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Pitchers with the highest optimal probabilities: Shohei Ohtani, Carlos Rodon

Shohei Ohtani will be taking the mound as tonight’s top pitcher on our optimal board, looking to continue his dominance. The fifth-highest strikeout percentage in baseball at 31.2%, and an xERA and xFIP hovering around 3.00. Ohtani has actually improved off of his spectacular season on the mound last year. He’ll be facing a Kansas City Royals squad that stinks but has been swinging the bats nicely over the past two weeks, ranking top seven in baseball in ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and runs scored while striking out at the lowest mark in the league. At $8500 on DraftKings, Ohtani is underpriced, and as a result, he could become chalky quickly. If you take away that the Royals only have 25 wins and look at their offensive production over the past two weeks, would you trail a very high-owned Ohtani? You still may, given his ideal price point, but fading the public and hoping the Royals can continue their recent success is also a viable play with tremendous upside. 

Carlos Rodon should enter into tonight’s game oozing with confidence, coming off back-to-back scoreless starts, allowing four hits over a combined 14 innings. He also had 16 strikeouts in those two outings, illustrating his consistent high strikeout upside with his 30.5% strikeout percentage on the year. He‘ll be going up against the Atlanta Braves, who have been the best offense in June, ranking first in ISO and wOBA during the month. Rodon is expected to come in severely under-owned given his strong opposition while being the most expensive arm on the slate. His strikeout upside is not going anywhere as the Braves have struck out at the second-highest clip this year. He also offers us consistency, allowing two or fewer runs in 11 of 13 starts this year. Grabbing the leverage on Rodon as a top pitcher is an intelligent play with a high ceiling, especially in the strikeout department.