MLB DFS: Brewers, Red Sox Top Optimal Stacks for Friday

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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

HIGHEST OPTIMAL PROBABILITY TEAM STACK: BREWERS

The Milwaukee Brewers team stack sits atop the optimal board in preparation for their battle with Zach Davies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Brewers’ offense has been swinging the bats well lately, and they have a desirable power upside to be had given their fourth-best ISO over the past two weeks. Their Barrel% and HardHit% are also in strong, top-six positions, which provides us with hope for a potential increase in their wOBA and wRC+ in the games to come with a few favorable breaks. 

Davies is a serviceable pitcher who isn’t one to usually get shelled by the opposition. He doesn’t strike out too many as his K% doesn’t eclipse 18% while having struggled to limit the long ball. We see his seasonal allowed Barrel% and HardHit% a little bit lower than expected, so the Brewers shouldn’t be counting their chickens just yet. This stack is looking to be affordable at an average price of about $3,850 on DraftKings. We expect their stack ownership to come in similar to their optimal probability. Given the price and low expected ownership, this looks like a very desirable play with a clear power upside.

RED SOX HOPE TO REMAIN HOT

The Boston Red Sox team stack looks to be near the top of the optimal board for tonight’s slate as they prepare to face Dallas Keuchel and the Texas Rangers. Make no mistake about it, Keuchel has been dreadful this season. It is almost a crime he is still collecting an MLB paycheck as he is now on his third club this year. Over 13 starts, we see his ERA approaching 9.00 with pretty dreadful strikeout production at about 14%. He let up seven earned runs in each of his last two starts, and although his expected ERA does drop to the mid-5.00 range, it is difficult to find confidence in this guy regardless.

The Red Sox have been swinging their bats well recently, but a little too late as they are last in the AL East with minimal odds of catching a miracle and making the postseason. Over the past two weeks, Boston has ranked in the top two in wOBA and wRC+ while still sporting a top ten ISO ranking. They have already faced Keuchel twice this season, and they knocked in eight earned runs off of him in a combined eight innings. Safe to say, they are pretty familiar with him. This stack is seeing a slight uptick in ownership, but it isn’t overly expensive to where it loses value. Keuchel’s struggles could make up for that and some.