2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Golf Picks
I guess 72 holes just isn’t enough to decide a winner on the PGA Tour this season. The Waste Management Phoenix Open was forced into a playoff after Chez Reavie birdied his final two holes. A par in the first playoff hole by Gary Woodland, however, was enough to get the job done. Woodland finally got the monkey off his back with his first tour win since 2013. As I mentioned in my Farmers Insurance Open article, it was only a matter of time before Woodland broke through with a win.
Fantasy Golf Picks for the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Aside from Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau, there were not a whole lot of notable missed cuts. However, do you know what is worse than a missed cut? A withdrawal. Hideki Matsuyama owners had their lineups torn apart with his WD on day two of the Waste Management Phoenix Open to ruin his owners’ lineups. Although fading Matsuyama seemed impossible heading into the tournament, it looks like it might not have been such a bad idea after all. Same goes with J.J. Spaun, who dropped out after just 10 holes, earning his owners just three DK points. Missed cuts can drag your team down, but a WD almost knocks you right out.
With just two tournaments to play on the west coast swing, the tour visits Pebble Beach, California for the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. Jordan Spieth will look to defend his title going against the likes of Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Jason Day. This is one of the more talented fields we have seen thus far on tour from top to bottom. Having so many of the world's most prestigious golfers priced at the top, it leaves lots of value elsewhere.
Stars and Scrubs Strategy
Dustin Johnson leads the way this week priced at $11,700 followed by Jon Rahm ($11,400), Rory McIlroy ($11,100), Jason Day ($10,900), and Jordan Spieth ($10,700). Of the five players priced above 10k, I think that Johnson and Spieth make the most sense. There is enough value further down the list on DraftKings, which allows you to pay the premium price of $11,700 for the top ranked player in the world.
Dustin Johnson has started in two events this year, which resulted in a T2 and a win. He also has an unbelievable course history at Pebble Beach in which he has made eight of nine cuts including six top seven finishes, two of which resulted in a win. With people weighing so heavily on course history and seeing the type of player DJ has been recently, his large price tag will not scare many off. After missing the cut by one stroke at the Phoenix Open last week, Jordan Spieth may be the one people will fade up at the top. We already know about DJ, Rahm is on a roll, McIlroy is making his season debut, and Day is coming off a win. Like I said with DJ, however, course history is weighed heavily by some. Spieth has never missed a cut at Pebble Beach in five attempts, all of which resulted in a T22 finish or better. He makes for an intriguing option priced $1,000 below DJ.
In the next tier of players who are priced under $10K, I would expect Gary Woodland ($9,900) and Patrick Cantlay ($8,900) to be the most popular. I’ll never be one to talk anybody out of picking either of these guys, but they seem a bit overpriced. I would like to think they raised Woodland’s price because they are factoring in his win at the Phoenix Open, but I find it very hard to roster him at ($9,900). When I can pay just $800 more for Spieth, I will find a way to work him into my lineup.
I will be dropping down to $8,700 and rostering Adam Scott. Although we have not seen Scott so far this year, he provides a nice floor priced under $9,000. Nothing is guaranteed, but he has only missed three cuts since 2016. In his last 35 events played on tour, 24 of them resulted in a T25 or better. Not knowing Scott’s form will lead many people to fade him. I was surprised to see Adam Scott in this field since he has only played the event once, which resulted in a T52 in 2010. The course history factor will not come into play with Scott, which could result in low ownership.
Other Options in This Range:
Pat Perez ($8,600) has quietly snuck his way into the Top 20 in the Official World Golf Rankings. He has made six straight cuts at Pebble Beach and finished T14, T41, T4, T7, T50, and T58. Perez is currently ranked fourth in birdie or better percentage.
Pebble Beach week. 🌊⛳️
It's here. 😀😀😀😀 pic.twitter.com/WXrwNspMeT
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 5, 2018
Kevin Kisner ($8,200) has yet to miss a cut this year and recorded a T17 and T25 in the Hawaii events to start the season. He ranks ninth in birdie or better percentage.
With the exception of Austin Cook, I have absolutely no interest in anyone priced from $7,000-$7,600. Normally, some players see a soft pricing and fall in this range, but not this week. Seeing how much value is below $7,000, I think a stars and scrubs approach is the way to go when building your DraftKings lineup.
Values Below $7K
Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($6,900) stuck out to me like a sore thumb. Before the pricing even came out, I saw the field and was excited to see that Cabrera-Bello was playing at Pebble Beach. How can the 21st ranked player in the world be priced under $7,000? Rafa Cabrera-Bello played in three events on tour in October and placed no worse than T11. I will have a hard time fading him on DraftKings this week. Another name down here by Cabrera-Bello who’s a nice value play is Bryson DeChambeau ($6,900). He has shown much more consistency this season and had a nice outing at the Phoenix Open with a T5. He did not have much luck in his first trip to Pebble Beach last year, but this is a whole different golfer than we saw last year.
Other value plays under $7K: Jason Kokrak ($6,900), Scott Stallings ($6,700), Russell Knox ($6,700), Russell Henley ($6,600), and Graeme McDowell ($6,600)
Mulligan of the Week
Stallings is the field again this week after a T23 performance at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He has already made five cuts in eight starts on tour and is looking like a high-volume player for season long leagues. This is a good week to look at Stallings, as he looks to be in good form and made his first cut here last year with a T14. Although Stallings has been far from impressive in the past couple of years, he is a three-time winner on tour and is showing signs of improvement. Add Stallings while you can because he is trending upwards.
Dustin Johnson Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
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