July 24 MLB DFS Picks: Use Papi To Make Some Cash-ner
July 24 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
It's another exciting night in MLB DFS as both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering six figure prize pools! Mike Leone of the DailyRoto Daily Fantasy Rundown shares some picks and analysis to help get you started with your lineups.
David Ortiz (BOS) – It’s no secret by now that Ortiz is one of our favorite DFS plays, and he seems perpetually underpriced across the industry, particularly on DraftKings ($3,700). Even if you fill in 40 percent of your budget on DraftKings with pitching, that still leaves you with an average cost per hitter left of just over $3,700. Now things aren’t perfect with Ortiz (lower hard hit rate, higher GB rate), but he’s still put together a 144 wRC+ and .259 ISO against RHP, both marks are better than last season’s. Perhaps most importantly today he faces a struggling Justin Verlander. It’s possible Verlander eventually shakes off the rust, but we’ll keep picking on him until that actually happens. In six starts he has a 6.62 ERA, and it’s tough to blame that on luck given a 6.06 FIP, 5.02 xFIP and 16.4 hard minus soft hit rate. He’s given up at least six earned runs in half of the starts, including seven in two of his past three and multiple homers in half of his games. This is what happens when you have the lowest K rate of your career, lowest GB rate and lowest soft hit rate.
Andrew Cashner (SD) – Cashner, on both single and multi starting pitcher sites, is one of the best ways to capture a combination of upside and safety at starting pitcher while still being able to get a healthy amount of exposure to expensive bats, particularly Coors Field. The Marlins were a team we picked on with RHP when they were at full strength, and now they’re out Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton, two of their top three hitters in the order. The Marlins are 29th in wRC+ against RHP on the season and strike out at a slightly above average clip. The particular lineup they are currently throwing out is the one we have projected as the worst by wRC of the teams in action tonight, taking into account opposing pitcher handedness. Cashner is listed as a -136 favorite at home (very favorable pitcher’s park), in a game with the lowest total on the night (6.5). Cashner can be frustrating to own at times and isn’t someone I’d peg as consistent. Ultimately, though he has a decent set of skills (a bit above average across the board – K, BB and GB rates) and the matchup is so elite that he can be used in all formats. I’m admittedly still torn on whether or not to pay up for a top two tier starting pitcher on FanDuel, which will eliminate a lot of Coors exposure, or go with the lesser pitcher in Cashner, which allows plenty of Coors exposure. On multi-SP sites like DraftKings, it’s actually not that difficult to pair Kluber and Cashner and still get Coors exposure.
Like what you see? We go way more in-depth at DailyRoto.com, with advice from Drew Dinkmeyer, Mike Leone, and others, that produced three Millionaire Maker winners in 2014
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