The SportsGrid MEGA Super Bowl Sports Betting Preview
The SportsGrid MEGA Super Bowl Sports Betting Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers have vanquished all comers and we are finally here: The Big Game. The Chiefs and 49ers will be facing off in Miami in the 55th edition of the game. This is the first time since 1969 that the Kansas City Chiefs have played in the game. It will be the first appearance for Patrick Mahomes, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, George Kittle and many of the other star players on both teams. We know why you are here though: Big Game Sports Betting.
This live, up-to-date article will be continuously updated from all the SportsGrid betting and fantasy experts with picks, props, NFL sports betting modeling updates, Showdown analysis and more. As we run the SportsGrid models, get access to evermore exotic prop bets and continue to research the game, this page will feature more and more information in each coming day.
Super Bowl Preview Table of Contents
By SportsGrid Staff and Davis Mattek
As expected, the SportsGrid betting model has the Kansas City Chiefs as a two-point favorite over the San Francisco 49ers at a neutral field. Many of our readers (and writers) feel the same way and early prognostications have the 49ers as the “sharper” side and the Chiefs as the more “public” side. However, most of the numerical ways to analyze a game will favor Kansas City. The Chiefs rank second in total team DVOA (from Football Outsiders), though they are 14th in defensive DVOA and San Francisco is second. The Chiefs were second in the NFL in yards per play on offense while the 49ers were fifth.
It is important to remember as it relates to the Chiefs, however, that a significant portion of their sample on offense this season includes Matt Moore (two and a half games worth of passes) and a banged-up Mahomes. The only notable injury for the 49ers on offense in terms of skill position players was both Tevin Coleman and Matt Brieda missing a few weeks here and there with small injuries. By and large, after the trade for Emmanuel Sanders, the 49ers had their full cadre of weapons on offense.
The model understands that Patrick Mahomes is the fastest player ever to reach 75 passing touchdowns and amongst all QB’s aged 24 or younger in NFL history, he has the best adjusted yards per attempt in the post-merger NFL. So much of NFL sports betting comes down to projecting quarterback play and there is no QB who is going to project better than the Chiefs signal-caller, Patrick Mahomes.
Further more, the model ALSO has the under as a five-star play in this game. This line is the most likely portion of the game to move is very related to how inflated Super Bowl totals get. The “public” very much likes to bet overs and models are always going to be on the side of unders due to injuries and variance and the SportsGrid proprietary model is no different.
By SportsGrid Staff
All of the SportsGrid sports betting personalities are publishing their picks right here! Of course, as a network, we will have countless videos, podcasts and radio hours dedicated to discussing the Super Bowl but this is the Nexis of all the SG picks, all in one spot!
Expert Super Bowl LIV Picks
Davis Mattek: Kansas City -1.5 And Over 54
Scott Ferrall: San Francisco to WIN and cover +1.5 and over 54
Cam Stewart: San Francisco +1.5 and Over 54
Jim Day: Kansas City -1.5 and Under 54
Matt Kaye: Kansas City -1.5 and Over 54
George Kurtz: San Francisco +1.5 and Over 54
Joe Gallina: Kansas City -1.5 and Over 54
Rich Cirminiello: San Francisco +1.5 and Over 54 w/ a final score of SF 33 KC 28
Shaun Guastamacchia: San Francisco +1.5 and over 54
Drew Martin: Kansas City -1.5 and over 54
Joe Pisapia: Kansas City -1.5 and under 54
Dan Strafford: Kansas City -1.5 and under 54
Frank Stampfl: Kansas City -1.5 and over 54
Dane Martinez: Kansas City -1.5 and under 54
Alex Fasano: San Francisco +1.5 and over 54
Scott Wetzel: San Francisco +1.5 and under 54
Jared Lee Smith: San Francisco +1.5 and over 54
Chris Ventra: San Francisco to WIN (+1.5) and under 54
As renowned poker and sports betting author Ed Miller points out in his book The Logic of Sports Betting, the increased competition in the US sports betting market has created a very favorable situation for bettors. Sportsbooks are trying to attract new players with a variety of different tactics, ranging from deposit bonuses, to risk-free bets, too bad beat refunds, and everything in between. If you are considering placing a bet for the big game, you should make sure to take advantage of potential deposit offers.
Fanduel is offering new customers a $500 risk-free bet. Place a bet on your favorite team and you will be refunded if it doesn’t win.
DraftKings is offering new customers a 20% deposit bonus of up to $500. DraftKings will also match your first bet with a $500 risk-free bet.
PointsBet is offering new customers $1000 in risk-free bets. They are also offering a payout on Moneyline bets if your team scores the first Touchdown. Pre-Game, Moneyline Bets Only. 1st $50 Staked will be paid out as a winner.
Willam Hill is offering new customers $50 in free bets when they make their first $50 wager.
Check back throughout the week as we update this section with more promotions or special offers.
By SportsGrid Staff
If you are new to betting player props, be sure to check out our piece on How to Bet Player Props. At a high level, player proposition bets, or “player props” are one of the most common ways to bet on the big game, allowing you to bet on everything from passing yards to how long the national anthem will be. Player props often have a higher margin for error the game odds, creating opportunities for bettors.
Our NFL Player Props Tool is powered by the DailyRoto machine learning algorithms from some of the most successful daily fantasy sports players, and will provide you with a live comparison of current player prop odds at Fanduel to DailyRoto’s statistical projections. With some sportsbooks offering hundreds of player props to their customers, it can be daunting, but our team has also hand-picked some of our favorite Big Game player props. Please note, as with all wagers, getting the right price is as important as choosing the right side of the bet. Odds listed below are available at the time of publication and updated lines can be found in our NFL Player Props Tool.
Overview of Available Props
The Fanduel and DraftKings sportsbooks (and other legal, US based Sportsbooks) have started to inudate the market with player props. If you are looking to gain your edge, our NFL-specific player props tool will move with the market and display the lines at your sportsbook of choice while also comparing them to the Daily Roto projection. This is an easy way beat the book during the 2020 Super Bowl. That tool can be found HERE.
The Daily Roto Model’s Best Super Bowl Player Props
Kendrick Bourne OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards
The Daily Roto model has this as one of the better prop bets that you can make for the Super Bowl at the Fanduel Sportsbook. Bourne’s total is listed at 21.5 yards but the model has him projected at just a hair over 30 yards. Bourne has played over 25% of the 49ers snaps in each of their playoff games and had 40 yards receiving in the divisional round against the Minnesota Vikings.
Damien Williams OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards
This is yet another prop that the Daily Roto model has off by a few degrees. The prop that is widely avaiable for Damien seems to project him in a timeshare but that is not the case. He has played 97% and 85% of the Kansas City Chiefs snaps on offense in the playoffs and recorded 12 and 17 rushes in each of these games. Daily Roto has Williams projected for 68.27 rushing yards, well over his total.
Mecole Hardman OVER 1.5 Receptions
The Daily Roto projections are certainly more bullish on Mecole Hardman’s playing time than the markets are. Most of Hardman’s props are low across the board but 1.5 receptions is interesting to the model as they have him just a shade under 2 receptions but higher in targets. Hardman has five targets in the Chiefs two playoff games and should be involved here against the 49ers.
Emmanuel Sanders OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards
A general trend from the Daily Roto projections to the Fanduel and DraftKings player props is that the lines are all sort of projecting a slower-paced game. The Chiefs and 49ers are both top-half of the league and pace but more importantly, the Chiefs should force the 49ers to pass more than their seasonal averages. Sanders’ is projected for over 50 receivingy yards in the Daily Roto model but has a player prop of only 41.5.
Exotic Props (Soon!)
Fanduel Hurry Up Super Bowl Prop Bets
By Colin Drew
The emergence of single-game contest formats on Fanduel and DraftKings made the Big Game more than just a betting spectacle, as millions of dollars can now be won in daily fantasy sports contests. Fanduel is offering a $9 entry fee tournament with $3,000,000 in total prizes and $1,000,000 to first place, while DraftKings is offering a $10 entry fee tournament with $4,000,000 in total prizes and $1,000,000 to first place.
DailyRoto’s Colin Drew has won 15 five-figure Showdown prizes and is here to help you out with picks for the single-game contests formats. Check out DailyRoto or more insight on showdown strategy and to access DailyRoto’s fantasy projections and lineup optimizer for the SuperBowl showdown slates on Fanduel and DraftKings.
In the 18 Chiefs games this year, Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs in scoring five times, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce four times each, with depth wide receivers leading in another three games. Mahomes is the most likely player to be the winning captain and if he is your captain should be paired with at least two pass catchers from the Chiefs. However, I expect both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to be lower owned than Mahomes and have similar likelihood to land on the winning roster, while providing more salary flexibility and having lower ownership. Kelce has the same fantasy point projection as Hill but offers $2500 in savings on DraftKings. Travis Kelce is my favorite DraftKings captain selection, pairing him up with Mahomes at the FLEX position, while Tyreek Hill can be used more comfortably on Fanduel where he is $500 cheaper than Kelce.
On the San Francisco side of the ball, while the rotation of players has changed, the RB position has led the 49ers in scoring in 7 of the 18 games this year. Even if Tevin Coleman is cleared to play, Raheem Mostert could be a candidate to receive twenty touches and emerge as the 49ers leading fantasy player. However, Mostert should be popular off of a 50+ point fantasy performance against the Packers, and while we know the 49ers would prefer to run the ball we don’t know if they’ll be able to or if they’ll be forced to a more balanced attack. Instead, my favorite 49ers Captain selection is TE George Kittle. Kittle led the 49ers in scoring in five separate games this year, and if the 49ers are forced to throw to keep pace with Mahomes and company it is Kittle that is most likely to produce a GPP winning performance. Even in a 150 lineup build, I think it is reasonable to fade Jimmy G at the captain spot and focus the majority of your ownership on Mostert, Kittle, Deebo Samuel or Manny Sanders.
Best Value Play
As blah as it sounds, the individual kickers are legitimately the safest value options on the Super Bowl showdown slate. Both defenses projected for just above 5.5 fantasy points, while both kickers project for just over 8 fantasy points. While they are priced a bit higher than an average slate, both Harrison Butker and Robbie Gould are projected to outscore everybody priced cheaper than them on DraftKings. The value plays on this slate are thin in general, and all of Demarcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, Mecole Hardman, Blake Bell, Kyle Juszczyk could easily put up less than 5 fantasy points. I would limit exposure to multiple kickers (see the correlation section below) on the same lineup but expect to have overall high exposure to both Butker and Gould in my 150 lineup builds.
With just five targets over the previous two weeks, it may be surprising to see Mecole Hardman recommended as a value play but his price ($2200 on DraftKings and $6000 on Fanduel) and an increasing role has him as exactly that. The more dynamic Hardman out-snapped Demarcus Robinson in the conference championship and possesses big-play upside while also connecting to a higher volume Mahomes passing attack. Hardman is a riskier option, but his 90th percentile ceiling is higher than anybody priced at a similar level. Hardman is your KC WR ceiling punt while Kendrick Bourne is your SF WR punt.
Correlation is king in single game fantasy contests, and understanding how to create correlation in your lineups based on your captain selection is critical. Below are a few rules I will be using when building my showdown lineups.
Pair Captain WR or TEs with their respective quarterback. If Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce is your captain and scores the most fantasy points on the day it seems probable that Patrick Mahomes has thrown them touchdown passes. If George Kittle is the captain, it is likely that the 49ers were forced to throw and Jimmy G was involved. The exception to this rule is probably Deebo Samuel who receives a few carries in many games. For players like Samuel, I would still want Garoppolo on the lineup in a single entry contest, but consider allowing him to be played alone in a 150-max MME build.
Avoid Negative Correlations for team DST and Kickers. With the 49ers preferring a run-heavy approach of late, and the Chiefs depth wide receivers usually with between 1-4 targets per game, the team defense and kicker units will be important value decisions. While anything *can* happen, we would prefer to avoid having strong negative correlations on lineups. The team kickers have roughly a -0.25 correlation with each other, while team defense has a -0.45 correlation with QB-K and -0.25 correlation with kickers and running backs. Consider avoiding playing the opposing team DST against your captains and avoiding playing kickers in multiple lineups. If using the DailyRoto optimizer you can create negative boost rules to help restrict these combinations.
The Taekcast SuperBowl Showdown preview