DraftKings Plays for the 2018 Farmers Insurance Open
This past weekend’s CareerBuilder Challenge marks two straight weeks in which the tournament had to be decided in an eventful playoff. Jon Rahm had his ups and downs on Sunday, but ended up proving he was the best in the field after capping off his second win on tour. However, Andrew Landry hung right in there with Rahm before falling to him on the fourth playoff hole. Landry had a very impressive outing with his career-best solo second place finish. This marks Rahm’s third Top 10 finish thus far in the 2018 season and shows that he can contend in just about any event.
Most of the players that got off to a hot start remained at the top of the leaderboard through Sunday. Austin Cook was in a great spot all week before shooting a 75 (+3) on Sunday resulting in a T14 finish. We saw some excellent performances from Jon Huh, who went a combined -13, which was good enough for a T3. Also, rookies Brandon Harkins, Aaron Wise, and Andrew Putnam all finished T17 or better.
Tiger Returns at Torrey Pines
This week the PGA Tour visits Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open with a much stronger field. The headline this week is going to be the return of Tiger Woods. We already know that he is going to get a majority of the coverage on TV, so get ready to see every single one of Tiger’s shots. His return could benefit experienced DFS golf players. There are going to be Tiger fans who put in lineups with little knowledge outside of the top players. Anything can happen in golf, but this is a safe week to do large field 50/50’s.
Course information. ⛳️
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 22, 2018
Farmers Insurance Open DraftKings Insight
Jon Rahm leads the way again this week at $11,800 followed by Rickie Fowler ($11,400), Hideki Matsuyama ($10,800), and Justin Rose ($10,600), the only four players priced above 10k. Of the top tier players, the majority of people will likely flock to Jon Rahm if they decide to pay up. He won here at Farmers a year ago and just got a win this past weekend which could obviously drive up his ownership. On the other hand, Rickie Fowler’s ownership could be lower than some expect. He carries a hefty price up at $11,400 and has a very poor course history, missing three of his last four cuts at Torrey Pines. The last time he made a cut in that span was in 2015 where he finished T61. I will be overlooking Fowlers history at Torrey Pines because he has been in great form over the past calendar year. At this price, he is probably best fit for tournaments, as I do not see many paying up for him. Next is Hideki Matsuyama who is in a similar spot as Rickie Fowler, as he has missed two of the last three cuts at this event. Again, given he is a world class player, I am willing to overlook the fact that he has not had much success here as of late. Being a $1,000 discount off of Rahm provides nice salary relief and Matsuyama is arguably a better player. He has only missed two cuts in his last 25 events. Of the four 10k-plus players, Justin Rose should be the lowest owned. Rose is an intriguing play whenever in the field, but if I’m paying for anyone in this range, I’d find a way to fit in Matsuyama at just $200 more.
The 10K Tier
When we go down to the players that are priced just under 10k, this is where the high ownership is going to be. Starting with the story of the tournament, Tiger Woods ($9,700). While I could see him being highly owned, I am going to completely fade him until I see more. I expect Brian Harman ($9,600), Patrick Cantlay ($9,500), and Marc Leishman ($9,200) to be very popular as well. They are all viable options, but there is better value on the board. Jason Day is very appealing at just $9,400. After a 2017 season where expectations were high for Day, he had an off year. This could leave many wary of rostering him, but he could be a very nice buy-low. Day showed good form in the fall with a pair of T11 finishes. He has missed the cut the past two years at this event, but won in 2015, finished T2 in 2014, and T9 in 2013. I prefer Day over anyone from $9,000 to $10,000, but he is probably best suited for tournaments.
Bombers to Buy Into
The next range of players are going to get a lot of attention as well. Gary Woodland ($8,600) and Tony Finau ($8,700) are popular names in the DFS industry, as many are waiting on one of them to break through with a win. I find them both very appealing in cash games and rostering either could be the way to go. Since this is a bomber’s course, it is a favorable layout for both Finau and Woodland.
Coming off of a poor outing at the CareerBuilder Challenge, Patrick Reed is criminally underpriced at ($8,400). He had at least one win on tour from 2013-2016 and I fully expect him to get another this season after failing to do so in 2017. Reed doesn’t play at Torrey Pines, but from a value standpoint alone he is worth taking a shot on. Since 2015 he has only missed 11 cuts in 88 events. I expect him to bounce back after a missed cut last week and believe many of his owners from a week ago will completely fade him.
Other bombers to target: are Xander Schauffele ($8,100), Jamie Lovemark ($7,400), J.B. Holmes ($7,400), Trey Mullinax ($7,100), and Luke List ($6,800).
The Value Tier
When dropping down to $7,000 and below, there is still tons of value to be found. At first look, I’m not quite sure how Bill Haas and Emiliano Grillo are priced at just $7,000. Taking a look at the players priced around these two, it seems as if it is a mistake in the pricing. Both are top 80 in the OWGR and are previous winners on tour. Course history and stats might not line up great for them, but this is a good spot to take advantage of their low prices. Players under $7,000 that are good values plays include Chesson Hadley ($6,800), Tom Lovelady ($6,700), and Corey Conners ($6,600).
Mulligans of the Week
With a T3 finish at the CareerBuilder Challenge this past weekend, Martin Piller has made a name for himself. Piller has made four of seven cuts here in the 2018 season, two of which resulted in top five finishes. Currently ninth in the reshuffle, it looks like Piller is a must-add.
After a streak of four missed cuts, Tom Lovelady shot (-13) this weekend, good for a T29 finish. Currently 30th in the reshuffle, Lovelady is playing in everything he can as he will tee it up for the eighth time in the short 2018 season at the Farmers. Lovelady is ranked 14th in driving distance this season and is well suited for this week’s tournament. Get the rookie while you can.