MLB DFS: Braves, Phillies Top Optimal Stacks for Wednesday

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Stack optimal probabilities are calculated by using the top 6 projected hitters for each team. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Braves, Phillies

The Braves have been hitting the cover off the ball over the past two weeks, ranking top two in the majors in ISO, Barrel%, HardHit%, and top five in wOBA and wRC+. They get an opportunity to potentially tee off against Jared Koenig of the A’s, who will be making his first-career MLB appearance tonight. Through nine appearances (eight starts) in triple-A, Koenig pitched well, posting a near 2.00 ERA with a K% that approached 30%. Described by many scouts as a strong and polished pitcher who does not necessarily feature overpowering stuff, Koenig will have his work cut out for him against the stacked Braves lineup. It is enticing to back a lineup that is swinging the bat well against a pitcher in his first start, but the Braves are the most expensive stack on the slate and are expected to be the highest owned as well. Fading the Braves could be an exciting and bold strategy based on the chance the Braves have no clue what to expect from Koenig, but Atlanta has been hitting the ball too well not to have some action on this stack. 

Philadelphia is gushing with confidence as Alec Bohm, and Matt Vierling had a combined three home runs going into last night, each hit a home run off of Josh Hader in the ninth inning to give the Phillies the victory. After Joe Girardi’s firing, the Phillies pulled off an incredible weekend sweep and then followed up with a win over Hader. What’s not to like about the Phils right now? Tonight will be Philadelphia’s second time seeing Adrian Houser this season. They previously knocked in three runs over six innings pitched. By no means is that dominant performance, but this Phillies squad is rolling, and they’re hitting everything at the moment. Expect the Phillies to see material ownership compared to their optimal probability without being overly expensive, which still provides some solid value. Grabbing a confident team that appears to have turned their season around with a new manager feels like a clever play.