Fantasy Football Week 10 Matchups: It’s a Gio Bernard Kind of Week
Reminder: Defense Adjusted Fantasy Points (DAFP) is a custom-built metric used to calculate adjusted FPPG allowed for defenses by position. All skill players aren't created equal, nor are the offenses. DAFP looks to balance the offensive and defensive variations by opponent to give you a truer FPPG allowed number. Using DAFP Fantasy Football matchups helps make the tougher start/sit decisions a bit easier.
Week 10 Matchups: TWO UP AND TWO DOWN
|Quarterback Points Allowed|
|1||Washington Redskins||NO||25.9||15||Arizona Cardinals||SEA||15.6|
|2||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL||24.6||16||Cleveland Browns||PIT||15.5|
|3||Minnesota Vikings||OAK||23.5||17||New York Jets||BUF||15.4|
|4||Green Bay Packers||DET||23.5||18||Buffalo Bills||NYJ||14.8|
|5||Dallas Cowboys||TB||21.6||19||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||DAL||14.5|
|6||New England Patriots||NYG||21.4||20||Oakland Raiders||MIN||14.1|
|7||Baltimore Ravens||JAX||21.4||21||Denver Broncos||KC||13.7|
|8||St. Louis Rams||CHI||21.1||22||New York Giants||NE||13.6|
|9||Philadelphia Eagles||MIA||20.9||23||Tennessee Titans||CAR||12.9|
|10||Pittsburgh Steelers||CLE||19.6||24||Miami Dolphins||PHI||11.5|
|11||Cincinnati Bengals||HOU||19.4||25||Houston Texans||CIN||11.0|
|12||Detroit Lions||GB||19.0||26||Seattle Seahawks||ARI||10.9|
|13||New Orleans Saints||WSH||18.7||27||Chicago Bears||STL||9.6|
|14||Carolina Panthers||TEN||17.5||28||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN||8.3|
Blake Bortles, JAX – I talked about giving Bortles his deserved respect in this week's All In Deal column, and you can pencil him in for another Top 10 week. In fact, for the rest of the season, Bortles will be among my Top 10 QBs, and I love his schedule – not one intimidating matchup from here on out; that includes a terrific matchup with a Ravens team allowing 24.6 DAFP to quarterbacks. A common player often used in the same sentence as Bortles, thanks to his breakout season, is Derek Carr. While I have been impressed, a matchup with the Vikings is much less enticing. The easiest comparison is that the Ravens have allowed 16 passing touchdowns to just nine for the Vikings.
Kirk Cousins, WSH – This is the true test of matchups and player skill. Cousins has a touchdown in every game but only multiple scores in one. That came against the Bucs when he threw for 317 and three TDs. A matchup with the Saints presents the same upside, especially with DeSean Jackson on the field. I'm not rushing to start Cousins this week, but if your quarterback is Phillip Rivers or was Andrew Luck, Cousins is a nice streamer.
Alex Smith, KC – Look at that number for the Broncos. Do you want any piece of that defense? Only two quarterbacks have thrown for two touchdowns (Josh McCown – go figure – and Andrew Luck). They've kept three quarterbacks from throwing any touchdowns, and that includes the first matchup with Smith, when he threw for just 191 yards. Stay away.
Jay Cutler, CHI – I'm one of the bigger proponents for Cutler and his being underrated in Fantasy because of his risk and not seeming to care. However, I won't be in his corner this week… not with a road matchup against the Rams. They are barely friendlier than the Broncos at 9.6 DAFP and have only one game where a QB threw for more than one touchdown – Aaron Rodgers.
Other Matchup Boosted QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford
|Running Back Points Allowed|
|1||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||DAL||26.7||15||Tennessee Titans||CAR||17.0|
|2||Philadelphia Eagles||MIA||26.7||16||Houston Texans||CIN||16.4|
|3||Green Bay Packers||DET||26.6||17||Oakland Raiders||MIN||14.9|
|4||Pittsburgh Steelers||CLE||26.3||18||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN||14.3|
|5||Cincinnati Bengals||HOU||23.7||19||Dallas Cowboys||TB||14.1|
|6||Washington Redskins||NO||23.2||20||Denver Broncos||KC||13.4|
|7||Minnesota Vikings||OAK||22.6||21||Arizona Cardinals||SEA||13.2|
|8||New York Jets||BUF||22.5||22||Carolina Panthers||TEN||12.6|
|9||New Orleans Saints||WSH||22.3||23||New York Giants||NE||12.6|
|10||New England Patriots||NYG||21.0||24||Chicago Bears||STL||12.3|
|11||St. Louis Rams||CHI||19.9||25||Seattle Seahawks||ARI||11.1|
|12||Detroit Lions||GB||18.1||26||Miami Dolphins||PHI||10.5|
|13||Baltimore Ravens||JAX||18.0||27||Cleveland Browns||PIT||10.5|
|14||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL||17.7||28||Buffalo Bills||NYJ||9.4|
James Starks, GB – No one knows what is wrong with Eddie Lacy, but what we do know is that Starks is making Lacy look like that "fat" photo we saw last preseason. Starks has been more effective, and the Packers responded by giving him the "starter" designation. That's great news with the Lions on tap and allowing 26.6 DAFP. Even if Lacy stays involved, the Lions let all three Cardinals backs to reach double digits, Jeremy Langford to score 8.7 in a change of pace role and De'Anthony Thomas and Spencer Ware to total 16.4 while Charcandrick West had 18.2 before the bye.
Gio Bernard, CIN – The Texans have struggled against the run this year, but it's been more pass-catching backs than hard runners. Jamaal Charles, Charles Sims, Devonta Freeman, Terron Ward, Frank Gore and Lamar Miller are the ones to reach double digits with only Gore doing nothing in the passing game. Las week against an inside runner, the Texans held Antonio Andrews to 64 yards on 16 carries but did give up seven catches and 41 yards to him and Dexter McCluster. This game screams Gio-based gameplan.
Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell, CLE – What a surprise; the Browns backfield is frustrating again this year. Not only is it annoying to see inconsistent usage with this team, but the Steelers have quietly been playing terrific run defense and give up the second fewest DAFP. With shared touches and tough matchup, I'd bench both Browns running backs where I could.
Jeremy Langford, CHI – Don't expect the same level of success for Langford this week. No, you likely can't sit him if Matt Forte is out again, but don't use him in DFS. In addition, if Forte plays, both become risky options, as Forte could aggravate his injury and shared touches hurt both players.
Other Matchup Boosted RBs: Doug Martin and Charles Sims, DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, DeAngelo Williams, Matt Jones, Adrian Peterson, Chris Ivory
|Wide Receiver Points Allowed|
|1||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL||34.1||15||Detroit Lions||GB||24.6|
|2||Denver Broncos||KC||32.0||16||Carolina Panthers||TEN||23.2|
|3||Dallas Cowboys||TB||31.5||17||Cincinnati Bengals||HOU||22.6|
|4||Washington Redskins||NO||31.5||18||Buffalo Bills||NYJ||21.7|
|5||Green Bay Packers||DET||30.6||19||New York Giants||NE||21.6|
|6||Baltimore Ravens||JAX||30.3||20||New York Jets||BUF||19.4|
|7||Cleveland Browns||PIT||28.6||21||Seattle Seahawks||ARI||17.6|
|8||New Orleans Saints||WSH||28.6||22||Oakland Raiders||MIN||16.5|
|9||New England Patriots||NYG||28.1||23||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||DAL||15.9|
|10||Miami Dolphins||PHI||27.9||24||Tennessee Titans||CAR||14.1|
|11||St. Louis Rams||CHI||27.7||25||Houston Texans||CIN||14.1|
|12||Philadelphia Eagles||MIA||26.1||26||Arizona Cardinals||SEA||12.7|
|13||Pittsburgh Steelers||CLE||25.7||27||Chicago Bears||STL||12.1|
|14||Minnesota Vikings||OAK||25.5||28||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN||11.0|
Allen Hurns, JAX – I don't even know what to say anymore. I thought we were past this, yet I'm still getting questions about picking Hurns up because he was dropped during the bye and/or if he should start. He's WR9 on the year! If healthy, Hurns is a MUST-start in all lea… ah, forget it. If people aren't on board by now…
DeSean Jackson, WSH – DJax has always been a boom/bust receiver, as he often finishes near or inside the Top 25 receivers with half of his points coming in a handful of games. This is the type of matchup that can turn into a Jackson day of 100-plus yards and a score, or two. The Saints allow 31.5 DAFP to receivers and let players like Terrance Williams, Josh Huff and Dwayne Harris reach double digits against them. Jackson is better than all of them.
Jeremy Maclin, KC – Just as with Alex Smith, you want no part of this matchup.
Titans Receivers – You're not sitting Alshon Jeffery, even against the Rams, and we all know that the Cardinals trio is already risky each week (not knowing who will get left out) and with the Seahawks matchup this Sunday. So let's talk about the Titans. You don't want to start any of them, even if Kendall Wright returns (doubtful). Dorial Green-Beckham had his best game but still needs more snaps to have consistent value, Justin Hunter is all hype and Harry Douglas is, well, Harry Douglas. If Wright is out, Douglas should have the best matchup with Josh Norman focusing on DGB or Hunter, but even so, it's a lot of risk for a mediocre receiver.
Other Matchup Boosted WRs: Allen Robinson, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, Dez Bryant, Pierre Garcon, Randall Cobb and Devante Adams, Travis Benjamin, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead
|Tight End Points Allowed|
|1||Washington Redskins||NO||12.7||15||Baltimore Ravens||JAX||6.8|
|2||Minnesota Vikings||OAK||12.2||16||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN||6.7|
|3||Arizona Cardinals||SEA||11.7||17||Houston Texans||CIN||6.4|
|4||New England Patriots||NYG||11.1||18||Philadelphia Eagles||MIA||5.9|
|5||Pittsburgh Steelers||CLE||10.9||19||St. Louis Rams||CHI||5.9|
|6||Carolina Panthers||TEN||10.4||20||Buffalo Bills||NYJ||5.5|
|7||Green Bay Packers||DET||10.0||21||Chicago Bears||STL||5.3|
|8||Detroit Lions||GB||9.4||22||New Orleans Saints||WSH||5.1|
|9||Dallas Cowboys||TB||8.9||23||New York Jets||BUF||5.1|
|10||Oakland Raiders||MIN||8.8||24||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL||4.8|
|11||Cleveland Browns||PIT||8.6||25||New York Giants||NE||4.5|
|12||Cincinnati Bengals||HOU||8.4||26||Seattle Seahawks||ARI||3.9|
|13||Tennessee Titans||CAR||7.7||27||Miami Dolphins||PHI||3.8|
|14||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||DAL||7.1||28||Denver Broncos||KC||3.8|
Kyle Rudolph, MIN – Some Antonio Gates owners are looking for a solution this week, and Rudy could be just that. Yes, he's been extremely disappointing over his career compared to his talent and upside, but the Raiders are a great matchup, allowing 12.2 DAFP to tight ends. If Rudolph is ever going to have a big week, it this Sunday, especially when the Raiders let Kellen Davis and Jesse James find the end zone the last two games.
Richard Rodgers, GB – Rodgers is another option for tight end needy owners. He’s touchdown reliant, but the Lions have only kept opponents' tight ends out of the end zone twice. One of those games was Martellus Bennett, who still had 59 yards on six catches.
Vernon Davis, DEN – Even the Broncos admitted it could take weeks for Davis to get acclimated to the Broncos system. Well, don't expect miracles against the Chiefs. Even though they are awful against receivers, they’ve locked down tight ends all year, allowing just 3.8 DAFP with a high score of 7.2 (Virgil Green) and just two touchdowns overall.
Marcus Mariota, TEN – The Eagles' linebackers help them give up just 3.8 DAFP as well, and they've actually allowed just one touchdown to tight ends. That came from Ben Watson in Week 5, and he still scored just 9.6 points. The next highest score is a mere 6.5 points (Greg Olsen) with the other six teams' tight ends failing to reach 6.0 Fantasy points.
Other Matchup Boosted TEs: Jordan Reed, Rob Gronkowski, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen, Eric Ebron
Photo Credit: Hooman Tehrani
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