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Pitchers with the highest optimal probabilities: Aaron Nola, Alex Wood

Aaron Nola is coming into tonight’s start against the Miami Marlins off a gem against the Milwaukee Brewers, where he didn’t allow a run over eight innings pitched. He’ll be facing a rather confident Marlins club that has won five of their past six and ranks right outside the top ten in most offensive categories over the past two weeks. We know what pitcher Nola can be when pitching to his ceiling. However, inconsistent performances often get in his way. Paired with his high strikeout ceiling and the fact that he is currently walking opponents at the lowest clip of his career, the inconsistent Nola performances have been further apart. Nola is expecting to eclipse 30% ownership on our slate while being priced over $10,000 on DraftKings, but there is still reason to believe Nola can put up a gem as his xERA is at the lowest point of his career, making him a worthy play. 

Alex Wood is facing off against a Kansas City Royals offense with the fewest wins in baseball and ranks near the bottom of every offensive category. Wood is not a high-caliber pitcher and is often at the top of our optimal board, but only against favorable opponents. He has enough in the tank to put up a strong performance, with an xERA hanging below 4.00 and an xFIP at the lowest point of his career. His strikeout numbers are not eye-popping, but he should be able to compensate for 5-6 strikeouts, which can be enough if we can get roughly six innings while only allowing a run or two. How feasible is that? Well, through eleven starts, Wood has pitched more than six innings once this season and allowed an earned run or less in three, so the numbers aren’t in our favor despite the poor opponent. Wood’s affordable $8,300 price tag on DraftKings is enticing against this offense but fading him still seems more valuable given the expected high ownership and uncertainty.