July 31 MLB DFS Picks: Polanco A Superb Value
July 31 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
It's another exciting night in MLB DFS as both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering six figure prize pools! Drew Dinkmeyer of the DailyRoto Daily Fantasy Rundown shares some picks and analysis to help get you started with your lineups.
Gregory Polanco (PIT) – Polanco leads off for one of the offenses with the highest implied run totals, he has the platoon advantage, is on the road getting a big park shift, and he’s cheap. This is a great recipe for DFS success. Opposing starter Michael Lorenzen has allowed a ridiculous .454 wOBA and 2.22 HR/9 to LHBs as a big leaguer. The underlying peripherals explain the disastrous results. He’s walked 14.6 percent of LHBs and allowed 34.7 percent of balls in play to qualify as hard contact while posting a miniscule 12.2 percent soft hit rate. Polanco hasn’t dominated RHP like we’d hoped but he’s been adequate (.316 wOBA, .129 ISO) while playing in a very tough park. He gets a huge park shift in his favor tonight and the Reds nearly all righty bullpen is a huge plus given he’s so weak against lefties (.216 wOBA). The one knock on Polanco is he’s playing through a knee injury and historically he’s created a lot of value with his legs. This limits his upside some, but the price tag is cheap enough that we’ll gladly rely on his bat this evening.
Danny Salazar (CLE) – Many of the same factors that led to Carrasco ranking as our #2 starter yesterday are in play again this evening with Danny Salazar. Like Carrasco, Salazar has elite peripherals led by an outstanding K Rate (28.8 percent) but his run prevention (3.72 ERA) struggles due to problems with the long ball (1.21 HR/9). His batted ball profile isn’t that bad. He’s generated a 45.8 percent GB Rate and allowed a 28 percent hard hit rate overall. Both are around league average. His HR/FB Rate has been a bit elevated (14.9 percent) but most of that inflated ERA is due to a lower than average strand rate. Over time, we expect Salazar to pitch closer to his peripherals (3.48 FIP, 3.01 xFIP). A matchup in Oakland where home runs are depressed 6-7 percent below the league average, provides Salazar some likely relief on that elevated HR/FB Rate and should help keep his run prevention down. This environment fits his skill set well, making him a bit safer than usual. He’s a modest favorite (-122) in a game with a total of just seven and he ranks solidly as our #2 starter behind Kershaw. The price point on Salazar is more palatable around the industry than Kershaw which makes him a fine alternative if you don’t want to spend all the way up for Kershaw.
Like what you see? We go way more in-depth at DailyRoto.com, with advice from Drew Dinkmeyer, Mike Leone, and others, that produced three Millionaire Maker winners in 2014
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