this given week it worked and many gamers who went this route were rewarded. But it is worth considering, as we think about popular plays, how it will force people into certain price bands at other positions - and as a result, where we can get unique in roster construction.
Ownership – Key Stacks
With stacking being the most popular GPP strategy, the way people approach stacks is always interesting to me. What are the most popular stacks? Are there sharp and square stacks? Again, leveraging The Fantasy Fanatics we can take a look at in-depth granular ownership data on how people are approaching their stacks...
Are people seriously still not stacking? Are you not stacking? When looking at Sharp vs. Square ownership of the top stacks I noticed that players in the $333 Wildcat are stacking 3.3x more frequently on average then lower stakes counterparts. That ish cray. Some of the most popular tactics utilized by the sharper DFS players includes...[sociallocker] pairing up a RB with the DST as McCoy/Bills, Murray/Titans, and Howard/Bears were all among the 10 highest owned stacks. In addition to that, we saw 7x more sharps trying to capture the Tavon Austin / Rams D "double dip", hoping Austin would take a return to the house and score points for himself in addition to the defense. Being thoughtful about correlating defense is something the highest stakes DFS players are doing. The other highest owned "sharp to square ratio" plays of the week included 3-man stacks, which is becoming much more frequent at high stakes than elsewhere. We saw this last week with Houston, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Detroit being the teams sharps were attacking to a much greater degree than the public.
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
The first thing that jumped out to me when reviewing our early projections was the availability of lots of quarterback values. Seven of our top 10 quarterbacks come at salaries of just $6500 or less, including four at $6000 or below. We're also found with some pretty clear value at wide receiver. While I can't give away all of the premium goods, I think it is no longer a secret that Cameron Meredith projects as a great value again this week (as he has the last two weeks in DailyRoto's model). There's also some running back value this week, nothing CRAZY, but some mid-4's, 5's, and 6's for sure. So if we have value at QB and some value at WR and RB, I think that definitely leads us to being able to afford the wide receivers we love to pay up for! AJ Green is in a juicy matchup and I imagine we'll see Dalton/Green stacks end up as some of the more popular ones at all buy-in levels. There is also a lot of flexibility to pound the mid-range of the wide receiver corps with the Mike Evans and Allen Robinson's of the world. It sounds so blasé after this nice build up, but it truly seems like it might be a balanced week. You could see people pay down at QB and go balanced. This means paying up for someone like Antonio Brown or Le'Veon Bell at industry high prices with plenty of QB woes would be the contrarian route. Remember, just because we want to do something different does not mean we should do something stupid. What we are really looking for is high projected / low owned players that we can capitalize on when we feel the market is being inefficient.
Be the first to know
Want FREE Fantasy and Gaming Advice and Savings Delivered to your Inbox? Sign up for our Newsletter.