Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin Betting Insights

The boxing world is set to get treated to the third showdown between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin on Saturday night from T-Mobile Arena.

These two have already met twice, which has seen Alvarez get the better of Golovkin in one, while seeing a split draw occur in the other, even if you disagree with how the judges scored it. However, a third fight was always necessary between these long-time rivals, with their most recent bout dating back to 2018. Both sides feel they have something to prove and the betting market has a lot of interesting things to say about how the public feels this time around, almost four years to the date of their last meeting. 

Most bet props
  • Canelo Alvarez (MEX) by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ (+150)
  • Gennady Golovkin (KAZ) by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ (+800)
  • Canelo Alvarez (MEX) in round 10 (+1400)

Alvarez by TKO?

Even though Alvarez has two victories in this matchup, there’s a case to be made that his power has only increased since, making him a much more dangerous fighter in this trilogy. The power and strength that he’s added to his already impressive arsenal continue to make him a difficult matchup, so it shouldn’t be surprising that one of the most bet props on the BetMGM Sportsbook has been for him to win by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ at +150. Regardless of how you think the other fights have gone and were scored, Alvarez is more dangerous this time with a more well-rounded game, so there’s value following the public here. 

Can GGG Knockout Alvarez?

This is somewhat of a longshot, judging by the long odds, but Golovkin is listed at +800 to win by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ, a popular direction the public has taken with this fight. However, it’s not a complete surprise with both fighters’ ability to end a fight with one punch. Still, there’s a reason why GGG has much longer odds than Alvarez to end the fight, so looking in this direction may not pay off.

Betting Insights

Regarding the fight’s outcome, some sharp money has been placed on Alvarez, despite Golovkin occupying more of the tickets and handle. Alvarez is listed at -450 to win, seeing 22% of tickets and 33% of the handle head in his direction. With no real value on Alvarez’s odds for small wagers, sizable bets on him make sense if you’re looking for a decent payout. Golovkin has seen 52% of tickets and 55% of the handle in his favor, but that shouldn’t be shocking with his odds opening at +300 and sitting at +350.