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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using the top 6 projected hitters for each team. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Blue Jays, Braves

The Toronto Blue Jays is our top optimal stack going into tonight’s slate while being the most expensive. They’ll be facing Kyle Bradish, who has allowed at least two runs in each of his eight starts this season. It is safe to say that the high-powered Blue Jays offense will get something off of Bradish tonight, but how much do they get, and will it be enough to make the high ownership and steep price worth it? Over the past month, the Jays have been first in wOBA, wRC+, and HardHit, while being near the top in everything else. Plus, they rarely strike out as they have struck out at the third-lowest clip during that same period. Bradish allowing comparable HardHit% and Barrel% metrics to Toronto’s seasonal numbers offers the Jays even more opportunity. If you are one to chase high-risk, high-reward opportunities, this is a great play. 

The Atlanta Braves enter tonight looking to extend their win streak to 12 games, with Josiah Gray taking the mound for the Washington Nationals. Over the past two weeks, Atlanta has been hitting the cover off the ball, ranking in the top four of ISO, wOBA, wRC+, Barrel%, and HardHit%. Gray was the main piece of the Max Scherzer trade, but his xERA and xFIP still hover around 4.50. He has struggled, giving up power while not seeing overwhelming strikeout production. Through 12 starts, Gray has not pitched more than six innings in an outing, so we’ll likely see a good chunk of the Nationals’ bullpen tonight that ranks in the bottom five in allowed ERA, hits, and earned runs among all bullpens. The Braves will undoubtedly have their opportunities against Gray and the bullpen, so the high price and ownership still hold value.