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Pitchers seeing the most leverage: Blake Snell, Lance Lynn

Blake Snell is shaping up to be the top leverage pitcher in our projections as he’ll go up against the New York Mets tonight. Snell has had an underwhelming season in his limited appearances. Still, there is reason to believe there is a turnaround ahead for him as his ERA and xERA have a pretty noticeable gap from an ERA of 5.22 to an xERA of 3.59. His strikeout production is still present as his strikeout rate approaches 30%, which is what we mainly have to rely on. Longevity is a concern for Snell, too, as he hasn’t eclipsed the sixth inning yet this season, but he has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts in a hurry when he is on his game.

The Mets have not had a great July at the plate as they rank in the bottom half of baseball in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+, which is not a way to be swinging a bat with the Atlanta Braves closing the gap on them in the NL East. They had a bad start to the second half of the season last night as Yu Darvish tossed a gem against them, so they need a jolt and fast to stay afloat. We know Snell hasn’t been great this year, but the Mets have been pretty lifeless lately. There is undoubtedly a high upside to be had with Snell, given the leverage, and some things should be breaking his way soon. 

Lance Lynn also finds himself near the top of the leverage board ahead of his matchup tonight against the Cleveland Guardians. The White Sox were hoping for Lynn to be a spark for their pitching staff when he returned to the rotation from injury, but he has been dreadful for them thus far. He has allowed at least five runs in four of his last five starts and a dropoff in his strikeout production. Among those four games was an outing against Cleveland, where he gave up eight earned runs over four innings. No wonder we are expecting his ownership to be low. 

Lynn’s xERA and xFIP are in the 4.00-4.50 range, which may not be the best numbers, but it certainly gives us something to work with. Cleveland has had a pretty productive July offensively as they rank in the top 10 in wOBA and wRC+. The Guardians hitters can always get some decent contact as they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season, which is not ideal for a freefalling pitcher struggling to stack the strikeouts. Avoiding Lynn in this matchup looks to be the safe play, but the low ownership and cheap salary are both present if you wanted to take a shot on the 2021 Lance Lynn magically reappearing.