WEEK FIVE – FINDING THE BEST MATCHUPS
Now that we have four weeks of data, team’s strengths and weaknesses are starting to formulate. One of the key metrics that is used for weekly fantasy football is Fantasy Points allowed by position. This is a strong indicator of finding value based on matchup from week to week. However, you also have to correlate this number against the ranking of the opposing player to find the absolute best matchups.
Week 5 - Best QB vs. Worst Defense
1)Peyton Manning (1) $190,000 vs. Dallas (29)
2)Michael Vick (5) $146,300 vs. NY Giants (27)
3)Philip Rivers (4) $156, 000 vs. Oakland (24)
4)Matthew Stafford (11) $159,900 vs. Green Bay (28)
5)Terrelle Pryor (18) $117,900 vs. San Diego (32)
6)Cam Newton (7) $156,700 vs. Arizona (20)
7)Drew Brees (2) $190,000 vs. Chicago (15)
Recommended strategy for QB-$250,000-300,000 allocation, 40-60 fantasy points
Manning / Brees with Pryor
Vick / Rivers / Stafford / Newton (any combination of these two)
Week 5 - Best RB vs. Worst Defense
1) DeMarco Murray (9) $116,000 vs. Denver (30)
2) LeSean McCoy (6) $140,500 vs. NY Giants (24)
3) Reggie Bush (4) $143,500 vs. Green Bay (19)
4) Jamaal Charles (2) $153,900 vs. Tennessee (15)
5) Arian Foster (11) $126,200 vs. SF 49ers (23)
6) Bilal Powell (15) $87, 800 vs. Atlanta (21)
7) Knowshon Moreno $105, 300(20) vs. Dallas (28)
Recommended strategy for RB-$200,000-250,000 allocation, 30-45 fantasy points
McCoy/Bush/Charles w/ Powell or Moreno
I would also recommend not taking a QB/RB from the same team unless it’s a receiving back like McCoy or Bush this week.
Week 5 - Best WR vs. Worst Defense
1) Victor Cruz (1) $154,300 vs. Philadelphia (32)
2) Josh Gordon (5) $100,100 vs. Buffalo (31)
3) Calvin Johnson (9) $149,900 vs. Green Bay (30)
4) Julio Jones (3) $133,300 vs. NY Jets (23)
5) Demaryius Thomas (2) $154,300 vs. Dallas (20)
6) Randall Cobb (8) $125,200 vs. Detroit (17)
7) Desean Jackson (11) $116,700 vs. NY Giants (19)
8) Dez Bryant (10) $144,600 vs. Denver (18)
Recommended strategy for WR - $200,000-$250,000 allocation, 30-45 fantasy points
Cruz/Johnson/Thomas/Bryant with Gordon (Thursday)/Jackson
Taking the WR2 on teams like the Giants, Packers, and Broncos and pairing them with a WR1 like Jones, Bryant, Jackson is also a solid strategy this week.
Depending on what quarterbacks you roll with I recommend pairing at least Manning/Thomas, Vick/Jackson, Stafford/Johnson. I just cannot recommend Eli Manning with Victor Cruz.
Week 5 - Best TE vs. Worst Defense
1) Julius Thomas (4) $126,500 vs. Dallas (28)
2) Greg Olson (10) $81,400 vs. Arizona (30)
3) Jimmy Graham (1) $161,200 vs. Chicago (20)
4) Jared Cook (11) $77,700 vs. Jacksonville (24)
5) Charles Clay (8) $72,800 vs. Baltimore (21)
6) Antonio Gates (3) $101,300 vs. Oakland (13)
7) Dallas Clark (23) $49,900 vs. Miami (32)
8) Jason Witten (12) $95,300 vs. Denver (19)
Recommended strategy for TE-$50,000-$100,000 allocation. Depending on matchups, also if you spend $75,000+ on Tight End, you will have to reduce your budget at the FLEX positions which is only recommended if you are pairing Brees/Graham, Manning/Thomas.
I think the value on Olson and Cook is great this week due to potential blowouts. Also Clay is clearly the 2nd option in the passing game right now for the Dolphins. Clark is only a play in large field tournaments.
Week 5 - Best D/ST vs. Worst D/ST (Pts Allowed)
1) Carolina (5) vs. Arizona (23)
2) Buffalo (11) vs. Cleveland (25)
3) Baltimore (9) vs. Miami (21)
4) SF 49ers (20) vs. Houston (27)
5) New Orleans (15) vs. Chicago (22)
Strategy for D/ST
Look for matchups vs. bad opposing QBs.
The two biggest constants you can measure for a D/ST are points allowed and sacks, with interceptions/fumble recoveries a byproduct of the pressure applied on the quarterback who is most likely to make mistakes. The opposing QB rating is the strongest indicator of this.
20 pts (4 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 interceptions, 1 TD, 13 pts or less allowed)
15-19 pts (4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 2 interceptions, 1 TD, 20 pts or less allowed)
10-14 pts (3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 interception, 0 TD, 20 pts or less allowed)
Projecting D/ST is not just about looking at the average fantasy points allowed, you need to look at each week and how many times does a team allow at least 10 fantasy points through the first four weeks.
100%-Jacksonville, NY Giants
75%-Arizona, Cleveland, Houston, Minnesota, NY Jets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St Louis, Tampa Bay
It is worth nothing that both Cleveland and Minnesota have made quarterback changes that could lead them to be teams not starting D/ST against.
St Louis ($82,100) vs. Jacksonville
I like the Rams this week because Jacksonville is showing they are one of the worst teams in the history of the NFL.
Carolina ($79,100) vs. Arizona - The Panthers can apply pressure and had a monster game vs. the Giants.
Arizona has no running game, so teams can focus on shutting down Larry Fitzgerald and rushing Carson Palmer.
New Orleans ($53,500) vs Chicago - Saints D are top 3 in opposing QB rating and Cutler is known to make mistakes when he is under pressure.
Philadelphia ($47,500) vs. NY Giants - Very high risk play that can only be used in large field tournaments due to the defensive ranking of the Eagles, even though Eli Manning has been awful this year. We could see a lot of points in this game causing your points allowed to go through the roof.
Take a shot at the $100,000 Feud of Champions Series on Fantasy Feud 1-Week Fantasy Football Contests. Turn $1 into a seat in the $75,000 Week 16 contest this week with a $20 deposit today!!! CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS
Be the first to know
Want FREE Fantasy and Gaming Advice and Savings Delivered to your Inbox? Sign up for our Newsletter.