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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using the top 6 projected hitters for each team. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Red Sox, Blue Jays

The Boston Red Sox are the top optimal stack on our board while expected to be the highest owned stack at one of the highest prices. It is not like the Red Sox have an over-powering offense from top to bottom, ranking in the middle of the pack offensively over the past two weeks. They will be facing a dreadful Detroit Tigers team, but their starter tonight, Alex Faedo, has performed reasonably well this season. He had an atrocious start in his most previous outing, but up until that point, he found himself with a sub-3.00 ERA while being highly consistent. Faedo is not a stud, but he is far from a pushover. Boston has some pieces in their lineup, but they have not had the absolute dominance of teams like the Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, or Toronto Blue Jays. Faedo is no stiff, so playing the Red Sox as if he were one, with high ownership, and at a high-priced stack is a poor play.

Unlike the Red Sox, the Blue Jays have a fear-inducing offense capable of an offensive onslaught at all times. In June, Toronto ranks in the top three in ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and HardHit% while striking out at the third-lowest mark in the league. They’ll be facing Lance Lynn in his second start of the season, who had a poor performance in his first start against the Tigers, of all teams, and was not good in his three rehab starts in Triple-A either. Lynn still has something, given his dominance last season, so we can not write him off, but this is a time where we approach Lynn with a ‘we’ll believe it when we see it’ attitude. Take the Blue Jays’ stack over the aforementioned Red Sox’s stack, and you’ll be getting a better offense against a pitcher who has shown nothing good this season at lower ownership. Side with the Blue Jays here with confidence as they have demonstrated time and time again they can pay off their high price and usual high ownership.