2022 MLB Home Run Derby Winner Odds and Value

Star sluggers will collide in the Home Run Derby on one of the best nights of the MLB season.

Below, you can find the best value play for the Home Run Derby on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

There’s a plethora of talent in the Home Run Derby tonight, and you can make a case that all eight hitters, including 42-year-old future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols, can take home the victory. That might not be the most likely outcome, with the St. Louis Cardinals great owning the worst odds of all eight participants at +2400. Pujols has entered the Derby four times in his career, with his most recent entry in 2015. Prince Albert has the fifth most home runs in MLB history with 685, trailing Alex Rodriguez for fourth at 696. He’ll take on Philadelphia Phillies power hitter Kyle Schwarber in Round 1, which heavily favors The City of Brotherly Love star. 

Meanwhile, Pete Alonso, the two-time defending champion, will look to win his third straight derby, and rookie phenom Julio Rodriguez will debut in the competition. Alonso has found the sweet stroke needed to win back-t0-back derbies and will enter as the odds-on favorite at +185. Alonso will have a difficult opponent in the opening round, taking on Ronald Acuna Jr., who loves the spotlight. The New York Mets’ first baseman has powered 24 home runs this season, tied for fifth overall. It’s clear that Alonso has developed the round-to-round consistency that you need to find success in this event, and it won’t be a shock to see bettors continue backing him tonight.

An interesting note is that Juan Soto and Jose Ramirez will collide in the four vs. five matchup, but Ramirez has the second worst odds to win the derby at +1600. Both power hitters have the pedigree to win this event, but the odds suggest Ramirez is a sizeable underdog.

There’s a lot of hype behind what Rodriguez is doing during his rookie campaign for the Seattle Mariners, who entered the All-Star break on a 14-game win streak. Still, Soto had an impressive performance in last year’s event and will kick off this contest with odds of +600, the third-highest on the board. Before the event, Soto reportedly turned down a $440 million extension with the Nats, which would have been the largest contract in MLB history. If Soto is indeed on the trade market, watching what he fetches for the Nationals will be one of the stories to watch ahead of the deadline, even if the team has his rights until at least 2025, when he’s eligible to be a UFA. 

Corey Seager, a former member of the Los Angeles Dodgers and current Texas Rangers shortstop, is set to take on Julio Rodriguez in Round 1, which hasn’t drawn the buzz of the other three matchups. Either of these two stars can make a run in this bracket, but there’s likely better value elsewhere. 

There’s a lot of anticipation as to whether or not The Polar Bear can win his third straight Home Run Derby, and that’s the most significant storyline surrounding this event. With that, there’s a lot of buzz percolating around Soto for this derby, and his price is difficult to pass up. After tasting the derby life last year, look for Soto to use that experience this time and take home the 2022 crown. 

Best Value Play: Soto to win (+600)

Listed here is the current price of all eight participants for the Home Run Derby tonight:

Player Current Odds
Pete Alonso 185
Kyle Schwarber 290
Juan Soto 600
Ronald Acuna Jr. 750
Julio Rodriguez 850
Corey Seager 1000
Jose Ramirez 1600
Albert Pujols 2400