DFS Golf: Dustin Johnson Is A Top Players Championship Value
Breaking Down the DFS Field For The Players Championship
Just like that, a $10,200 Jason Day notched his second win of the year at Quail Hollow. He was under the radar all week leading up to the Wells Fargo Championship and came in at just 15.2% owned in DraftKings’ “PGA $200K Fore” tournament. Right behind Day was the 21 year-old rookie, Aaron Wise, who finished T2 with Nick Watney. Wise had a lot of hype surrounding him since joining the PGA Tour and was right in it all week. Some notable missed cuts included Louis Oosthuizen, Ryan Moore, Kevin Kisner, Gary Woodland, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood, and Alex Noren.
This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to compete for The Players Championship, and the “fifth major.” Si Woo Kim ($7,200) looks to defend his title after a shocking win a year ago. The leaderboard from last season did not feature many high-profile players within the Top 10. Consider this when building your DK lineups. Anybody can succeed at TPC Sawgrass and it might even be a good idea to leave a portion of your salary cap on the board for tournaments.
- SG: Approach the green
- Par 4 Birdie or Better
World No. 1 Provides Value in Top Tier
Like most star-studded fields, the top of the board on DK can be tough to decipher. As usual, we have five players priced above $10,000. For the second straight week, Rory McIlroy leads the way at $11,600. I will be fully fading him in all formats. Unless you have lots of confidence and are a typical Rory user, there is no reason to pay this premium price for him in this type of field. McIlroy is followed by last week’s winner, Jason Day ($11,400), Jordan Spieth ($11,100), Justin Thomas ($10,800), and finally, Dustin Johnson at just $10,300. It seems as if this Top 5 is in reverse order. For the past year we have seen DJ lead the way in about every field he is in. Though his course history at TPC Sawgrass is not overwhelming, he does not need to do much to return value. Johnson remains the top-ranked player in the world and is criminally underpriced in this spot. Even being the fifth most expensive player this week, DailyRoto still gives him the best odds to win (5.66%). DailyRoto’s optimization tool has Johnson rated as the best overall value when considering DraftKings pricing. Though I am not too intrigued by any player in this upper tier, DJ’s price is just too good to ignore. Take advantage of the spot he is in.
DailyRoto PGA Projections find Value in Stenson & Mickelson
Of everyone in this field from top to bottom, there is only one player who ranks inside the Top 10 in every key stat: Henrik Stenson ($8,800). This season, Stenson is first in SG: Around the Green, fourth in Scrambling, and 10th in Par 4 Birdie or Better. Though he has been fairly quiet this season and not played in the States very much, his form heading into this week is pristine. Since missing the cut at Valspar, Stenson has finished respectively fourth, T6, and T5. He has made five of his last six cuts at The Players with four of the five resulting in Top 20 finishes. DailyRoto has him as the ninth best value on their PGA Projection model. At just $8,800, Stenson provides a nice floor and allows you flexibility moving forward as you fill out the rest of your roster. He could go a bit overlooked in this strong field but can be played in any format.
Phil Mickelson does not come around priced at $8,400 very often. In fact, he hasn’t been priced below $9,000 since the Waste Management Phoenix Open at the beginning of February. You would expect his ownership to skyrocket being at this price, but I don’t think that’ll be the case this week. Mickelson ranks sixth in both SG: Approach the Green and Par 4 Birdie or Better, and 16th in Scrambling. He has made eight straight cuts with five of them resulting T6 or better. So many people will put a heavy emphasis on course history, and all signs point to fading Mickelson when looking at his past results. Prior to his T41 last year, he missed four consecutive cuts at The Players. This is a nice leverage spot to roster Mickelson at low ownership in tournaments. He comes in as the third best value on DailyRoto’s PGA Projection model.
Other Options: Jon Rahm ($9,300), Justin Rose ($9,100), and Bryson DeChambeau ($8,300)
Stable Floor in Hadwin, Johnson Priced Below $8,000
I think it's safe to say that Brooks Koepka ($7,700) will not be priced down here again this year. There are still some questions coming off his injury, but we have seen solid play out of him in each of the past two weeks since his return. Koepka is still the 11th ranked player in the world and has a lot to play for if he wants to stay up there. This pick is based solely on his price point, but don’t overlook Koepka when building GPP lineups.
Zach Johnson has not missed the cut at The Players since 2008. In that stretch of nine consecutive cuts made, he has six finishes that were T26 or better. Johsnon is 27th in Scrambling, and 15th in Par 4 Birdie or Better so far this season. His last time out was a solo fifth at the Valero Texas Open and he has yet to miss a cut. Johnson is a safe bet in cash games this week.
Adam Hadwin ($7,300) is another player in this range who has not missed a cut this season. This feels like a spot where Hadwin is going to succeed. He provides you with some salary relief off of the top options and also gives you a nice floor. Hadwin is 21st in SG: Approach and 42nd in Par 4 Birdie or Better this season. He is currently riding a streak of five straight Top 25 finishes. A made cut would basically pay this price tag off.
Other Options: Alex Noren ($7,900), Patrick Cantlay ($7,500), Webb Simpson ($7,300), Beau Hossler ($7,100), and Ryan Palmer ($6,900).
Dustin Johnson Featured Image: (AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)
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