Is There Value in Any of the MLB Divisional Races?
With the MLB season over 40 percent of the way done, we can start to look at whether or not there’s some value to be had in divisional races throughout the league.
Below you can look at the current odds for every team in MLB and the value prices that some of these teams have on the BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Chicago White Sox entered the year as sizeable favorites at -200 to win the AL Central, but the Minnesota Twins are the current leaders of the division at 37-28, with odds of +105 to come out on top. The White Sox are 5-games back of the Twins for the top spot, and there were much higher expectations for the team heading into the season. The Detroit Tigers were a popular pick with tickets, owning 51%, while the Twins own 19.8%, followed by the White Sox at 15.2%. There wasn’t a lot of value in the White Sox to begin the season at that price, which likely explains why the Tigers held a slight lead in the handle, taking in 31.2% of the money, compared to 31.1% from Chicago. There should be some value here in the Cleveland Guardians, who’ve hung around in the race and sit just 2.5-games back of Minnesota. The Guardians have odds of +500, and that’s an excellent price for Jose Ramirez’s squad.
|AL Central||Opening Odds||Current Odds|
|Chicago White Sox||-200||125|
|Kansas City Royals||1000||50000|
The New York Yankees got out of the gate hot in the AL East and have been the most consistent team in baseball this season. The Bronx Bombers boast the best record in baseball at 46-16 and have a nice gap atop the division, with a nine-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays. As a result, the Yankees are big favorites to continue on this path and win the division at -400, but there’s likely some value in Toronto at +400 and Tampa Bay at +1300. There’s still nearly 60 percent of the season to play, and both the Rays and Blue Jays have rosters that can make runs. Four teams in this division own ticket percentages over 15%, with the Blue Jays leading the way with 33.5% of tickets. The money has seen a large chunk head toward the Yankees, who own 50.5% of the handle, compared to the Blue Jays at 30.3%.
|AL East||Opening Odds||Current Odds|
|Boston Red Sox||400||3000|
|New York Yankees||200||-400|
|Tampa Bay Rays||325||1300|
|Toronto Blue Jays||200||400|
Much like the Yankees, the Houston Astros have gotten off to a great start to the year and own a near double-digit game lead atop the AL West. The Astros possess a record of 39-24, which has them 9.5-games ahead of the Texas Rangers. Houston opened the year with -140 odds to win the division, and that number has skyrocketed to -1200 after the four teams below them haven’t shown any consistency. It’s hard to see someone in this division dethroning the Astros, who haven’t drawn much interest in the betting market. Houston holds just 13.4% of tickets and 27.5% of the handle, with the Los Angeles Angels leading the way in both categories with 35.5% of tickets and 34.9% of the money.
|AL West||Opening Odds||Current Odds|
|Los Angeles Angels||375||1000|
The NL Central was likely a two-horse race heading into the season between the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. That’s held true at this point, with the Cardinals holding a 1.5-game lead on the division while owning odds of +120. The Brewers are still favorites at this point with odds of -160, but there’s likely more value in what the Cards offer with plus-money value. St. Louis has generated a lot of interest in the NL Central, garnering 40.1% of tickets and 39.3% of the handle, while the Brewers sit with 12.4% of tickets and 42.3% of the handle.
|NL Central||Opening Odds||Current Odds|
|St. Louis Cardinals||220||120|
The New York Mets got off to a torrid start in the NL East, but the red-hot Atlanta Braves have won 14 straight games, cutting the division lead to just four games. The Mets opened the year as the odds-on favorite at +140, while the Braves were just behind them at +160. The Mets are big favorites to win the division at -275, while the Braves are likely a value pick to target at +250. You can also make a case for the Philadelphia Phillies, who’ve played good baseball in June but have a more significant uphill climb at +1100. Those Phillies own the highest amount of tickets with 43.8%, compared to the Mets at 21.6% and the Braves at 21.4%.
|NL East||Opening Odds||Current Odds|
|New York Mets||140||-275|
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the odds-on favorite to win the World Series this season and entered the year with odds of -150 to win the NL West. This division was going to have its challengers in the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, but it’s been the Dodgers division to lose. That said, the Dodgers have let the Giants and Padres hang around, with both teams within three games of first place. The Colorado Rockies got a lot of attention at their opening price of +4000 and own 34.4% of tickets to lead the division, making them the NL West’s most significant liability. The money has primarily gone towards two teams, with the Rockies holding 41.6% of the handle, followed by the Dodgers with 38.5%. With Fernando Tatis Jr. still recovering from an injury and not having played a game this year, it’s not a bad idea to hope he comes back for the stretch run and leads the Padres to a division title, who boast excellent value at +250.
|NL West||Opening Odds||Current Odds|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||-150||-250|
|San Diego Padres||275||250|
|San Francisco Giants||350||800|