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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top 6 projected hitters. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.

Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Braves, Orioles

The Atlanta Braves find themselves near the top of the optimal board for tonight’s slate, but they are also the stack seeing the most leverage ahead of their showdown with Shohei Ohtani. The Braves offense has been flat-out awesome since the beginning of June, ranking in the top four in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ since. They have consistently struggled with striking out, which certainly will not help Ohtani on the mound, as he has the second highest strikeout rate in baseball among all pitchers with a minimum of 80 innings thrown. 

Ohtani has been the only thing going for an Angels team in a downward spiral, responsible for six of the 12 wins the Angels have had since May 25. His xERA and xFIP only trail Shane McClanahan which is all you need to know to quantify Ohtani’s position among baseball’s elite pitchers. Ohtani’s presence is opening up the window of leverage for the Braves stack, which is the most expensive stack on the slate by a decent margin. The computer seems to like the Braves’ chances in this matchup as they are near the top of the optimal board, but fading Ohtani, especially at the price of the Braves’ stack, feels like you could be playing with fire. 

How about the Baltimore Orioles? The O’s caught fire before the all-star break with a ten-game winning streak en route to a .500 record, a victory in and of itself for Baltimore. They find themselves near the top of the leverage board ahead of their matchup against Jameson Taillon, looking to carry over the success they found at the beginning of the month. Taillon has put together an excellent season for the Yankees as his ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all below 4.00 without the crazy strikeout numbers to go with it.

Tonight will be the O’s fourth time seeing Taillon this season, and they have seen the ball well out of his hand so far. Over a combined 14.1 innings, Taillon gave up seven earned runs, which could excite the Orioles, who have ranked outside the top ten in July in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. The Orioles’ stack is still priced very cheap, so there is some upside in a leverage situation against a pitcher they have already performed well against.