August 19 MLB DFS Picks: Dallas And Houston
August 19 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
It's another exciting night in MLB DFS as both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering six figure prize pools! Drew Dinkmeyer of the DailyRoto Daily Fantasy Rundown shares some picks and analysis to help get you started with your lineups.
Russell Martin (TOR) – The Jays are the best offense in baseball against LHP and it’s by a rather wide margin (126 wRC+, next highest is 114). Martin’s price tag is down around the industry and the shift to the National League will likely keep him in a premier lineup spot. Adam Morgan has really struggled with RHBs (.358 wOBA, 34.1 hard hit rate, and 1.63 HR/9) at the big league level which brings all of the Jays elite RHBs in play. Martin is the one with the best price point and he comes at a thin position. He’s our primary target at the catcher position in cash games.
Dallas Keuchel (HOU) – For most of the season Dallas Keuchel’s modest K Rate has kept him hidden behind many of the other top tier starters in our DFS rankings. This is not the case on Wednesday. With most of the top tier starters in challenging matchups or pitching environments, Keuchel has emerged as a clear number one in our model. Keuchel has shown nice improvement as the season has worn on with his K Rate (March/April – 16.3 percent, May – 21.6 percent, June – 24.9 percent, July – 28.3 percent, August – 22.1 percent). With a K Rate in the twenties instead of the teens, the combination of his elite run prevention (2.36 ERA, built on 63.2 GB Rate and six percent BB Rate) and above average strikeouts earns him the top spot. The Rays rank second in the league in wRC+ against LHP, so the matchup isn’t great on paper; however, our model projects them as a below average offense against lefties with an above average K Rate. This season, they’ve lived on elite performances against LHP from: Longoria (.407 wOBA - profiles as sustainable), Forsythe (.396 wOBA – profiles as .340-ish), and Souza (.363 wOBA – now injured). The rest of the lineup has performed as average hitters against LHP when guys like Asdrubal Cabrera and Tim Beckham project as slightly below average. Our expectation that the Rays performance against LHP regresses over time coupled with challenging environments for most of the other top tier starters, makes Keuchel our top option this evening.
Like what you see? We go way more in-depth at DailyRoto.com, with advice from Drew Dinkmeyer, Mike Leone, and others, that produced three Millionaire Maker winners in 2014
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