6/16 MLB DFS Picks, Lineup Advice
6/16 MLB DFS Picks: The Red Sox are the Best Bett(s)
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 6/16 MLB DFS Picks.
Where to focus?
On a short slate with few offensive options, all eyes will be turned towards the Boston Red Sox tonight. The Red Sox have dominated right-handed pitching all year and tonight draw a matchup with contact oriented Tyler Wilson. Wilson hasn’t been terrible, but he’s allowed more than 30% hard contact and is striking out less than five hitters per nine innings. The Red Sox carry an implied run total of over five runs tonight, but once again it’s not going to be easy to roster more than one of the stars. The quarter of Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and David Ortiz all carry price tags of over $10,000 on FantasyDraft. If you’re looking to find cheaper exposure to the Red Sox offense, it can be done by using Hanley Ramirez ($7,800) or Travis Shaw ($7,600). The pair will have respectable lineup spots for their respective price tags.
The opposing dugout at Fenway Park will also have plenty of offense to choose from, as the Orioles will face left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been horrendous in his short time up this season, posting a 6.57 xFIP while allowing nearly three home runs per nine innings. Secondly, Rodriguez has struggled with his command this season, walking nearly four hitters per nine innings. While the Orioles have a propensity for striking out and haven’t been great in terms of wRC+ against left-handers, they have built up the seventh highest ISO against southpaws this season. Manny Machado ($9,300) and Mark Trumbo ($9,900) have accessible price tags and you can find some value attached to Adam Jones ($8,400).
Aside from Fenway Park, there are a few other options in lesser run scoring environments tonight. The Washington Nationals draw a matchup with the San Diego Padres in Petco Park, but against Erik Johnson their lineup is in play. Johnson is an extreme flyball arm that has yielded 3.86 HR/9 in his sixteen innings this season. Furthermore, Johnson hasn’t been able to shake his command problems, walking over four hitters per nine. The Nationals aren’t as terrorizing as the Boston Red Sox, but Daniel Murphy ($9,600) and Bryce Harper ($10,000) are two top options tonight. Plus, the Nationals present some value at the top of the order with leadoff man Ben Revere ($7,600) who has a depressed price tag on the site.
Last but not least, the New York Yankees have an implied run total above 4.5 runs tonight. The Yankees also draw a matchup with a contact oriented arm tonight in Kyle Gibson. While Gibson has never had a propensity for striking hitters out, he does get a heavy dose of groundballs and has not yielded much hard contact this season. The Yankees aren’t a great offensive lineup, but they do provide plenty of value tonight against Gibson. Alex Rodriguez ($7,600) and Brian McCann ($7,600) are both priced as great values tonight.
On the Bump…
Offensive options are abundant tonight, but the starting pitching field isn’t something to be thrilled about. The lowest implied run total tonight belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers in their matchup against Scott Kazmir ($16,500). While Kazmir isn’t near the most expensive pitcher on the slate, getting the Brewers on a huge negative park shift puts him in consideration at the top tonight. While the command hasn’t been there for Kazmir, he’s seen an increase in his strikeout rate that is backed by a consistent SwStr% over 10%. While the Brewers are known for their strikeout heavy nature against righties, it should be noted that they are also striking out over 22% of the time against lefties, good for the 12th highest rate in the league. Furthermore, despite giving the platoon advantage to most of the hitters in this lineup, they’ve ranked 23rd in the league in terms of wRC+ tonight. You’ve got to use two pitchers tonight, one should be Kazmir.
Finding that second starting pitcher isn’t easy either. Justin Verlander ($22,500) is the highest priced pitcher on the slate but his matchup with the Kansas City Royals is always one that forces us to pause. I’m not so fearful tonight though, as Justin Verlander has been exceptional so far this year and the Royals offense is not as strong right now due to injuries to Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon. Verlander has pitched to a 3.89 xFIP while boosting his SwStr% by nearly two percent followed by a huge increase in his strikeout percentage. The Tigers are slight road favorite tonight as Verlander looks to take advantage of a positive park shift in his direction.
Outside of Kazmir and Verlander, the next best option might be Tanner Roark ($20,000). Roark is not known as a strikeout pitcher, but this season he’s seen an increase in his SwStr% and accordingly his strikeout rate. While the strikeout increase is encouraging, even more so is the matchup with the San Diego Padres. The Padres are striking out the 4th most in the league against right-handed pitching and they’ve put together the league’s worst wRC+ in that time. It seems silly that Roark is priced at $20,000 and is still on the radar, but that’s what we have to work with tonight.
Aside from this trio, Aaron Nola ($18,400) should come into play tonight. Nola doesn’t draw an easy matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays, but he gets them in the National League where they’ll lose a dangerous hitter. Nola has been the Phillies saving grace this season, pitching to a 2.75 xFIP while striking out nearly ten hitters per nine innings. Despite their offensive prowess, the Blue Jays are a bit less threatening against right-handed pitchers, at least in terms of strikeouts – building the leagues thirteenth highest K% against right-handers.
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