MLB DFS: Padres, Rockies Top Leverage Stacks for Friday

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Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Padres, Rockies

The new-look San Diego Padres look to be in the most enticing leverage scenario on tonight’s slate as they face off against Tony Gonsolin and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gonsolin’s success has been a welcomed surprise for the Dodgers in a year where their rotation is depleted. He has performed well with a 2.41 ERA, and although there is an increase in his expected ERA, the Dodgers will gladly take the 12 victories on his record and hope for continued success. July has not been great for him as his ERA rose from 1.54 to 2.41, but within that month was a stellar outing against the Padres where he only allowed a single run over seven innings while tallying eight strikeouts. 

San Diego’s offense is the talk of baseball right now with the Juan Soto acquisition, so it is only fitting that he is thrown right into the fire in a rivalry game against the team they are chasing in the standings. The Padres have been strong out of the all-star break. Over the last two weeks, they have ranked in the top seven in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Add Soto to an already streaking offense, and you are cooking with some gas. Gonsolin is no pushover, but he has not been elite over his past few starts, whereas this offense has been lethal lately. Taking a shot on this fairly expensive stack that is only expected to see minimal ownership is a high upside play if you have the financial flexibility.

The Colorado Rockies join the Padres near the top of the leverage board as they’ll get the Coors Field boost against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Bumgarner has had a pretty blah season that could get worse, as his actual to expected ERA climbs from 3.83 to 5.00, making him one of six qualified pitchers in baseball with an xERA of at least 5.00. His strikeout production is in the gutter, and his walks are up. In one appearance against the Rockies this year, not at Coors Field, Bumgarner actually faired decently, allowing two earned runs over seven innings. 

The Rockies don’t offer much offensively when they are not in Colorado, but luckily, they are back in their home clubhouse tonight. The Coors boost helps them greatly as they would be an identity-less offense without it, but going into tonight, we still are seeing low ownership with this stack. Bumgarner has not been great at all, so the Rockies will have opportunities to do damage against him. Taking this reasonably priced stack with minimal ownership can become a high upside play due to the opponent.