DFS Picks: Big Papi For Big Money
July 7th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
It's another exciting night in MLB DFS as both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering six figure prize pools! Drew Dinkmeyer of the DailyRoto Daily Fantasy Rundown shares some picks and analysis to help get you started with your lineups.
David Ortiz (BAL) – Ortiz remains uniquely discounted to many of the other top tier first basemen. We’ve spent much of the year assessing whether father time had finally caught up with Ortiz and we’ve come to the conclusion that any effects are mostly taking place against LHP. Against RHP, Ortiz remains elite (.385 wOBA, .281 ISO, 1.23 EYE, and 40 percent hard hit rate in 2015). He’ll face Dan Haren who is showing significant signs of skill decline against LHBs. Haren has allowed a ridiculous 37.5 percent hard hit rate and 2.01 HR/9 to LHBs this season. The Red Sox have an implied run total approaching five which matches the offenses in Coors Field as the only implied run totals above that threshold. Ortiz ranks inside our Top Five hitters overall and represents a cost effective way to get exposure to one of the highest projected run totals. He’s one of our top overall values on the slate.
Brett Anderson (LAD) – Anderson is the largest favorite on today’s slate (-280) in a game with a total of just 7.5. This line gives the Phillies an expected run total around 2.8 runs which is among the lowest in action. Anderson combines an incredible GB Rate (68.4 percent) with above average control (6.7 BB Rate) to keep runs down (3.00 ERA, 11 of 16 starts with two earned runs or less). A below average K Rate (17.8 percent) hinders his overall projection and the upside accompanying it, but he did flash K potential in his last two starts (17 K in 14 IP). The Phillies possess a league average K Rate (19.7 percent) against LHP so our projections for Anderson’s K Rate in this outing are modest (21.3 percent) but the run prevention and win probabilities are high. Any pitcher that doesn’t miss bats is susceptible to BABIP risk but Anderson has a 26.1 hard hit rate allowed (Top 25 in the league) and the Phillies have the lowest hard hit rate as a team against LHP (22 percent). If you want to get exposure to the top offenses today, getting some salary relief at SP is a necessity. We believe Anderson is the safest route to that salary relief.
Like what you see? We go way more in-depth at DailyRoto.com, with advice from Drew Dinkmeyer, Mike Leone, and others, that produced three Millionaire Maker winners in 2014
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