Explaining Super 2, Chris Johnson, George Springer and Selfies
Closers… Sigh, let's move on. Rookies and George Springer. Now there is a topic bringing some happiness. Join @allinkid as he hits the Twitterverse to answer your questions about another closer conundrum, how to handle rookies and even a football question in April!
@Ti***SC: is Archie worth grabbing?
@allinkid: yes but only if room, as likely not until mid July to avoid Super 2
The tweeter was asking about Archie Bradley soon after George Springer's call-up. First, getting the "Super Two" status out of the way, a player can achieve Super Two by having less than three years of service time, but more than two. In addition, they have to rank within the Top 22 percent of all two-year players for service time. Does that make it clearer? Didn't think so. Just know that where it used to be June-ish to ensure a player didn't reach Super Two because it used to be 15 percent, it's now more in the July range. That means you have to stash these players – Gregory Polanco, Javier Baez, etc. – for a long time.
As for the thought process, any time you start thinking something, it means other owners are as well. Springer broke the dam for 2014, causing owners to worry about prospects earlier than expected. If you have a shallow bench or area of weakness where you need depth, don't waste two months on a bench spot held by a prospect. If you do have the room, certainly grab them, as you can get a Wil Myers-like boost for the second half of the season.
For reference, I'd consider these prospects in order: Gregory Polanco, Oscar Taveras, Jon Singleton, Archie Bradley, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Javier Baez
@ia***ee: This needs to be on every billboard "@allinkid: To ALL guys everywhere: pic.twitter.com/FWun9b7t1Z"
What is the pic we are talking about? Oh, just this one courtesy of @Adam4d:
Do not stray from this rule, men. In fact, women, you really should follow suit.
@Sr***tz: Ike Davis worth grabbing?
@allinkid: if nothing more than an upside power stash, yes, in most all leagues
Davis isn't that far removed from 32 home runs, but a repeat of that season seems like a pipe dream. Davis is crushing righties as he always has, and it's likely he remains in a platoon with Gaby Sanchez all season. However, if Davis sees revitalization with a fresh start in Pittsburgh, we could have a potential Top 15 first baseman on our hands if he has an everyday job. If nothing else, platooning will prevent Davis' average from hurting you, and his production against righties will bring plenty of value.
@Lizzs_Lockeroom: I'm with you on the #Flex Jake
Swerve! This is actually a football related tweet. I was talking about Chris Johnson, now that he is with the Jets. I have Johnson ranked as my 23rd running back, which puts him on the cusp of RB2 status, but more in the Flex area if you are in a 10-team league. You can expect a 50/50 split for Johnson and Chris Ivory next year, which should put Johnson around 180 carries. Even with a better YPC average (career worst 3.9 last year), we're looking at a 700-800 yard season with another 300 or so receiving yards. And that's assuming Johnson improves, as the Jets offensive line actually rated worse than the Titans. There are other options in Johnson's range that I'd rather own instead of hoping Ivory suffers an injury to vault Johnson's value.
@Th***16: how much FAAB you bid for Springer $260 budget 12 team 5x5 mixed
@allinkid: I would have to think double Gee or more then. Gee is a mid-level pitcher & Springer star potential. Prob around $100-$120!
This is always the biggest dilemma facing owners. How much FAAB do you spend on a rookie? For reference, he followed up the tweet saying Dillon Gee went for $40. The answer is always dependent on many circumstances, which is why it's tough to pin down an exact number. Look at Springer. We are talking about a potential 20/20, maybe 20/30, hitter with a sub-par average. In an auction, Springer would have fallen in the Top 25 outfielder range, which would give him a price of $18-22. That's your starting point, but now, you need to boost that number based on that projected production.
The price referenced is based off 12 teams drafting a full roster. We're talking about one player chased by all 12 teams with a full (or near-full) budget. If this were the next Mike Trout (Springer is not), you'd easily multiple that price by 10. After all, a Top 25 player is impossible to find post-draft. Top 50 player? More around 7-8 times; Top 100, 5-6; Top 150, 3-4; Top 200, double it; Lower? Depends on need, but around projected auction value or less, especially if it’s just a temporary fill-in. Using that math, and it's not perfect or an all-encompassing formula, Springer would call for an $80-$100 FAAB bid. Yes, Springer is worth that much! Of course, if you use a $200 or $100 budget, you adjust for the percentage difference. The FAAB bid also depends on your need (huge hole in the outfield, go higher) and/or if you have a full budget on hand.
Your head is still probably swimming from all of the numbers, but hopefully, it's now treading water instead of drowning... or, maybe you're at least not scared of the water...
@ra***95 Salazar will be a SP 2 at any time this year as my pitchers are killing me
@allinkid: had him at SP3 for the season bc walks too much - but Ks will carry him
I have received a ton of tweets about Salazar. Simply put, a pitcher won't have success at the Major League level if he walks over five batters per nine, while allowing a 20.0 percent HR/FB rate. Walks and home runs have always been an issue with Salazar. There is plenty of room to improve, as Salazar posted a 2.6 mark last year with much of his Minor League career falling in the high-twos. With less walks and better luck (.405 BABIP currently), Salazar can bring his ERA under 4.00, but it's hard to see him reaching Top 25 status at this rate. Buy low, but be prepared for some rough outings.
@allinkid: grab him. All closers should be owned, and if FAAB, prob $10-15
Yes, Kyle Farnsworth is now a must-own in all leagues. What makes Farnsworth attractive, besides those stylish glasses, is that the Mets options behind him are far from desirable. Gonzalez German has been a bit shaky and like Jeurys Familia, he lacks closer experience. Carlos Torres has some potential, but doesn't seem to be next in line, and Vic Black is down in Triple-A. As long as Farnsworth stays healthy – cross your fingers, use both hands, toes too! – he should hold on to the gig, even though it won't be pretty at times.
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