NFL GPP Week 12 Recap: WILSON!
NFL GPP Week 12 Recap: WILSON!
A top performance in an NFL GPP this week signaled one of two things. First, you either avoided all of the deathly chalk and found the perfect tournament performances, or second, you rostered Russell Wilson on his birthday - or both!
Wilson was one of many players that helped differentiate lineups from the crowd this weekend and helped others take home a big pile of cash.
If you didn't use him, please take the time to say sorry by watching this clip.
|Adrian Peterson||2RuTd, 158 RuYds, 29RecYds, 2Rec||35.7||31.7|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||1RecTd, 142RecYds, 9Rec||32.2||24.7|
|Russell Wilson||345 PaYds, 14RuYds, 5PaTDs||38.2||35.2|
|Doug Baldwin||3RecTd, 145RecYds, 6Rec||41.5||35.5|
$2 Million NFL Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $200,000 to First Place
Team: Russell Wilson, Adrian Peterson, Chris Ivory, Odell Beckham Jr, Doug Baldwin, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Reed, Blair Walsh, Minnesota Vikings
$175K Gunslinger, $1,065 Entry, $35,000
Team: Russell Wilson, LeSean McCoy, Alfred Blue, Martavis Bryant, Odell Beckham JR, T.Y. Hilton, Gary Barnidge, Chris Boswell, Seattle Seahawks
$100K Sunday Monster, $300 Entry, $15,000 to First Place
Team: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Draughn, Spencer Ware, Brandon Marshall, Jarvis Landry, AJ Green, Rob Gronkowski, Steven Hauschka, Baltimore Ravens
Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1 Million to First Place
Team: Russell Wilson, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Rawls, Doug Baldwin, Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, Julius Thomas, Amari Cooper, Chiefs
$15 Million Fantasy Football World Championships Q, $1,000 Entry, $1,000 + Ticket to First
Team: Blake Bortles, Tevin Coleman, Adrian Peterson, Odell Beckham Jr, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Julius Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald, Bengals
$600K Blitz, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First Place
Team: Ben Roethlisberger, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Stevie Johnson, Julius Thomas, Doug Baldwin, Ravens
So What Happened This Weekend?
Death to the chalk! Each week we are forced to make plenty of decisions while we’re making our GPP lineups. Do we need to be contrarian for the sake of being different? Or should we ride the chalk and hope to fit together each piece of the puzzle?
The table below might give you a hint at what direction you should have gone this week.
DK Own% / Points
FD Own% / Points
|DeAndre Hopkins||51.5% / 8.6||52.9% / 6.1|
|Julio Jones||20.3% / 10.6||22.9 % / 8.1|
|Chiefs D||20.3 % / 5||26% / 5|
Prior to Sunday lock, everyone knew that DeAndre Hopkins was going to be owned at an insanely high rate. He was playing against the Saints! Fool-proof matchup, right? While all signs pointed towards Hopkins having a huge day, using him in tournaments kept you from being able to differentiate your lineup from a whole host of other lineup makers. The decision to fade Hopkins was a scary one, but by doing so, you gave yourself a large leg up on the field if he had a bad game. It’s now Tuesday morning…if you’ve got a lot of money in your pockets, you faded the chalk.
Who Made The Difference?
For the past few seasons, football fans have been lucky enough to witness the defensive prowess of the Seattle Seahawks. The Legion of Boom and the 12th Man created a bit of a defensive dynasty. Even when trading for Jimmy Graham in the offseason, no one batted an eye about a potentially potent Seahawks offense, that’s not what the team is about.
But….if just for a moment, one particular week, the Seahawks offense dominated GPPs.
I included both Doug Baldwin and Russell Wilson in the top performers table for this week, but I’d like to show you just how big of a difference they made in tournaments.
Now, I know that using Baldwin instead of DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t a complete “swap” in terms of salary, but simply choosing to use Baldwin and Wilson, two incredibly low ownership players, lineups were able to leapfrog thousands and thousands of others thanks to their performance against the Steelers.
It’s not necessarily the usage of Wilson and Baldwin that is important here, it’s the choice to do so. Shifting ones’ paradigm away from the chalk, regardless of how scary, gives you the opportunity to make the most of a crippling performance from a chalky option.
To Gronk or Not To Gronk…
I’ve mentioned above, and many times before that avoiding the chalk is a valuable tournament strategy. Given the fact that recent weeks have continued to push down Gronk’s ownership levels, it makes him a viable tournament option, especially since the Patriots were without literally every other weapon they’ve had all season.
Therefore, I’ve deemed this last week an acceptable Gronk week. But while using Gronk was a perfectly fine strategy this week, I’d like to point out once again, that you didn’t need to use him. The price discrepancy between Gronk and the rest of the tight ends means that he really needs to payoff his salary to make him the top tight end option each week, even though, if we’re evaluating their abilities, he’s the elite talent.
Gronk’s ownership levels were right were you’d like them if you did happen to use him in GPPs, at 6.3 and 5.4 percent owned on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. However, he didn’t separate himself from the pack like necessary in order to truly make a difference in tournaments. As a result, most of the winning lineups this week had a different tight end, namely Julius Thomas.
Below I’ve once again gone through the quarterbacks used in the top 20 lineups of both of the major tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Sunday Million, FanDuel : THREE different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. TWO LESS quarterbacks than last week – Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Difference in highest and lowest score = 6.3 (Wilson – Rivers).
Millionaire Maker, DraftKings: SIX quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. ONE MORE quarterbacks used than last week: Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers. Difference in highest and lowest score = 17.36 (Wilson - Manning)
Notice anything special about the quarterbacks that were used in the winning lineups this week? None of them were on the board as “top options.” In fact, of these quarterbacks used, none of them had more than 10% ownership! I’ve noted all season long that differentiating at quarterback was a perfectly sufficient way to try and separate yourself from the field because the spectrum of potential quarterback points is smaller than that of the skill positions. Above I pointed out that the difference between using Russell Wilson and Philip Rivers was only six points, while the difference in points for Doug Baldwin and DeAndre Hopkins was more than 25 points. This is a common trend I’ve expressed all season long, as you’ve probably noticed that the quarterback isn’t the player winning GPPs (albeit the crazy 7 TD performance from Drew Brees earlier this season).
Keep in mind, that DraftKings uses a three point bonus for quarterbacks that throw for over 300 yards. Typically, those that are near the top of the leaderboard are ones that have eclipsed this mark, slightly inflating the difference between the top and bottom, and also the difference in point total from DraftKings to FanDuel.
Congratulations to all the winners from this week, and to the losers, sorry!
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