MLB DFS: Braves, Blue Jays Top Optimal Stacks for Friday

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Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top 6 projected hitters. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Braves, Blue Jays

The Atlanta Braves enter tonight’s slate as the top stack on our optimal board ahead of their matchup against Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals. Corbin has not been good for the Nationals as his ERA and xERA both approach 6.00, with his strikeout production struggling at a mere 19%. Corbin was simply dreadful in two previous matchups against Atlanta, with a combined ten earned runs given up over a combined 8.2 innings pitched.

The Braves have had a very productive July at the plate thus far as they rank in the top six in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Since June, they have been a different baseball team that can inflict damage on any pitcher from the top to the bottom of their lineup. This stack will be pretty expensive as sometimes you have to pay for quality, but we do not anticipate them being too grossly owned. Corbin has shown nothing to give us confidence that he’ll have a strong outing and will probably not be able to limit this potent offense, so taking this stack is a safe play.

The Toronto Blue Jays’ stack is near the top leverage board as they face the COVID-stricken Kansas City Royals with Zack Greinke on the hill. At this point in his career, Greinke is just collecting a paycheck as he doesn’t have that much in the tank left. His strikeout percentage is near the bottom of the league among all pitchers at 12.5%, and his xERA is near the worst at 5.51. It is only fitting that Corbin has the worst xERA in baseball. 

The Blue Jays feature a potent lineup that has not performed to their seasonal numbers as of late. Nothing serious, but being outside the top ten in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past two weeks is considered slumping by the Blue Jays’ standards. This stack is coming in fairly expensive but still reasonably priced, given the upside of this lineup. In comparing both of our top stacks, the Braves look to be lower owned than the Blue Jays, but the Braves have been performing better as of late and have a slightly worse opponent. Both stacks still hold value, with the lean going in favor of Atlanta.