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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Phillies, Astros

The Philadelphia Phillies’ team stack takes the crown as tonight’s top optimal stack ahead of their matchup against Paolo Espino and the Washington Nationals. The Phils have not been the greatest offensively lately, as they rank in the league’s bottom half in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past two weeks. Tonight, they are expected to get one of their best hitters back into their lineup from injury in Jean Segura, along with Nick Castellanos looking to have found himself finally over the past week that culminated with his first home run since June yesterday. 

Paolo Espino does not offer too much opposition for the Phillies as both his xERA and xFIP approach 5.00, he struggles giving up power, and his strikeout production is minimal. In his first two appearances against the Phillies over a combined 8.2 innings of work, he allowed seven runs (six earned) that included three home runs. The Phillies’ stack has an enticing average price tag that is south of $4000, which is why they are expected to be overly owned. Given Espino’s struggles and the fact that there will be an extra level of energy in Citizens Bank Park tonight, this stack still holds excellent value with a high upside.

The Houston Astros look to join the Phillies at the top of the optimal board as they’ll be going up against Zach Plesac and the Cleveland Guardians. The Astros feature one of baseball’s best offenses, and they have proved it consistently all season with ranks in the top seven in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ and a sub-20% strikeout rate. 

Zach Plesac has not had himself too great of a season, and the Astros should be licking their chops going into tonight’s game. He has the second worst xERA in baseball among all qualified pitchers and has had a rough July with an ERA that approached 6.00 over five starts. The Astros stack will be the most expensive on the slate, where most of the stacks are looking to come in underpriced, but we do not expect it to be too grossly owned as it currently looks comparable to their optimal projection. Backing this squad is a solid play despite the price, as they are a consistent offense that shouldn’t have too much difficulty with a struggling pitcher in Plesac.