August 18 MLB DFS Picks: Agent Of Shield
August 18 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
It's another exciting night in MLB DFS as both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering six figure prize pools! Drew Dinkmeyer of the DailyRoto Daily Fantasy Rundown shares some picks and analysis to help get you started with your lineups.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – The question with Kershaw is less about talent and matchup and more about price point and opportunity cost. Kershaw leads the league in xFIP (2.08) and is one tenth of a percentage point behind Chris Sale in K Rate (32.7 percent). The Athletics offense has slipped to 20th in wRC+ against LHP and they play in a very difficult environment for run scoring. The Athletics are above average at making contact and their home park deflates strikeouts due to a huge foul territory that helps turn foul balls into outs. Kershaw is exceptionally likely to pitch well, but this matchup and environment push his strikeout expectation down slightly. He remains the safest source of points at any position and a primary target in cash games, but this evening seems like one where the projected strikeout upside makes him an acceptable fade in tournaments.
James Shields (SD) – Shields is our favored value play on multiple SP spots and is a viable alternative to Kershaw in cash games. Shields faces a Braves offense without Freddie Freeman that simply lacks power. On the season the Braves rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP and 29th in ISO. The moves made over the deadline and into August have brought more strikeouts into their lineup (Bourn – 23 percent/.048 ISO, Swisher – 23.5 percent/.114 ISO) without adding much in the way of actual power. Shields has given up a ton of hard contact this year (31.5 percent, 17.4 percent HR/FB Rate) but against a Braves offense devoid of power, we’re optimistic that any hard contact can be kept in the park. Shields is a heavy favorite (-180) in one of the four games with a total at seven or below. His sub-par performance most of the year has kept his price tag reasonable and this matchup should hide his biggest weakness. Shields is our top value at the SP position and creates an easier path to top offensive environments than spending all the way up on Kershaw.
Like what you see? We go way more in-depth at DailyRoto.com, with advice from Drew Dinkmeyer, Mike Leone, and others, that produced three Millionaire Maker winners in 2014
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